Would love to get people’s civilised opinion about this viewpoint. I especially beseech @haejin to please indicate what you feel as I believe there is a point which at least deserves the courtesy of being addressed.

The thing with elliot wave is that it’s correct as long as it’s correct. However, according to elliot wave everything will just keep going up because a correction is just a wave 2 or 4 of a larger trend.

You can keep on projecting larger and larger trends with no end. Any drops will just fall under a larger trend and will be projected to go up further after that.

However, this doesn’t reflect the real world unfortunately, as it ignores the reality that projects, stocks and assets can fail outright. If elliot wave was used on all Dotcom stock companies they should all be huge right now. The reality is things fail in the real world and this is fundamental. Elliot wave would have projected Bitconnect to keep rising and rising, and Haejin recently posted a projection that bitconnect was in wave 1 of a higher degree trend which would see it hitting all time highs. However, the fundamentals blew through that as bitconnect is now defunct and has been uncovered as a ponzi. It seems that sole reliance on elliott without fundamentals can blind people to reality.

In the long run what affects price is the fundamentals. Whether the project will stay afloat or not. And whether it will actually be something people want to use or not. The longer the timeframe, the more elliott waves are likely to fail as no one can predict events which would seriously fundamentally hurt any investment. For example, if there was a 3rd world war. The longer you project out, the more fundamental variables potentially affect price. Who’s to say there won’t be a catastrophe which destroys the internet or some fundamental change in the world order in the future? Im just using these as extreme examples obviously and not saying they’re likely in the near future but just illustrating that the further out we go, the less we are able to predict what will happen.

Elliott may be good for predicting price pathways in the short term, especially in a speculative market such as crypto, which is fuelled largely by sentiment. However, I feel it may be slightly irresponsible when Haejin makes extremely long term projections like the projection of Bitshares to hit $352 on a logarithmic scale and pushing it to his followers. It seems very clickbaity to give out such long term projections because it’s clear they have extremely reduced accuracy for the long term and I think most people can understand that in the long term fundamentals do in fact matter.

For further clarity let me use the example of a theoretical ball being throw which never stops rolling. I can predict with almost certainty what will happen to the ball’s pathway as it leaves my hand and in the first 1m of it’s travel. I can predict with good likelihood even what will happen to it 20m down the track. But as it travels further, I become less and less able to predict it’s pathway. The higher the likelihood of something coming along unexpectedly to change it’s course. What if a strong breeze suddenly starts and blows it off course or a dog comes over and takes it away.

These are just my musings and logical reasonings. Also note I’ve used neutral language such as “it seems” and “may”. Im not absolutely asserting or accusing anyone of anything. Please dont come with comments like if you don’t like it then just leave which add nothing to a discussion. Because i can equally say the same to you. If you dont like my comment you have the choice to ignore it. But that doesnt mean i should not be able to express a certain viewpoint does it? This is after all not a dictatorship, I hope.