Good day Hiveians!
Join me in analyzing the crypto markets!
19 days since the last BTC post, how time flies!
Since then not too much has changed, except that we seem to be continuing the bear market rally as noted previously:
What if we actually get a (mini) rally? As pointed out previously, the strange thing about the previous months is that we haven't had a bear rally. Normally BTC headed a lot higher (e.g. 60%) only to come crashing down again. But so far we "only" had 30% rallies.
We are now a little bit above a 30% rally which I think is an important threshold. So far the normal pathway has been to fall back to lower levels and end the rally "prematurely". But as highlighted in this chart which I posted last time I think we are in for a higher rally this time. But don't mistake this for the beginning of the next bull cycle. We are still in a bear market - but in the transitional phase which has mostly sideways price movement.
I see price rising to about 35k before getting everyone excited in thinking that this is it - the next big impulse wave. But generally Bitcoin has traded a bit above the resistance trend line from previous highs to get the volume up for the whales to sell and trigger the bull trap. As noted in a previous post, I have argued for the bear market to last until about the end of 2022. Here is the chart again if you missed it:
The RSI seems to be a good indicator for marking the bear market territory. Here is the updated chart:
One of the most successful predictions for Bitcoin was the insight to draw the orange trend lines in the chart which perfectly (!) predicted the bottom for the bear market. You can see a second finer trend line which will probably become relevant in the months to come. In fact you can see that it forms the basis for the prediction of the lows for the end of this year in the first chart. Let's update the first chart while we are at it:
So far we are on track to the path outlined in the chart. I think the market would peak sometime at the end of September and then sell off to about 17k which is the "finer trend line" mentioned above. At that point the bear market will have most likely ended and actually initiate the next bull market probably lasting for 2- 2.5 years.
So if we actually trigger this mini run, be prepared to sell some coins as it would be prudent to do so.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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I look at 30k as a good point to be a ceiling, then I see BTC falling back towards 15-17k as you mention.
I don't know if the bear market is just for this year, following everything macro in the world, energy crisis, food and inflation still at the top, I consider that we will be here in 2023 as well and then if subsequently go out a little more afloat.
Although well, no one has the definitive answer, the truth is that both in rises or falls, you can get winning moves.
Greetings, very good analysis.
thank you and it's good to see you have a similar outlook!