World Test Championship Final : Betting Analysis

in LeoFinance10 months ago

In a few hours time the ICC Test Cricket Championship Final is being played by India and Australia at The Oval in England. This match is the culmination of 2 years of competitive Test Cricket so it’s a fairly prestigious and important event even though the Championship itself is still fairly new. As a cricket lover and a punter it’s a game that’s definitely on the radar as it is being followed up by the Ashes Series in England so it's important form for Australia heading into that series. I normally look for a betting edge in games like this one and when I do I ask myself the same question as I do in general investing - What is the market getting wrong? I think I’ve found a few things leading into this game...


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1. Form Lines

Australia very recently toured India and lost the 4 match test series 2-1 on some very dry spinning wickets. On the surface this looks like good form for India but really they had incredibly favourable local conditions to play on and Australia were very competitive. The first game was a bit of an ambush as Australia collapsed to the Indian spin attack, but they were competitive in the 2nd game and came back to win the 3rd test to take the series momentum. In the 4th test the local Indians produced an absolute road to protect the series lead as that test could have gone for 7 days (instead of 5) and still ended in a draw. So the final series result is a little misleading because the late momentum was definitely with Australia – not India.


2. Conditions

Although The Oval is technically a neutral venue in England, the conditions are much more likely to be similar to Australian conditions than Indian. The Oval does tend to take a bit of spin, but reports from County matches this year have suggested it’s a fast, possibly green-tinged wicket that has plenty of carry. This is really important since Australia has one of the best fast bowling attacks in the world and India are missing their best fast bowler Jasprit Bumrah. True cricket pundits understand the value of favourable conditions – especially the pitch – but the market often undervalues this factor.


3. Preparations

Perhaps the most significant of all. The cricket world has been largely focused on the Indian Premier League which ran through most of April and May – having literally finished just over a week ago. Most of the Indian players played in this tournament so not only are they likely to be fatigued by such an intense schedule, but the format of the IPL is T20 cricket which is as far from Test Cricket as you can get. In my opinion the market is severely underestimating just how difficult it is for players to adjust back to Test cricket after playing 2 months of intense T20 cricket. The IPL is a big money tournament too so there is also a question over how hungry the Indians are going to be for this one off Test. There were a couple of Australians playing in the IPL but most are coming off a well rested and focused preparation with a couple of VERY key players playing County cricket in England so they will be well acclimatized to local conditions already.


My Bets

The market is always moving though I have backed Australia to win at 2.00. They have already shortened to 1.93 on BetFair in the last 24 hours but there is still some thin value there. The forecast is mostly clear and there IS a reserve day for this Test so a result is very likely and there is ZERO motivation for the curators to produce a road of a pitch that will result in a draw. I’m also backing the players who have been playing County cricket in England to be the Top Bats in the first 2 Innings and possibly the 3rd Innings too – depending on the game situation. I’ll be looking to lay off my substantial Australia bet around Day 4 or maybe late Day 3 at short odds. I’m targeting a price of about 1.10 to 1.20 to cover my stake and lock in some profit if it goes the way I am envisioning.

Australia to Win Match : 15 units @ 2.00
Marnus Labuschange Top Bat Australia : 1 unit @ 4.50
Cheteshwar Pujara Top Bat India : 1 unit @ 5.30

Good luck if you’re having a bet. Go Aussie!

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Being a regular at the Oval to watch Surrey's first class games, I can confirm that there has been a bit more grass on the pitches this year than in the past. That is probably due to it having been a fairly cool and wet Spring, at least up until a few weeks ago when they were still playing 4 day cricket there. Since then we've not had any rain...

It's also a ploy by the county to get early season results on a pitch that historically has been difficult to win matches within 4 days on. With a bowling attack of Roach, Worrall and Abbott it made sense to leave a little more in the surface for them to exploit although there are still runs on offer.

Difficult to know if it will spin because sides haven't been playing frontline spinners during that initial part of the county season.

It's also difficult to know how the pitch will be prepared for this match. I assume the ICC will have the final say rather than Surrey CCC but I'd imagine both parties will want the game to go for 5 days if possible. I'd expect it to be challenging for the first hour or so (it generally is anywhere in England) before becoming a pitch where batsmen can make runs.

It will be tough coming from the IPL into Test cricket but you could also make the argument that several of Australia's key players and particularly their bowlers are very undercooked.

I watched as much of the recent India vs Australia Test series as I could and I thought Cummins and Lyon in particular were very disappointing in the first match of that series. Yes, India created pitches that suited their squad (I think I'd have scored a 100 on that pitch in the final Test) but Australia started very slowly.

