SUMMARY
While the past is no guarantee of future performance, fractal impacts do linger. To this end, I wanted to share some attributes of the September 2017 correction and how it could have some fractal influences to this current recovery. The September correction showed an upward pointing wedge as shown in below chart. This type of wedge has bearish implications and usually the gudiance is that price can fall below the starting point. However, given how hard the sellers tried to beat down Bitcoin; they had depleted all their bullets. And even into this upward wedge; the seller repletion just was not enough to fulfill the wedge price travel guidance. I believe a wider scoped perspective always prevents myopia.
The early recovery of the September correction also looked very corrective in that it seemed very three wavish. The blue arrow shows how any good Technical Analyst might call it a bounce awaiting a lower low. But even at this early stage of the bounce, not enough sellers were populated so that price had to go up.
The recovery from the recent correction first started with a monstrous green volume, as it did for the September bottom mark. This is significant because it confirmed the depletion of sellers to the extent that basically not a seller could be found.
The initial recovery from the $5,900 bottom also looked very three wavish. It seemed very corrective and not impulsive. When price neared the upper white line, I had posted a critical juncture alert and noted the significance of breaching the upper white trend line. The breach occurred and thus far remains decisive.
Here also, similar to the September correction, is an upward wedge. It's most probable that there is not enough repletion of sellers to drive price to below the starting point of the wedge pattern. The horizontal blue lines show the presence of good support and the upper white trend line now also represents strong support. The blue and white arrowed lines project likely price pathways for the next few days. IF price goes below the upper white trendline and stays there, then we have a different scenario and analysis will be updated.
Legal Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor nor is any content in this article presented as financial advice. The information provided in this blog post and any other posts that I make and any accompanying material is for informational purposes only. It should not be considered financial or investment advice of any kind. One should consult with a financial or investment professional to determine what may be best for your individual needs. Plain English: This is only my opinion, make of it what you wish. What does this mean? It means it's not advice nor recommendation to either buy or sell anything! It's only meant for use as informative or entertainment purposes.
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Bitcoin is TOAST. End of story. It's proven that it cannot handle the workload. It will do it's best to stay over $10K, but eventually drift back to zero.
I need your help Haejin.
Can I please get a upvote and resteem from you on my latest post?
thanks.
Bottom is in...weak hands have left...let's gooooooooOO!!!!!
sometimes these graph lines becomes heart-beats. go up with high notes and go down with low notes. ♥
To the mooooooooooon! lol I think it will be a more gradual rise this time though.
I am the true cryptogod!
My TA will bring you all riches. Fuck this imposter, I am the true leader.
Haejin sucks, so follow haejinsucks!
Everyone go look at my firecoin projections here
Increase from $1.76 to $2.27
I follow your blog and up- vote often. I lean to bitcoin's rise was much, because it wasn't shorted. Now that the option to short bitcoin is available, it may slow its unbridled rise.
I come from the forex background where shorts play a role. Using that experience I do see bitcoin as bullish. Admittedly, I have never witnessed anything rise so fast in such a short period of time. To me, now that it can be shorted. Bitcoin may start experiencing normal retraces. If this be the case, 10,44x is a small retrace. A larger one at 8,777. Normally pa is attracted to these.
Pa has closed higher last week. It does appear very bullish, into resistance 11,670. I have a crystal ball, but it is broken. I don't own any Bitcoin. I don't have a dog in the race. I am just looking to buy at a lower price. If it stalls, without getting above 1,1671. Then it has a good chance of 8,777.
Respect to you, Gator.
Looks like Bitcoin has attracted new players. This year is going to be fun. 😀
Its a game, winner takes all the dreams.
Very Nice comment, Gator!
And may I may add, that is a lovely blue dress your wearing.
Thank you, Gator, ... that’s very kind of you...
I know. LOL
you are killing me.. L .....
Good to see both sides of the argument in analysis with another perspective. Thank you. Where is the money sitting? I guess that's the only question I have. Is it fiat or in taxes being paid from last year's gains?
I remember last years excitement. Some were taking out second mortgages on homes. When I hear that. I take a step back.
LOL... That is absolutely insane. But I guess if your young... you could recover by retirement if it didn't pan out.
How could it conceptually create anything other than more market cap for BTC? The contracts are settled in Cash so your hypothesis unfortunately is moot.
BTC is both a currency, a store of value and a payment system; (with incredibly finite inflationary pressure) it's meteorite rise in that regard isn't so unstable.
I once had a guy try to sell me a 100k in gold. He said in a few years it would rise 300%. I asked him, "than why would you sell it to me for 100k? All you need to do is hold it, for a few years". He continued on with the sales pitch. So I asked, "how do you earn a living selling gold, Do they pay you commissions in gold or usd?" He was a little agitated, and he responded "I get a commission check and cash it for dollars". I chuckled a little and replied "so you will trade gold for dollars because it will rise in value. Why would you trade gold if you thought it would rise 300% for usd? The same usd that you thought would lose 300%?" Not long after, the price of gold dropped 900$ like my charts hinted. I still didn't buy it. Not because I didn't want to own some. But because, I thought it would get cheaper.
The secret to investing is to figure out the value of something and then pay a lot less.
It's a good story, but I think you missed the boat @ 5900$. There's FOMO and then there's being stubborn; good traders admit when they made a bad trade; or missed a good one. That's why BTC shoots up like a rocket because everyone and their brother is "waiting for the dip" when it's in front of their face they still miss out and you'll be left paying 16500-17500 USD
There will always be another boat. Hindsight gets confused often with foresight. Wash rinse repeat. I cant win them all. I did miss a good one. I planned on holding a while. If it comes back, no harm no foul. It came came close to me target entry. It may be back. I am atm, at the disadvantage of missing the boat. Life goes on. Good luck, I hope you hit your target.
