Besides al the technical analysis from past periods, one thing most of the traders seem to forget is Bitcoin is not a regular financial asset for several reasons:
- It is quite new, historical data is not very long.
- It is disrupting a very old traditional market just as the interned did with traditional media.
- There is quite a small liquitidy compared to other markets as many traders are just holding.
- Besides hodlers, there are estimations that 3M BTC have been lost.
- The world's traditional economy is sinking.
- It is decentralized just as the internet, making it quite difficult to control and regulate by centralized governments. All other financial assets are traded in centralized markets.
- Jumping in is quite easy, no need for brokers as there is no centralized trading.
All these facts make bitcoin forecast quite difficult compared to traditional assets