The Shy Voter Phenomenon

in #politics3 years ago

Why have election polls been getting it wrong in recent years? They used to be pretty reliable, but then we also used to have a civilised democratic society where people didn’t get persecuted for their political views. I have to admit that if a random stranger called my house phone and asked me who I was going to vote for in the next election, I’d probably tell them to "Go jump" but I understand why many people would just find it easier to lie about their intentions and play it safe. After all, if the caller has your phone number then they probably also have your address…..


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In 2016 the polls were wrong about Trump. They were wrong about Brexit and in Australia in 2019 they were wrong about our Federal Election here too, so there has been a bit of a pattern emerging. One explanation that has been getting a bit more credibility of late is the Shy Voter Phenomenon and yet it still is only really used to explain why polls were wrong in hindsight. The idea that future elections might be effected by the Shy Voter Phenomenon has not really got much traction so the mainstream media has continued to trust the polls blindly.


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In the USA this week we have a massive presidential election that the whole world has been talking about. Everyone has an opinion and that’s fine, I’d even go so far as to say it’s healthy! But some of the other things we have been seeing in the lead-up are really NOT that healthy. There has been civil unrest with thugs burning down things, destroying property and threatening or attacking people who have different political views….do people really think that in this environment people will be forthcoming about their voting intentions and we won’t see a Shy Voter Phenomenon this time around?


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If we apply a little bit of critical thought here and look at the state of things it’s pretty obvious to me that not only are we going to see a big Shy Voter Phenomenon but we possibly might see the biggest instance of it yet. I’m not an American so I don’t have a vote and I generally don’t care who is President over there as long as they don’t start any new wars, but as an investor in a number of different things the results of this election is likely to have some kind of impact on me financially. So I’ve been looking to hedge some of my investments against this election for months….but am I now seeing a new investment opportunity staring me in the face?


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I’m always on the lookout for any kind of market where the prices are wrong if I can also confidently identify the reasons why the markets are wrong. Here I can see the polls for the outcome of the US election getting it wrong and the betting markets for that election are all being based off those polls. It looks like a pretty obvious one to me. I’m not saying that Trump will win, but he’s paying 2.90 on Betfair which has got to be cracking value and earlier today I got a good chunk of cash on a +100.5 handicap in the Electoral College vote at 1.92 which looks to me like an outright steal. I’m expecting a rally in Precious Metals if Biden wins so this little side bet on the Electoral College is going to act as a bit of a hedge for me against my current holdings because if we get a close and contested election the markets might melt down a bit for lack of agreement on the next stimulus.

Whoever you support I wish you a sound mind in the days ahead and hopefully whoever loses will respect the outcome alongside their supporters. I’m not terribly optimistic about that last part but I’m hopeful.


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I agree entirely, part of the reason I snapped up 100 TRUMPWINS on Hive-engine.com
Seems a lock at this point.

How do you calculate the odds on those things? It looks like a totaliser type model but it's not as simple as dividing the circulating supplies.

At least with a betting exchange or a bookie I know what I'm going to get :)

All 3 tokens covering 3 potential outcomes, TRUMPWINS, BIDENWINS and NOBODYWINS are for sale by the dev, @nealmcspadden, at 1 SWAP.HIVE each until the election (today?), then the sell walls go down, and the price floats, with holders buying and selling the now FINITE supply.
All of the SWAP.HIVE paid in will be divided evenly among those holding the winning token on inauguration.
Most recent update was 18 hours ago.

Thanks for the tip. This looks like an interesting little experiment.....

THIS is why Totalisers suck arse. Big bets after the jump (polls opening) skewing the odds - in this case quite massively.

I've been saying this for years. You don't have to look too far to see it happening in all aspects of life. Take Fakebook and twatter, if your views fall outside the lefts views then you get shot down and called a racist, a bigot, a far right extremist... I always try and approach things from a logical point of view and leave "feewings" out of it, so I've just stopped offering my opinions on Fakebook and Twatter.

I was right about Brexit, I was right about Trump in '16, and I'm calling it again. The Shy Voter Phenomenon will strike again and leave the left scratching their heads and calling names.