I think your bets are all good value. I might wait and see the sides, the pitch and the toss before placing any myself. Good Luck!

Outstanding comment from a Surrey fan at the ground! Thanks so much for the insight.

It is true that we might be a little bit underdone, but I'm confident that Australia will be well prepared to hit the ground running (literally). I think the slow start in India was more about adapting to foreign conditions. I also think that while organizers want to see 5 days of play for gate receipts, it is a bit of a problem if the final ends in a draw so they'd be better to err on the side of a result oriented pitch.

It's a punt regardless, I guess we will find out soon enough but it could very well be a bowl first wicket.

It's a big call to bowl first at the Oval. There is a bit of grass on it but I don't think it's playing badly and it'll only get better as the day/match goes on.

Big wicket to get Warner strangled down the leg-side just before lunch otherwise I think that bet on Australia was looking even better value.

I'll be back at the Oval for the Saturday and Sunday of the Ashes. Really looking forward to it!

Good call! I went to bed after the Labuschagne wicket and thought conditions were going to make it pretty tough but you were right - our boys batted long and the Indians are already wilting a bit.

Very jealous of you getting to the Ashes. I am quite excited about this series coming up and I really appreciate the aggressive style England has been playing of late. Should be a cracking match up!

I totally agree with your point, it is done in the same way and trying to make India win, the way I did during the last T20 World Cup umpair did not give no ball earlier when player Kohli asked him then he immediately gave it it was not no ball. When Pakistan and India were playing.

Such things have to be removed from cricket otherwise people will stop watching it the way we are all people who watch the matches with more passion and leave all their work when such things come up, the heart breaks. It gets very sad. Last time I remember we were all cousins. They went inside the depression.

When Pakistan and India have a match, it is the most watched match and there are many times that Pakistan has to do it themselves so that the people of India do not harm the Pakistanis living there. That's why we see India's batsman score so many good runs because they make the pitches the same way they make the players comfortable to play.

And now the way the Asia Cup is going to be held and this time it is to be held inside Pakistan and the Indians have flatly denied that they will not come to play here and if you talk to them, they say 90 percent. Whatever the funding is, India will do what it wants.

This is completely wrong. If Pakistan will not come this time, we have thought that Pakistan will not go to India to play the World Cup.

I agree it is very sad to see the difficulties between India and Pakistan. It is such a tremendous rivalry between nations that has such great potential to bring your peoples together with a shared passion for cricket, but sometimes it goes too far. I hope that the Asia Cup goes well and the players can do what is best for the sport.

We also want all these matches within Pakistan and people living here to enjoy this movement because these matches are very awesome.

So, you are saying India made pitches to give themselves favour? Here I am also supporting Australia. I hope they win over India.

Absolutely that's what I am saying. It's very common practice around the world and can be one of the nuances of the game that can make it so intrigueing.

In Australia we usually start our summer Test series in Brisbane, where the pitch is often bouncy and greenish. It's usually a nightmare for any touring team to deal with.

Should we call it cheating? If it is wrong, why ICC hasn't done anything against it? NO team should have a home advantage, especially when it comes to pitches, ICC should Look after the pitches.

Are you in Aus with Betfair set up to bet in play?

No, In-Play is still illegal here. I've used a VPN before but now am also using Kayo Sports to stream and that adds another 5-10 seconds delay over the old Foxtel satellite. Quite a liability when doing In-Play trade so I phone in during session breaks or over breaks.

Ah damn, I thought you might have found a way around the ridiculous phone in method.

I did years ago using ExpressVPN with GeeksToy, but stepped back from it. I'm not sure if BetFair tightened up its IP detection since then. Send me a DM on Discord if you like and I'll point you to the tools I used.

I’ve seen cricket a few times. Can’t say that I truly understand it. But I hope your Australian team wins for you.

😉👑👍 whoa, that is one beautiful scepter! (trophy) I wish them all much luck.

Till now I love cricket just that I always wondered whether it will be easy for me to play it

An Indian friend is really introducing me to cricket and it seem to be a very good game...
I guess that is what they play well over there...

I really don't have much idea about Cricket but I love the game.

It's going to be an awesome final no doubt and I wish the best team good luck.

Honestly speaking I don't have much interest in cricket. Whenever I see that Peoples are taking so much interest, i feel it weird.

Each to their own. I personally believe sport is an excellent way of connecting diverse cultures and peoples bringing them together with a common passion. I'll take sport over reality TV or most of the other garbage Hollywood produces in the name of entertainment.

Yes, people that like things you personally don't like are weird.

What a weird take.

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