I try not to think too much about price predictions because I don’t want to set myself up for disappointment. Even if things go well, which I think and hope that they will, I’d rather be pleasantly surprised.
Once in a while it’s still fun to do some thought experiments though. These past few days I’ve seen a lot of predictions for $250,000 bitcoin by the end of the cycle.
$250,000 bitcoin. Let’s make a very conservative prediction for hive at $2.50. That would make me a whole lot richer than I am right now. I imagine exactly what I’ll do if that happens.
At first I thought I would only touch 10 to 15% of my portfolio and leave the rest as it is. These days I’m thinking slightly differently.
What would I cash out?
I’d likely keep my Hive savings just where they are. I like having a bigger upvote, influence on the network, and keeping money in the ecosystem. The fewer people sell, the lower the supply, and so any demand will raise the price too.
The first things I’ll sell in my portfolio will be any other altcoins that went up more than BTC. I barely hold anything other than BTC, Hive and ETH now, but I still have a bit of chainlink, Cardano, old EOS and Uniswap. If any of these do a 5-10x before BTC, they’ll be the first thing I cash out.
The end goal is to stack as much BTC, ETH, and HIVE as possible.
Before I was thinking of only taking out 10%. Now I’m considering 35-50%. It really depends on how overbought the market is.
If countries are buying bitcoin left and right, if it becomes legalize currency in major countries, or if there is a massive crash in the value of the dollar, I’ll probably stick with around 35%. If the next boom is about million dollar cryptopunks and yield farming from shady liquidity pools, I’ll take out 50%.
Keeping cash on the side
Most of what I plan on cashing out will be to buy back in. If I take out 35%, 20% will be to buy back in. If I take out 50%, 35% will be to buy back in. I’ll be pretty patient. I always try my best not to FOMO or FUD. Thinking longing term makes this easy.
Starting a company
The main purpose behind taking profits (aside from reinvesting) will be to make it easier to start a business. 10% of my crypto will go towards this. It may not be enough, but it'll make it a whole lot easier.
I’ve been talking about this for a year and the idea has evolved a lot. I won’t need a ton of capital, but at least don’t want to be pinching pennies everywhere. I think I can get up and running rather quickly once I put all the pieces in place.
Living the life
There isn’t much of luxury that I’m really after. At some point I’d like to buy a house, and maybe some nice music equipment. Beyond that I can’t think of anything.
Unless bitcoin 20x’s in the next year (not likely), a house in Tokyo isn’t happening right away, though once the business is up and running, maybe I can think about it.
I like good food, but it doesn’t need to be the fanciest. I want to travel, but even if I do, I’ll likely still budget because I don’t see the purpose in splurging.
So really the only thing I spend my money on if I were trying to make life easier is a new computer specifically for making stuff, and a few trips outside of the city. I’d probably visit Kyuushu and Shikoku, the southwestern part of Japan. I’d like to find some interesting communities there. It’s been a while since I’ve seen Kyoto.
Because of the pandemic, not ready to make plans to go overseas yet. But I’ve had my eye on Portugal Spain Germany Indonesia and Africa for a while now. Ideally I’d get to visit a bunch of Hivesters.
I only plan on using 5% of my crypto for life and luxury so hopefully the business will start moving before I plan to go overseas.
Other investments
I thought about re-investing some of my crypto earnings into stock and gold when bitcoin cools off. I’m not sure if it's time yet. I’ll have to see how the world looks after bitcoin has a 5X.
Hiring people
The best part about starting a business will be being able to hire people and paying people for their services. If I see any opportunities to expand the business quickly and sustainably, I'll put a little more of my crypto into it. I hope to find awesome people who were a little later in this game and give them work they love and pay them well enough. I already know a bunch (😝) and it would be cool to help them live a life that they love even more and live more comfortably.
In that case I will likely use Hive first and if possible, find people who can power up some of what I pay them because I want to keep it in the ecosystem and make this place stronger.
What are your plans if/when bitcoin hits $250,000?
🌎🌎🌎🌎🌎🌎🌎🌎🌎🌎🌎🌎🌎
My music:
My lazy vlogs:
my mini-novella series:
Confessions of the Damaged - Out Now!
🎬Self Help For Trolls
🎸I + Everything
📕 Confessions of the Damaged OUT NOW :-)
Come join Hive Cross Culture and Join our discord
Please consider delegating to @crossculture or following our trail 🙂
🌱🌱🌱🌱🌱🌱🌱🌱🌱🌱🌱🌱🌱🌱🌱🌱🌱🌱🌱🌱
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
Well, crypto has crazy volatility so it's good to have a plan just in case the 2013 and 2017 end of year bullruns repeat. I was new to crypto when the 2017 bullrun and following crash happened, so I didn't have the knowledge about market psychology and cycles, so I didn't take advantage of it. Now though, I'm much more wiser, and am planning to take profits as well, to eventually by back again with cheap prices. I'm powering down HIVE just in case something similar happens as in January 2018 when steem went vertical, so I can buy back cheaper.
It's always good to keep some on the side. For me now it's a little less than 10% but that's ok, I'm happy to make a 2x on 10% and flip that back later. I like what my voting power does :-)
Bitcoin on the other hand....I'm still feeling a little doubtful that 4 year cycles are going to continue being a thing. At some point the amount of bitcoin mined per year becomes irrelevant because the demand is too high, and I think we may already be there. It's still possible that things will resemble 2013 and 2017 but I'm open to the possibility that OCT NOV and DEC of 2017 will take all of now til this time next year and have less of a bear. I'm also open to the possibility of massive engineered FUD like we've never seen.
The lengthening cycle is my favorite theory right now.
