Heuristics, scarcity and NFT art.

in #palnet4 years ago (edited)

When information is low we use shortcuts called Heuristics to make decisions. Quality is largely subjective in the art world; so when we try to discern the value of a piece of art, we look past the work itself and consider other factors, like the notoriety/popularity of the artist, how prolific they've been and what their other pieces have sold for.

There's one other attribute that doesn't come up often so isn't immediately relevant, at least not yet. Age.

If two similar pieces are for sale, and one of them is 100 years older than the other; that's going to be the more valuable one.
Nobody's making new 100 year old art.

I don't know if this piece is good; I just know that I like it. What's not subjective, is that I bought it from @alejandra.her in 2020.

Let's assume a tenfold increase in NFT art being minted and sold in 2021 compared to 2020. Then another tenfold increase from 2021 and 2022.
That means 27 months from now 99% of the world's NFT art will have been listed after 2020, and anything sold in 2020 will be in the oldest 1%.

I think tenfold is a conservative estimate, across all of the platforms we have and the ones that haven't launched yet.
If it goes 50x in 2021, and again in 2022, we're looking at 2% of 2% = 0.04%

In the wildly subjective world of art, I expect that will be a very safe sign of value in the minds of collectors, and thanks to blockchain tech it can't be faked.


I know 2020 seems inescapable now; but in 3 months time it will be gone forever, and no more 2020 art will ever be minted again.


If you've been thinking about posting some work on nftshowroom.com (or photography on lensy.io), just do it.

Get whitelisted and get it up there. When people buy it, don't cash out the SWAP.HIVE; use it to buy somebody else's art. Buy two editions. One to keep long term, and another to sell at the end of 2022.

A cute little wren, courtesy of @kiokizz. Love the different textures in this one.

You have a rare talent. For the next 3 months, you can do what nobody will be able to do after Jan 1st.
You can make 2020 NFTs.

My nftshowroom.com collection - here
My lensy.io collection - here

If you'd like my subs to see your work, feel free to send me an example ;)

Sort:  

I've never really thought of it in the "aging" light. Good point.

I certainly want to buy some NFTs when I can. Also possibly create some, if I can manage to create anything decent enough. It's a very intriguing concept and I've thought it was really cool!

It doesn't feel like 'history' while you're living it.

I really love that these things exist XD

I don't do anything for it though because I don't make the right kind of art which translates from I don't feel right tokenising/selling what I'm doing at the moment

It's not for everyone.
I wonder how predictions would tie in.
I have a pet theory that Keanu Reeves is being positioned for a run at politics at some point, possibly even for the presidency.
Imagine a scene of Keanu taking the oath of office, minted today. Ten years from now it happens and he takes the top job, that's going to be one valuable token.

Buenas noches amigo @mattclarke ddseo que se encuentre bien, tiempo sin saber de usted que le a pasado que no a vuelto a publicar. Saludos desde venezuela

Congratulations @mattclarke! You have completed the following achievement on the Hive blockchain and have been rewarded with new badge(s) :

You got more than 13500 replies. Your next target is to reach 14000 replies.

You can view your badges on your board and compare yourself to others in the Ranking
If you no longer want to receive notifications, reply to this comment with the word STOP

Do not miss the last post from @hivebuzz:

Feedback from the November 1st Hive Power Up Day