The Bear Market of 2015
The majority of newcomers to Crypto usually arrive in the heart of a bull market. All the hype and euphoria tend to consistently attract new players to the market. I chose a rather different time to get involved in Crypto. It was during the bear market of 2015. I had watched Bitcoin from the sidelines since 2010 or so but was not convinced. However, I finally decided in 2015 to do some serious research. To be honest, it was actually Vinny Lingham that sparked my interest. I know Vinny from years ago, so his interest in Bitcoin in particular caught my attention. This was the beginning of a new chapter for me. Bear markets have a way of encouraging committed personality types to dig in and get busy. The more “take what I can get” personality doesn’t tend to last long here.
The Bear Market Of 2018
In the following bear market, I expanded my knowledge somewhat and began working on a trading strategy best suited for a bearish market. I also did a bit of blogging during these early days and became rather fixated with the idea of staking coins. Staking was only really beginning at this point, though there were a few early projects like Peercoin and BlackCoin. These coins are still around but are in essence pretty much dead. This is the period in which I also discovered my love for strategizing and building passive income constructs. Passive income has always been a fascination of mine and Crypto provided the perfect opportunity to work on it.
The Bear Market of 2022
This is an interesting one, as I began preparing for this market in 2021. Even though I was bullish in 2021 I began to shift to bearish strategies. In April of 2021, I made a hefty move to stablecoins. This is documented in a post that I published in May of 2021. As you may be aware, May saw the initial top of the market for Bitcoin. BTC topped out in May at $65K and later at $69K. Another article from May 2021 reveals how I predicted a further collapse. On the 23rd of April, I announced my shift into stablecoins, just a week or two before the initial top in 2021.
In February of 2022, I predicted a new altcoin season six days prior to the bottom for alts. Alts went on to rally well over 70% during the course of February and March. I was however cautious but noted that I had begun accumulation. On the 12th of April, I affirmed my analysis of significant price movements for Bitcoin in May. I had been mentioning this for some months already. Regular readers will be familiar with my term, “Bitcoin Box”, a sideways extended period, which I predicted many months ago.
The reaffirmation of my previous analysis which I reminded my readers of was quite clear and gave fair warning to those paying attention to the market.
That being said, an extension to the downside should also be factored into an extension of the previous range. My expectation has been and continues to be in May, as outlined a few months ago. My expectation is a strong break to the upside towards the end of May. However, that could also be to the downside depending on what transpires closer to the time.
Unfortunately, the market did begin to edge lower, which was evidence that we should brace ourselves for heavy moves down according to my analysis. It is important to note that this “reminder” was posted almost a month before the LUNA event.
I Do Find This Concerning
Crypto analysts have become very much like mainstream media personalities. What they actually say seems to be of little importance. In other words, a prediction is celebrated regardless of whether it is accurate or not. This is exactly why I “ignore the noise” and conduct my own research and analysis. the majority have been wrong more than they have been right. At this point, I pay no attention. My encouragement would be to use this time to become more knowledgeable. Develop your skills and formulate your own approach and interpretation of the market.
Everything in life seems to be a journey. Learn from your mistakes, celebrate your victories, and enjoy the journey. All the Best!
Disclaimer
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Another lucky early adopter... Well, I wish I pulled some profits out back in April 2021 as well, but didn't do that. How long do you think this bull market will be? What do you think the double top of 2021 says about the evolution of the market?
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When you look at the length of a bear market, you have to consider when the technicals together with the price action shift bullish, which is too early to say. A bottom however might be 2 months to 6 months away. The double top would not have taken place in my opinion if China had not banned mining. Hash rate precedes price... I think the market would have continued higher had it not occurred. The double top is only evidence of a push for a bullish continuation, correct?
You have to consider relativity. You have to measure appropriately and when you do that in relation to the China event you can understand the move lower. When you extrapolate the "distance covered" due to the China event you could argue that the market could have gone on to $140K.
It's like filling your gas tank to reach a destination. Halfway there you have to backtrack... will you still reach your destination?... no.
Had you not backtracked would you have reached your destination...
People love new and exciting ideas. Once again the halving will trigger the next bull run despite people wanting a new narrative. If you exclude the mechanics of the halving, you ultimately say that the monetary design of diminishing supply is inconsequential. In doing so you destroy the only argument that makes Bitcoin superior to other forms of money...
Makes no sense... the cycles remain, they just become less and less prevalent.
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