In the past there have always been replacement jobs for lost jobs or obsolete skills. This next job flush, may take awhile before the obsolete skill sets and jobs are replaceable. The wagon builders were able to move and become coach builders for the train companies that displaced their old job, then when that job skill set was no longer needed, they moved into the automobile or other factory job environments. It may take awhile before new job industries are opened for people to look at and move into. The Conestoga Wagon makers, could clearly see the end of their skill sets with today's tech level it is hard for the workers let alone the owners of doomed old tech to see tomorrow and what is on the horizon.
A UBI is a very scary road to travel for society. I can see where it may be needed, but I can also see where it is the total and complete destruction of society. It sounds nice, but there is and always will be someone handing the "dole" out, and history shows us that most governments, when it comes to free things, like to take keep and maintain total control. China and its Social Credit system should be a warning for those looking at UBI, and they need to, as far as possible, have as few attached rules and regulations on it as possible.
The idea that this has happened before is something I hear a lot when talking about UBI. My personal opinion is that just because things have unfolded a certain way in the past doesn't mean that will be the case in the future. I also happen to think that this is one of those times. Reason being that once we cross a certain threshold, there will be certain types of work that will simply no longer be viable for humans. It won't ever come back and the pool of work for humans will continue to get smaller and smaller at an exponentially faster rate.
How?
What's the correlation between these two?
If the Social Credit system in China is working the way people have been showing on youtube, (I know not the best source), then if your social credit score is below a certain threshold then you can not travel, or purchase certain things, your consumer choices become restricted.
In a UBI system if it is run by a government organization, and there is nothing to prevent the government, what would stop them from saying you can no longer live where you live if you want to continue receiving your UBI? We are moving you into this city where there is public transport, and are taking your land and car to sell them to people not on a UBI?
It may not be the same thing as what happened in America in WW2, and people can say that it will never happen, but I believe it will. I do not think Americans have learned much from history and are thus willing to look past governmental oversteps such as the Japanese Internment Camps. Further back in American History there is the forced relocation of Native Americans. Americans learned nothing from those events either, as you can see it was repeated in WW2 with a forced relocation of a different group of people.
There is one thing Americans are good at, and that is turning a blind and accepting eye to the wrongs done by our government. If a government is involved in UBI, then that system is a potential new serf/slave system to those on it.
Just because something has happened in the past is no guarantee that it will recur in the future, if steps are taken to ensure that the possibility of a recurrence is limited.
The Social Credit System creates class or tiers of people. UBI will do the same thing. Both are controlled by Governments. Those were just a few of my thoughts on it and how I see it.
I do think with the change in the work force that this next one is going to be major and a stop gap measure will need to be in place. I think that there will always be replacement jobs for those that are lost.
Every change from one job skill set to the next needed job skill set has been wrought with doom and gloom, from farms, to factories, to internet, to the next revolutionary advance of mankind. We survived the industrial age, and we are surviving the communication age. Society, being made up of individuals, is capable of adapting. Governments are a little bit less adept at adapting than the people and society.
I would like to see a UBI system in place that works, but I think it will be highly unlikely in the near future.
Well I agree that the whole social credits system is fucked and terrible. I think when I read what you wrote though it reads as "Authoritarian Government" When you're talking about a social credits system and forcing people to do this or that.
My response to that would be, if we end up with an authoritarian government, which I agree is not off the table in these times, that that would spell the end of our society as we know it, I don't really feel like that would be a result of UBI.