Even with 250k it wouldn’t change my lifestyle or habits. Would keep my simple and minimalistic lifestyle. Would take some profits to reinvest in bear cycle.
Perfect. Yeah o can't figure out what I'd wanna buy. Basically I just wanna start projects that can bring some other people up and invest in ways that let me keep writing and making stuff full time.
TP some of my crypto (I’ve been TPing little by little) to UST and live off interest from terra.
Keep some BTC in cold wallet, keep some OHM. I guess that’s it.
Good luck to you!
What happened to your hive!?! You used to be big! 😭😭😭
I’ve been taking profits form various cryptos, need more stables at the moment. I was wrong not TP enough during the last bullrun in 2017, don’t want to make the same mistake again…
Lol I get it. I got my all my other alts ready to sell and buy back later 🙂
Firstly, I don't have even a cent of Bitcoin 😒 but I can imagine myself doing so much if I had some and it hits that price.
Your plans are all valid and making sure of your voting power to be influential on this network is great.
Let's hope for the best with Bitcoin and our Hive coins
Well if you are at Hive you have nothing to worry about. All ships rise with bitcoin. Although I don’t sell hive now, when I started I sold half of my earnings during all the big pumps and powered up the other half. It was a good move 😝
Wow that's cool, I still sell some of my Hive because of some of my needs.. So sad but I can't help it.
I'm sure I'll get to the time I won't have to sell much like I do now 😒
It's understandable. I wish everyone could find multiple sources of income
I like the way you are thinking! Maybe because I have very, very similar thoughts about crypto and some of the "IF scenarios"...
If BTC hits $250K, it doesn't mean that other altcoins will also hit some crazy numbers, but it would be nice to see that too :) (I have a conservative look about that, like you...) So, if that happens, I would probably buy an apartment for my family as we are renting for almost 10 years and it's just money thrown through the window...
Regarding percentages and even coins, I agree with your strategy and already doing something similar... Selling on peaks, and buying back the part of it when it goes back... BTC, ETH, HIVE are here to stay in my portfolio, and I will probably sell 30-50% of the rest of the tokens... Why that high percentage? Well, because of the possible buyback mostly...
I have picked this post on behalf of the @OurPick project and it will be highlighted in the next post!
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
I really thought the cycles were over but now it seems like it could go either way. We could have a blow off top. Or we could just keep going up much slower than that for a long long time. kind of like how we’ve been since the recent reversal.
We will see! Either way it’s a good time to be here
This is what I'll exactly do. The truth is, I like influencing the network too, so I'll most keep a lot of my stake and only establish a real-time business with the little I'll take out.
Although I don't like being too enthused about prices I try to keep my expectations minimal and only hope for the best. In reality hive I'd growing irrespective of the areas we haven't explored. As for BTC I'll consider buying some and more overtime. Because BTC hitting thst figure is a possibility anytime soon.
Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
Hoping you make it to whale one day. You'd make a fantastic whale.
Your content has been voted as a part of Encouragement program. Keep up the good work!
Use Ecency daily to boost your growth on platform!
Support Ecency
Vote for Proposal
Delegate HP and earn more
It seems being a very measured and cautious cash out plan, bro! 🙂 I'm gonna look for the publications where you've talked about your company project (I'd imagine it'd be linked with art or supporting artists?).
I've been thinking for years, and still think, that we're on the verge of the second step in the BTC and crypto world implantation: the black market one. I see more States following China, enforcing their totalitarian fiat CBDCs, and crypto paper hands fleeing the space. BUT it'll be a huge opportunity for us to stick at cryptos as economic and political disruption tools, going back to its p2p and radically non custodial roots 😁. With all centralized exchanges being shut down worldwide - except maybe here in El Salvador, but then we'll probably be invaded by imperial armies - cryptos will surge in value as the layer 1 of the post-dictatorial era.
Let's set up and running our full nodes, even for Hive!
That's a really interesting prediction. If it happens I think this bull market will get cut into two with a big bear market in the middle, like 2018 happening between summer 2017 and winter 2017. I think bitcoin may already be too strong to really be banned at this point.
I think most countries are just going to regulate it heavily and prevent it from being used as a currency for as long as they can, until they figure out how to compete with their CBDC's, which will fail until they realize incentives work better than punishment
More of the same in countries like the US and Japan. Legal as an investment asset. I may have to pay a lot of taxes if I'm paid in bitcoin. I'm still thinking about doing that though.
I haven't written much about the company. It's still a little abstract. I have big plans for it and a first step as just registering my freelance work as a company but the in between step is still fuzzy so I'll hold off on saying too much! Thanks man!
I totally agree that incentives work better than punishment. The problem here is that CBDC's aren't, for those powerful States, an option: it'll be mandatory. If they preserve even a tiny legal window for people to choose between 1) a State run fiat currency with an electronic barnish, that'll come with a thorough and AI driven register of each one of our transactions (where did we buy something, for how much, when, with whom, for which purpose) AND 2) a decentralized currency maintained by a Community of freedom loving devs, which one will citizens embrace?
It's probable that the countries following El Salvador's example will be small ones only (I mean economy wise), except for a couple of "maverick States". I could see Russia adopt BTC, for example.
I think in the end they’ll have officially recognized wallets and want people to use those wallets. It won’t matter if they use the btc or the local currency. The wallets will make it easy for them to watch, and they’ll start monitoring anything off the wallet much more carefully and aggressively.
El Salvador is moving incredibly fast compared to g8 countries. It takes them 5-10 years to make decisions or develop anything so I think a US CBDC is very far away from adoption, maybe we’ll see an beta version in two years but bitcoin will be tearing it up that whole time. The country is run by dinosaurs. The banks have the power but they have to work with the sluggish and ignorant middlemen in government.