Thoughts On The Market | Where are we going?

in #markets2 years ago

Some facts

  • inflation is damn high
  • fed increases interest
  • war in Ukraine
  • energy crisis in Europe
  • reminder, sock market and crypto had an amazing 2021 year
  • Q1 2022, markets are down all over the place
  • crypto is corelated with stonks in Q1

Now what?

As for the stonks, previous history indicate two weeks recovery period after the interest rate increase ... better times for stonks in June? Long term it depends on the global events, no.1 the war in Ukraine. A lot of people are mentioning the word stagnation instead of recession. Personally not sure what to think about stonks, 2022 seems to positioned to go down.

Now for crypto. This is something we are all following on a daily basis, and after 5 years maybe there is something that we can feel and tell on subconscious level without even getting in the hard data :)

The bad news is that everything seems to be indicating a down trend, if Q1 was not enough :) This being crypto we all know it can go down more. It doesn't mean a bad thing if you have some stables around.
I personally think we cant go down as before, (80% correction for BTC), because institution are now in play. This said 50% correction for BTC will be around 34k, and 70% around 20k. Meaning small chances to drop bellow 30k in 2022, with some ultimate bottom at 20k, except a black swan event (examp. nuclear third world war).

The good news is we are yet to see massive institutional adoption for BTC, especially the spot ETF in the US for BTC. There are a lot of indications that this is possible to happen in the following months, and if this happens it can make possible for trillions to flow in BTC. Another fact is that now we have more then 170B in stablecoins, unlike the few billions back in 2017.

2022 seems a mixed bag for crypto, the general market trends indicates downtrend, while the possible institutional and general adoption might cause uptrend. The amount of capital in stablecoins also indicates better support then the previous bear.

I personally hold around 30% of my portfolio in stablecoins and I'm dollar cost averaging in and out of the market on a monthly basis. Last years I was mostly selling (mostly alts, not BTC), while starting from January this year I'm buying small chunks each month, BTC and alts, maintaining the stablecoins share.

This is just some short thoughts I wanted to consolidate on the market. Not a financial advice :)

What are your thoughts on the market and do you have any strategy going forward?

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Back in May of 2021 I took some gains, but I didn't move any of them into stable coins, so now I am hurting because I can't take advantage of buying back in. I keep waiting for another small pump so I can get some money in stables, but it just doesn't seem to be happening. At this point I am kind of stuck unable to make any moves without taking a loss. Just waiting to see what happens.

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

Sucks when you cant take an opportunity. But long term consistency is paying off. Dont get discouraged

Thanks, I appreciate that! Yeah, I should have played it differently back then. Hindsight really is 20/20!

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

I expect that the market will not move much as a whole, but different coins will have different drivers:

  • BTC will depend on finding another crazy guy like Saylor or Bukele.
  • ETH will depend on The Merge succeeding.
  • XMR will depend on whether regulation makes Monero more attractive or harder to use. I already predicted this in March, and since then Monero went up during news about financial censorship, and then back down again.

Tbh I don't really understand this new environment where crypto moves in sync with stocks.

Yes, different coins will have different performance, but still there is some general direction for the market. ETH is especialy interesting with the merge

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Perspective!

I'm holding Polycub and some Leo tokens. Some HBD and any other coins that are cheap. There is really any strategy. I just buy when the price is lower. And hope it gets bullish !

Long term coins there :)

I'm following a defensive strategy these days. I make new investments in the form of stable coins. I converted some of the altcoins that I kept on DEFI applications to Bitcoin. I'm not selling my Hives and Leos, nor am I buying new ones.

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

A lot of people seems to be defensive. But do you have some strategy, like I'll keep this capital/stables if crypto goes down X%? Any upfront preparation?

I will HODL no matter how harst a possible bear market would be. I intend to buy Hive if the price falls around 50 cents.

My strategy is very simple because what I am doing now is to buy hbd and transfer it to savings and the monthly income should be use to buy my number one altcoin which is bitcoin

Posted Using LeoFinance Beta

Great post @dalz.shorts.

My thoughts:

  • Have at least a 6 months emergency fund, recession is looking more likely.
  • Pay off debt…especially auto debt...don't need the car repossessed if you lose your job...you may have to sell financial assets to do that (cash account only).
  • As soon as the FED stops raising rates, that's the time to buy financial assets…better discount.