It's amazing to study the psychology of this market and how its participants can turn from overly bullish to overly bearish in less than a day. I find my emotions often times hard to tame as well, but mostly on the bullish side rather than the bearish one.
I've gone through a full bear market and this is my first bull one. I've waited it for almost four years and not planning on getting out of it without life changing money. That's my plan.
There are quite a few voices especially on twitter being quite fearful about a potential bear market ahead. I'd say they're nuts... Only by looking at DOGE and one can realize that there's still plenty of room to the upside. Dogecoin is often times the altcoin season trigger and I believe this cycle won't be any different.
Just looking at its chart and knowing this fact and you can at least envision how high will alts go and that there's definitely more room to the upside for Bitcoin to...
From a technical standpoint - it took 3 weeks for #BTC to fully confirm a Bear Market when it peaked at $20,000 in late 2017
People calling for a Bear Market with absolute certainty after only 5 days since $BTC rejected from ~$65,000 are doing so with no confirmation
Rektcapital
I don't know about you, but I'd say there are 0% chances that we will have a bear market in the near future. My take is that May will be the month we'll witness one of the strongest altcoin rallies this cycle, followed by a cooling down period in July-August and a peak by the end of the year, probably fall of this year.
What do you think, What Are The Chances For a Bear Market in Crypto?
Thanks for attention,
Adrian
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Well since it's either Bear season or Bull season I'm gonna go with a statistical answer. 50%
Spot on 😁
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Well, half the time anyway
I think there are certainly some strong arguments that fall in line with what you are thinking here. I hope it is correct!
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We haven't seem hype, euphoria and FOMO yet, that's why I think we're not there yet. We're still in mild waters.
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@acesontop Good points from you...one thing I have observed recently is that this year tend to be the season for altcoins as most of them are really doing well on the market...
I could see the usual Capital Markets like NYSE going flat only to be slightly reflated by moore printed Trillions. With some of that cash going into the Crypto Markets.
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That could be possible.
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I can't say for sure, of course. But I would be very, very surprised if this was the end of this bull cycle. Most altcoins that were around in 2017/2018 haven't even surpassed their previous all-time highs.
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I won't say zero but it is more likely that the bullish trend will continue but there are psychological points in the market. Most altcoins are either replica of a particular or just random coin without a framework.
On all with btc going up, altcoins will do better in terms of percentage.
Dogecoin, xrp and BNB are my best bets for the alt season. Then the defi space will be fully explored.
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My personal assessment is that at its current and for some reasonable future BTC and Crypto at large are in a unique situation akin to "stagflation" except that it is a "Bearish Boom," such that even though the crypto and now NFT markets are in a perceived late stage for those in the know a la knowing the various single day +-50%<->100% spikes/dips thinking that these movements are unsustainable and thus must, according to traditional economics enter a bear market eventually. The only thing is 60+% of crypto speculators are HODLers which according to that positioning means it is a bear market already. It gets weird when you consider that crypto and NFT as a wave have not truly even broken as such they are not yet ubiquitous and are currently simply speculative value stores for wealthy nations. When it matures and truly starts "booming" it will be so much more a la individual agency and wealth generation.
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If May will be the strongest altcoin rallies, will BTC still have one?
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Definitely. I still believe BTC will reach over $300,000 this year. I think though that it will occur after the altcoin season. When alts will have a breather before the blow off phase. The best strategy would be to sell alts for BTC and once again sell BTC for alts right before the peak and finally dump alts for stable coins.
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