I've had a similar experience so now if I'm posting on those platforms I try to keep it light and wrap it in humour to get a message through. Many people can process a meme, but if you use too many words and need them to think a bit it is too much effort for them. If you look too partisan or land on a trigger then they will attack.

That's one of the reasons I like HIVE - people here are more open to ideas and will actually read stuff, and think for themselves!

Me in 2016: - If you spend the next few years telling people why they voted Trump instead of asking them; you're going to get more Trump.

Took this bet as the odds, as you describe, were favorable. I knew the risks of a contested election. But honestly, I opened a bottle of wine and lit a cigar in the afternoon of the day being 100% confident in success. My bookie says the result will be declared based on "reputable sources" and not any judicial action. I know I lost, but out of all my losses, this one leaves a real sour taste in my mouth. I took the same bet in 2016 at 4-1 so I can't complain, but I hate the feeling of being right and still losing. I think the international betting market doesn't fully understand how the US election works or the situation with the inaccurate polling causing the discrepancies in the odds in both Trump elections.

Ouch. You took the outright win and not the +100.5? I traded out the outright win when I saw what was happening and the market started to flip but now I've even got the +100.5 in doubt. I've been hedging it by Laying Red in North Carolina which is possibly the last state that Red wins that could cover the spread if the current trend is unchanged.

My bookie says the result will be declared based on "reputable sources" and not any judicial action.

What does that even mean?? It sounds dodgy as all hell. It's probably in line with the dodginess we're seeing this election, but still...if they shaft you on a clause like that then it should be curtains for their PR. Good luck man, it's not a done deal yet and if they uncover widespread voter fraud it could all flip back again very quickly so keep a cigar and fresh quart handy just in case ;)

I think the international betting market doesn't fully understand how the US election works or the situation with the inaccurate polling causing the discrepancies in the odds in both Trump elections.

Totally agree. Sometimes having a bit of common sense and the ability to think for yourself can earn you a nice windfall in markets like these.

I'm not really a punter. I've only placed 2 serious bets in my life both on Trump because the odds were so good. So I don't know the correct strategies to employ. My bookie is one of those BTC sites that I use to play free online poker only as playing online poker with real money is illegal for Australians.

Off-topic: I scored a gold coin from a garage sale. I took it to my local gold place and they said they would pay $300 for the weight. It's dated 1871. It has Latin writing. On one side it says Britannium Regina Fid Del and has a British coat of arms. On the other side is a face of a woman and the words Victoria Dei Gratia 1871. Does this coin have any collector value or is it just gold?

You should definitely take good quality photos of it, weigh it and make a post on here with the tag #silvergoldstackers include the photos ask the questions. Very, VERY knowledgeable people on here will help you. They'll tell you what is it, the purity and it's value. It sounds like a "sovereign" - possibly something like THIS

Don't trust some local gold place to give you a fair price. Most would low-ball you for certain - especially if they think you don't know what you've got.

Thanks mate will do. That's exactly the coin.

Thats a good theory. i will have to give it a thought.

My theories are something like, the left vs the right... or the thing feelers vs the thinkers was designed to keep everything sorta balanced, so that whichever way the elites wanted the election to go, it was pretty much "normal".

But today, the left is sooooo left, that Pres Chump, a business democrat, is considered far right republican.

When the left is that far left, they should lose almost every election that is larger than their home city.
Still, we will see an almost even vote between the left and the right.
Which means a lot of vote manipulation.
However, we are going to see something even worse. Some states are not going to get a vote. Something will happen where people call bullshit, they find such vote rigging, that something has to be done, and they won't get a new vote fast enough to send delegates to vote for the pres.

... and thus, there will be many unhappy leftists.

The Leftists will be happy so long as Biden wins and there's still a good chance he will.

I am guessing that your insight will be rewarded. I understand the gaslighting from the journalist and pollsters ... the only thing that makes me nervous is the betting odds. I have come to expect that markets are less easily fooled than journalists and pollsters.

Normally, yes, I would agree with you. I'd much prefer to listen to the markets than any talking head as markets usually give signals about the truth of things if you know what to look for, while talking heads these days are all about narrative management.

But markets aren't always right as money does not always understand the political leanings of average Joe.

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