PostsCommentsPayoutsthauerbyi (-4)(1)in #waivio • 18 hours agoThe Data Void That Ate NovemberThe Data Void That Ate November Markets don't fear what they can see. They fear what they cannot. The longest government shutdown in US history has ended, leaving behind…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #waivio • 2 days agoThe Erosion of Accountability: How Tech Giants Learned to Rewrite the Rules During a BoomThe Erosion of Accountability: How Tech Giants Learned to Rewrite the Rules During a Boom November 15, 2025 The numbers sound fine on the surface. Earnings growth is running…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #waivio • 3 days agoWhen Empires Hedge: What Luxembourg Teaches Us About the Dollar's Slow SurrenderWhen Empires Hedge: What Luxembourg Teaches Us About the Dollar's Slow Surrender Let me start with a historical oddity. In 1968, two events happened within months of each other…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #waivio • 4 days agoWhen Markets Trade on Hope, History Whispers a WarningWhen Markets Trade on Hope, History Whispers a Warning There's a particular moment in a bear market when the pain subsides just enough for people to start making plans again.…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #waivio • 5 days agoWhen Markets Price Reality: The November ReckoningWhen Markets Price Reality: The November Reckoning We are watching something instructive unfold. Not dramatic, not headline-grabbing—but instructive. The government shutdown…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #waivio • 6 days agoBuffett's Goodbye & the Ghost of Financial Systems PastBuffett's Goodbye & the Ghost of Financial Systems Past What does the wealthiest man in one country do when he stops believing in its markets? He counts his cash. Warren…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #waivio • 7 days agoThe Shutdown Was the Distraction. The Valuation Crack Is the Story.The Shutdown Was the Distraction. The Valuation Crack Is the Story. Everyone keeps talking about the government shutdown like it matters. A 40-day funding freeze. Economic data…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #waivio • 8 days agoThe Government Shutdown Doesn't Matter, Except When It DoesThe Government Shutdown Doesn't Matter, Except When It Does Listen, I'm going to be honest about something that everyone's pretending not to notice: We've built the entire…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #waivio • 9 days agoThe Paradox of American Liquidity: Why Bitcoin Is Drowning While the Fed DrownsThe Paradox of American Liquidity: Why Bitcoin Is Drowning While the Fed Drowns You have to go back to 2008 to find the last time the federal government shut down for this…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #waivio • 10 days agoPrediction Market Signal—The Tariff Case as a Study in Information FragmentationMEMO TO INVESTMENT COMMITTEE RE: Prediction Market Signal—The Tariff Case as a Study in Information Fragmentation FROM: Research & Strategy DATE: November 7, 2025…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #waivio • 11 days agoThe Robinhood Rally Is Real, But Read The Fine PrintThe Robinhood Rally Is Real, But Read The Fine Print You want to know what happened on Wednesday? The ADP payroll number came in at 42,000 jobs added—topping estimates by…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #waivio • 12 days agoWhat If They're Just Done?What If They're Just Done? Tuesday morning, Palantir crushed earnings. 77% U.S. business growth. The stock got hammered 8% anyway. Not even a pop-and-fade kind of thing. Just…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #waivio • 13 days agoMemo to Self: A Market Watching Itself Watch ItselfMemo to Self: A Market Watching Itself Watch Itself FROM: The Part of You That Still Reads Quarterly Reports TO: The Part That Just Refreshes Bloomberg DATE:…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #waivio • 14 days agoThe Global Easing Cycle is Fracturing—And That's the Real StoryThe Global Easing Cycle is Fracturing—And That's the Real Story The grand synchronization of central bank cuts that defined 2024 and early 2025 is coming to an end. Not with…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #waivio • 15 days agoThe Institutionalization Trap: How Crypto Became What It Swore to DestroyThe Institutionalization Trap: How Crypto Became What It Swore to Destroy We're watching the recursive moment. The moment when a system built to disintermediate finance becomes…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #waivio • 16 days agoThe Tariff Circus Comes to November: How Markets Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the VolatilityThe Tariff Circus Comes to November: How Markets Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Volatility November 1, 2025. The 100% tariff is live. China didn't collapse. America…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #waivio • 17 days agoThe Cloud Arms Race: How Amazon Just Proved the Capex Trap Is RealThe Cloud Arms Race: How Amazon Just Proved the Capex Trap Is Real Thursday evening was supposed to be a vindication for Amazon. The company beat earnings expectations with…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #waivio • 18 days agoThe Chips Don't Fall Where You Think They DoThe Chips Don't Fall Where You Think They Do Thursday, October 30, 2025 — 8:47 AM Here's what just happened, and I'm still spinning. Trump lands in South Korea. Media…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #waivio • 19 days agoThe Great De-Escalation Pantomime: Welcome to the Trade War's IntermissionThe Great De-Escalation Pantomime: Welcome to the Trade War's Intermission Watch carefully what's happening in South Korea this week. Not because anything is actually being…thauerbyi (-4)(1)in #waivio • 20 days agoThe Paradox of October 29: When Rate Cuts Feel Like AdmissionsThe Paradox of October 29: When Rate Cuts Feel Like Admissions In 1919, after nearly a century of gold-standard discipline, the Federal Reserve faced a choice. Markets were…
