I think you are right that we haven't seen enough capitulation, but if so where are we? We could be at the first selloff, or we could be near the bull trap and return to normal phase. Or has this just happened so many times now that this model is no longer useful to describe the market's psychology? The last option is kind of scary and makes my head hurt.
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That! is the mother of all questions, i mean, if we put everything aside and look at the charts, the 1D specially the bounce earlier to 17K was the perfect "return to normal" bull trap, and now we seem to be in the capitulation phase. But if we look at the weekly, we are at about the end of the selloff and in the Denial phase - which can explain the lack of panic i am seeing. So that means that the bull trap is still ahead of us!
One thing i been thinking about after writing this post, is if maybe over time, i have surrounded myself with seasoned traders and more accurate news sources and thus creating the echo chamber in which i can't see the panic, blood and capitulation i am so used on seeing? I will need to look into this.