Gold Analysis | Historical Perspective and Outlook!

in LeoFinance2 years ago (edited)

Good day Hiveians!

Join me in analyzing the crypto markets!

 

What's up with Gold?

I usually look at cryptos, but gold has always been an interesting and valuable asset. As such, what does the historical chart look like and where could prices go in the (near) future?

This chart covers many decades and starts with the late 60s. The horizontal lines are at the historical ATHs. We can see that prices went crazy in that time frame. From ~$30 to more than $2000! But there were some quite harsh corrections as well. With the first one shown here going from $190 to about $99 which is about a 50% correction; or the second one from $718 to $253 which is more than 60%; and finally from $1800 to about $1000 which was about 45%. Ultimately this didn't matter much however. If you kept hodling gold it would have been a great investment!

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We can also spot a pattern: Every time when price reached the previous ATH, it went very fast to a new ATH. The first movement was a ~300% increase, and the second one from ~$750 to ~$1800 about a 150% increase. So big increases, but compared to crypto actually not that impressive.

The black arrows outline the U shape movement from the former ATH to the next ATH. The periods for these seem to be of unequal length and I cannot spot a pattern here. However, having identified the two previous times when prices went upward after having reached the former ATH, we can make the following prediction: prices will reach higher and reach a new ATH over just several years. But how high could it go?

Marking the low points of each correction gives us the following chart:

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When we look at the increases from the lows to the highs we see for all three rallies a 500%-700% increase. This is quite specific and I think we could use this number for a rough prediction of the next ATH.

When we do this we get an interesting picture:

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From the low of the correction, a ~600% price increase would give us about ~$7500. We also have a trend line that will probably impact price at those levels. But it isn't a strong predictor. The former two ATHs give us another trend line that has turned into a resistance. But we can expect it to be broken fairly soon as the basic trend for Gold is pointing upwards.

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In this last chart you can see a box which I think could be the target area reaching from about $4k-$7.5k. I have also inserted a time window for which I think it would be likely to see the peak. This is for 2024-2028.

Of course the past never repeats in the same way; but it seems very possible and reasonable to assume that Gold will continue to become more valuable in a world where fiat currencies are being devalued on a daily basis.

 


As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!

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Finding a pot of gold at the end of a rainbow sounds like a plan! A fantasy I know but nonetheless a good one!

I'm banking on you being right. That is what I figure. :)