I agree with both of your points. the 2nd or 3rd gen coin is going to be the overall winner. Probably the third gen. There are so many to assess, it is quite challenging to see who is going to succeed. BTC probably is not going away, and may be the reserve currency, but the 3rd gen winner is going to be the daily use. I have been looking at Stellar, Lisk, and Cardano to be the winner. Why NAV EOS, ELF or IOTA (I haven't had a chance to research these yet)?
I'm pretty sure CryptoInvestor suggested NAV a few months ago. I know he mentioned SALT, which, as of today, is back down to the price when he mentioned it. Until this video I was curious to see his feelings on the alts. But today's video says he is only here for the ride. I'm here for the long haul because one of these is going to create the architecture of the next iteration of internet commerce.
Got into NAV from CI's suggestion & a paid newsletter to which I subscribe also suggested it. So that is good enough for me. As for the others, I have the aforementioned newsletter do the research, (they help in the sorting), and then I will run them through my own set of metrics. It remains to be seen if the newsletter and the metrics actually last for the long term.
I do agree with your last sentence. But why restrict your choice to just one? For instance many pundits are saying that this year is the year of the platform. Maybe. But it's quite time consuming to do your own research. You have to be somewhat a geek and really understand the technology if you are to analyze below surface level.
So it's much easier to get a trusted source to do the analysis for you and run through a rough metric of your own.