Crypto Analysis | Hive About to Pump Again?

Good day Hiveians!

Join me in analyzing the crypto markets!

 

It's been 25 days since the last pump

That pump was quite spectacular bringing Hive from around 38 cents to over 70 cents in just over a day. But it wasn't anything unusual as far as Hive's historic price action is concerned. Hive pumps and dumps all the time. Although, it actually doesn't! If you look at the chart you will see that this only happens when Hive is in the "active" phase.

The last time was in basically all of 2021 as you can see in this red box (note the volume):

After that in the macro dump phase volume flatlined. I made some posts at that time which got me worried a bit that people lost interest in Hive since the volume was so low. But 25 days ago we got the confirmation that Hive is set up for more action again. But as you can see even this spectacular pump's volume is relatively low compared to the "active" phase of 2021.

So this got me thinking: If we are again entering an active phase (this is an assumption of course), then could we expect more pumps? The answer is of course yes, as activity=pumps; but I guess what I am getting at is how frequent were those pumps? So let's just look at the active phase of 2021 in terms of volume:

We can see that the pumps (and dumps) occurred quite frequently. But how frequent? We can measure the time of days between all of these pumps above the threshold in the chart (horizontal blue line):

12+24+5+12+11+7+20+12+4+16+16+37+33+29+12+10=260

260/16=16.25

This means that on average we had a pump every 16.25 days in 2021 with the longest interval being 37 days. As you can see they happened not very regularly, so we have to keep that in mind when extrapolating this result on this next potential active phase of 2022/2023. But we could argue that if(!) the activity of these phases is similar to one another that we could expect pumps about every 16 days on average.

This would make us a bit overdue for the next pump.

What I see in the charts could speak for another incoming pump. Let's have a look:

Price is now finding the bottom again after this brief upward movement. It has two good supports from the trend line coming from the previous highs as well as the thicker support line on the macro scale.

If we see this upward trend I think there is a good probability of going higher. The chances of staying in the converging macro channel is also quite high which is why I am favoring the upward price scenario.

This potential pump would to to about the 80 cents range. After that the dump would probably take us either back all the way down to 50 cents or we could stay at around 60 cents.

 

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As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!

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