Splinterlands - To Get Air Drop Or Not To Get Air Drop?

in Splinterlands2 years ago


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There are a little over 50,000 packs away from air drop number #7. Splinterlands officially posted the new air drop card : Post Here. Within that post it refer's to @nealmcspadden , post link here, regarding the current best estimate of air drops per packs purchased. To keep it short and sweet Neal 263 to 525 packs per an air drop. He has numbers to back up this estimate but moving forward I am assuming that is the range per an air drop moving forward.

Air Drop Summoners

With a total of 14 air drops and once the 7th one starts there are only 7 more spots left to fill. Assuming like the previous Untamed series air drop we will see each splinter having 1 legendary summoner air dropped that will equate to 6 of the 7 air drop spots remaining. Odds will increase in getting an air drop summoner now since the potential future drops are more likely to be summoners than not.

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In the Untamed series excluding Camila all the legendary summoners air drops have seen their value appreciate quite a bit since they went on circulation. Often summoners cost more since they are required in order to play any battle. Potential for the Chaos Legions legends to appreciate in price in my opinion is already set in stone that they will do so. Legend summoners across all series are in high demand and we can confirm just looking at the prices and limited supply in the open market.

Pack Opening For Legendary Summoner

Neal did a quick over arithmetic on the estimate of how many legendaries have been pull from packs. I thought I would piggy back off it is with a slightly different approach. Currently from the start of Chaos there is one legendary summoner that can be pulled from packs. Quix the Devious!

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Which makes a grand total of around 2,842,000 / 12,693 = 224 packs opens to get a legendary summoner. Of course this is just an estimate as cards pulls in the end are random but its a good number to look for if one assumes they rather go buy packs after air drop than to be buying packs for the air drop.

The odds of getting a legendary summoner through buying packs in game seems to have be better odds. For instance buy at least 525 packs will mostly likely earn you an air drop. While buying the same packs after market you maybe able to pull two summoners with 525 / 224 just a little over 2.

Another way to look at it is dividing the current 12,693 summoner cards over all the Chaos cards currently pulled from packs, ~14.21 million, would get us 0.000893 or 0.0893% of all Chaos cards ever to be opened and in circulation is a legendary summoner. This of course will change once more summoners are introduced since that increases the potential of pulling multiple legendary summoners. So we can assume the 0.0893% is the worse case odds of getting a legendary summoner.

That would mean the remaining 12.16 million unopened packs in total worse case will have around 108,570 legendary summoners to be pulled. Again this number would increase as more summoners gets introduced into the series.

In Untamed in total all legendary summoners currently in circulation are under 30k for regular version. This excludes the combined cards and just considering BCX. If I done the math correctly we are expecting to see for the Chaos series over 108k legendary summoners if and when all packs are opened.

Conclusions

There are multiple ways to get those upcoming Chaos legendary summoners. The simpliest way is to buy them in the market when they start selling, other prices will be based on supply and demand. Other options are to participate in the air drops by buying less packs in games than to buy more packs in the open market. Currently a Chaos pack is selling for around $3 on the open market. Which ever way you decide the outcome will remain the same. I have my eyes for legendary summoners.

Until next time thanks for reading!!!



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I think that the legendary summoners is what we are all waiting for. I've been buying packs and am waiting ot open them so that I have a chance to get legendary summoners if I open them after the airdrops.


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Nice analysis and post. Thanks for taking the time for that.

What is your plan as the legendary summoners enter the pool?

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The 500 for current airdrops is because the total pool of legendaries has increased. So the chances of getting a specific legendary have gone down. As more and more packs are opened, you'll see the rate of a single legendary (e.g. Quix) go down.