Lately I have heard some crazy talk of bitcoin going to $250,000 or even 1 million dollars. But is this really even possible? I dug in and here is what I found.
My Own Views
My own predictions see bitcoin at $5,000 - $7,500 rather steady by years end.
By 2020 I do expect to see somewhere around $30,000 - $50,000
After that point I honest don't have a clue. But now lets break down what needs to happen in these cases.
Quick History
Only 21 Million bitcoins will ever be mined
There will always be attrition such as lost wallets and whatever else that might reduce this supply.
Bitcoin at $50,000 per coin
So what needs to happen for bitcoin to hit $50,000 in 2020 ?
Total supply will be about 17.7 Million just about when the next halving will start from 12.5 coins per block down to 6.25 thus reducing the new injected supply by half. In theory this alone would jack the price up by 50% If bitcoin would be $10,000 at the time then its price should just to $15,000 (again in theory) due the the reduced amount being added in. This single factor should already raise the price.
We would need a market cap of the coin at the time to be 900 Billion dollars. As of today we are at 75 billion market cap for bitcoin. Another 825 billion will need to be added in 2-3 years so where does that come from?
Mostly gold markets which currently has 8.2 trillion dollars in it but also stock markets which as 66.8 trillion dollars. For bitcoin to hit $50,000 per coin we are looking at just 0.9 trillion of the possible 75 + trillion currently invested or about 2%-3% it honestly starts to look very possible once you put that into specs.
What Does $250,000 Per Bitcoin look like
Same cases above however you are looking at 4.5 trillion or just under 10% of all investment money going into bitcoin. Still possible but I see it being a bit far fetched.
That Brings Us To 1 Million per bitcoin
Pretty much what has to happen here is about half of the worlds money has to be invested into bitcoin. Total adoption pretty much is what will have to happen. Possible? Yes, going to happen I don't see it.
Please remember none of this is investment advice. Please seek professional help and be responsible with your own finances before you consider investing.
For me this was just a fun project to see what it would take to hit these types of numbers. I hope you enjoyed it as well.
@bitcoinflood I like when things such as your posting bring us around to putting on our thinking caps as to what will happen with Bitcoin and the Crypto Currency arena. I do as others may mention when replying to your post think that we are very much in the infancy of what is going to happen with ALL Cryptos. Thinking about Future Pricing just wants me to keep adding on a consistent basis using a Dollar Cost Averaging strategy. Thank You for taking the time so that we all can Ponder the Possibilities.................STEEM On !
It has huge room for growth still, it shocks me when people come to me and say they feel like they missed out. I pretty much tell them your going to be saying this same thing to yourself a few years from now again so take action.
Yes take action. Even if all you do is OPEN a Coinbase account and just buy your first $100 of Crypto. Use this Link if you like and get an Extra $10 worth of Crypto when you make your FIRST purchase of $100 or more.......... https://www.coinbase.com/join/559b28d266623700a80001ad
Great analysis and I love how you went conservative to make your case. Obviously, 20,000 by 2020 is a low mark when you consider what is going on in this market space.
One thing I wanted to bring up when you are using economic market cap is the fact that you are looking at things through today's world economy. The world has roughly a $70T GDP if memory serves me right. That is a baseline to work from. I see astronomical growth in the future due to the development of AI and the implementation of other types of automation. Couple that with the fact we have another 3 billion people who are expected to come online and enter the world economy and I see world wide growth rates going through the roof. Perhaps I am a dreamer but I see abundance coming very quickly. Now I do realize it still will not be evenly distributed but the total pie should grow very rapidly (that is why I think the world's first trillion dollar man is somewhere on the annual Forbes list..Gates maybe?).
Hence, if we have a world wide economy of, say, $125T-$150T in 10-15 years, what does that do to the concept of $1M bitcoin?
Yup all valid and good points population growth, resources limited and growth will all fuel the coins value in USD higher. Plus lets not forget about normal inflation of FAIT that alone adds about 6% over the next two years.
That is true although I will same I believe as more technology takes over, the Fed will have a tougher time hitting its 2% mandate. Already more than 2% of the world wide economy is operating under the laws of IT which has a huge deflationary rate. My best estimate is that the US is closer to 4% since it is an advanced nation. That will only continue to grow as a part of the overall GDP.
By the way, if you want a laugh head over to my blog and read the post about $5M bitcoin.....
several Families are already in the trillion range... forbes is not allowed to publish about them think C300
That is true. The long time bankster families are in the multi-trillion.
Amazing when you can print money what you can do over the course of 150 years.
It awesome to think that we are still in the infancy of crypto currency. I tend to agree with you when you really look into the limited number of coins, and even more so, the much smaller number of coins actually being traded and not stashed by longterm investors. Some people say it's too late to get into Bitcoin and although, if you're just entering the market, you missed a crazy run but even if it double over the next 5 years to 10,000. Doubling an investment in 5 years is an incredible return. I think too many people try and jump on ICOs or penny coins hoping for crazy exponential gains. Thanks for a great read and your perspective on the future of Bitcoin.
Exactly which I think some people look at it as ahhh thats not much since they are use to massive gains of like 1000% lol which still does happen from time to time. But honestly a 3% - 10% gain is doing VERY well in the stock market. As of right now you can pretty much see those returns in a few months time and in some cases even over night.
Don't forget that Satoshi's bitcoins are tied up til 2020, and will start moving at that point. He has so many that it will depress the market quite a bit when he sells.
The thing is, if they want to make BTC a universal, new-world currency, it cannot be valued at anything too high. They will need to make another sub-coin.
Talk soon!
At super high prices per coin it actually does become hard to make small payments even 0.0000001 is worth a decent amount in those cases
use Ripple for small payments and BTC for your moon trip simply....
Yeah exactly. Our new numbering system will just be counting 0's lol! :D
Talk soon.
There are thousand of coins out there to choose and the only reason people investing BTC is all about the price and they keep holding it none go
Not really it is because BTC can be traded anywhere and used to buy things while other coins can not. Everything trades into BTC.
This is worth admiring
I hope you are right because even the little amount of bitcoin I have would be worth something.
@bitcoinflood Thank you friend for this post, it makes me bitcoin, I think it is the future and we are still in a great moment to continue investing in this currency. The future is in bitcoin. I think next year will be great. I follow you
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