You're right there will be many more boats; 10150 is a solid entry, this is another boat before the IHS breaks upwards.
The best way to keep others from throwing rocks. Is to smile and move forward. The same thing that brought the shorter term forecast 10,438. Can bring 8,777.x or less. Its normal pa, nothing more.
It is time for the obvious question. WTF? Does anyone really believe that a pattern from September has any predictive power for March prices?
I understand masturbation is fun. Why do so many of @haejin supporters enjoy mental masturbation?
Triangular fractals non-stop
Preparing for bulls run. 🙌
Thank you HaeJin for this post. I almost closed all of my position out of panic but I changed my mind after your video ( got a lot to learn ....) now, it's going back up.
Thanks again!
BTC with me is never going to make me panic... I am a 'btceliever'. Great to see such wonderful analysis from the likes of @haejin
Thanks @haejin ! Buyer’s tank seems to be almost full, and let’s see how bullish this gets :)
nice post dear. your informatin is very usefull
What are the chances bitcoin is gonna die???? 0%
I believe bitcoin is gonna last forever even if you don't like it....
-To all the haters of bitcoin
Great analyse @Haejin! I really agree here. We will move up and break the neckline of the reversed head- & shoulder. Also macd, ema and rsi are confirming it.
The doji candles, it seems that he said, We'll close until Monday
Thanks For sharing, I am waiting for it to explode :)
Posting such a good information required a good understanding,very nice keep-up @haejin .
Praise the great Blockchain 🙌
Congratulations, your post received one of the top 10 most powerful upvotes in the last 12 hours. You received an upvote from @ranchorelaxo valued at 230.28 SBD, based on the pending payout at the time the data was extracted.
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So informative
Here's to hoping that we see a positive uptrend in the months to come. :)
The Great MEME for Steem War of 2018 just went hot.
하지만 지금은 내가 편지 H 조 숨어 있어 이후
Haejin, what do you think of this pattern from a longer perspective? Possible? or more Probable? Thank you for all that you do!
Great tip on not panicking and to close the computer and come back in a few days :D
Yeah, this tip works really well :D
Right said.. every one is free to invest according to his circumstances or choice. nice article giving the complete understanding
It's a knowledgeable post.keep sharing.thank you very much for sharing with is.keep it up.This post will be liked by all and benefited to all.go ahead.waiting for your next wonderful post.thank you.go on
logical analysis
Nice post.. do not forget follow me and vote me @haejin
nice info, thanks
So what you are saying is that it's moon time?
good
This is not investment advice:
From the market high on 17th Dec 2017 to the low on the 6th Feb 2018, there has been 3 primary movements: motive, corrective, motive.
These movements represent a motive wave 1 or A, a corrective wave 2 or B, and a motive wave 3 or C.
If the entire downward movement is an ABC downward correction of the larger upward move of 2017, then the market low at $6000 is in, and we should be on our way to new all time highs. A break above $17250 would confirm this, because as we break the head of wave 2, we invalidate the possibility of a downward motive wave 4 and 5 occurring. This is the bullish scenario.
If however the entire downward movement is a 123 downward motive wave, against the upward trend of 2017, then the market low at $6000 will likely be broken. The current price action puts us at wave 4, and a downward wave 5 in time will break the $6000 low typically, or truncate to create a double bottom at around $6000. This is the bearish scenario.%204.3.18.jpg)
A master of writing a lot while saying nothing.
Let's go to the new ATH! And then Alts should follow! :D
thanks
any comments on this guys post?
https://steemit.com/money/@tradewithtechie/btcusd-03-03-2018-update
Good l like photos
When knowing the bitcoin history you can guess it's future you can see in this infographic that the price is always standing up after a big fall for example in 2013 bitcoin got up from 100$ to over 1000$ then the big fall of 2014 then in 2017 the game completely changed the prices are still volatile but the graph is repeating it self at a different scale .
bitcoin history in one and single image
Great job! I always love your analysis. From my analysis For the past three weeks on Sundays BTC does a small retracement and by Tuesday it’s hitting new resistances. This is a great opportunity for some swing trading! This week is the same as the last few weeks.
That's really good work. Thank you buddy
Where do you guys think the price is going?
This is another great update, keep it coming!
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terste kaldım malesef.ne zaman düzelte olur acaba?
A friend of mine had $2K USD on an offline wallet mostly ETH/LTC/BTC and is goin to #hodl till the end of 2020...anyone here wanna make a prediction at how much that will be worth by that time?? Stoked on the 2 year hodl plan :)
This post was really good specially when you compared it with previous event, this was great leaning point for a beginner. thanks a lot
Excellent post!! But, I am personally not sure how much the technical analysis can be applicable to the crrypto market. My main logic is that technical analysis are the reflection of short term behavior of investors, but short term crypto market is too vulnerable to outter forces such as political influence. How's the experience on following the technical trends if anyone has?
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Nice post
Actually @haejin, I think we are hitting the top of a longtime, 2.5 month, downtrend channel. It remains to be seen whether the bulls can break us out of this channel. Until they do, I'll remain healthily skeptical:
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@stew/until-we-hurdle-11-8k-i-m-still-bearish-here-s-why
Your channel is not correct @stew
Channel is spot on. Which is why we are hanging at 11.5k.
I find it a little lower at this time than yours, but have not charted Bitstamp, as I see you do. Your chart would justify an upswing in the USD-BTC I did yesterday however, take a look :)
Trending lower volume while price trending down can be bullish. Regarding your notation. You can run out of willing sellers like @haejin noted here.
This is a long, but very explanatory analysis @haejin. Bitcoin trend is certainly positive and promising. As always, we are glad to share in your works.
This are difficult times, but rest assured we have your back. Always.