Hello dear soccer fans and valuated competitors :-)
Thanks to @blocktrades for being the sponsor of the big Steemit tippster competiton. Read more about it here.
Here are my picks for the last 16 of the soccer world championship in Russia.
| Score | Team | vs | Team | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | vs | Argentina | 0 |
| 0 | Uruguay | vs | Portugal | 1 |
| 1 | Spain | vs | Russia | 0 |
| 1 | Croatia | vs | Denmark | 0 |
| 1 | Brazil | vs | Mexico | 0 |
| 2 | Belgium | vs | Japan | 0 |
| 0 | Sweden | vs | Switzerland | 1 |
| 0 | Colombia | vs | England | 1 |
Ich denke auch dass schon ein wenig mehr Tore fallen werden und es evtl auch mal eine Verlängerung geben wird. Zumindest wünsche ich mir das! Die Tendenzen würde ich aber auch so tippen, bis auf das Spiel Schweden gegen die Schweiz. Ich vermute dass hier leider die Schweden die Nase vorne haben werden....
Natürlich wird es (und gab es schon) Spiele mit mehr Toren geben, aber man kann ja nicht 2:1, 3:1, 2:0, 3:0 und 3:2 gleichzeitig tippen. :)
Die Einzelwahrscheinlichkeiten für jedes dieser Ergebnisse sind jedoch nicht höher als die für das 'banale' 1:0, sondern niedriger (schau dir einfach mal die Häufigkeiten der verschiedenen möglichen Ergebnisse bei der bisherigen WM an, dann siehst du, dass das 1:0 das bei Weitem häufigste - und damit wahrscheinlichste - Ergebnis war).
Ja damit hast du natürlich vollkommen Recht. Auf den gesamten Fussball gesehen ist übrigens ein 1:1 das häufigste Ergebnis. Habe ich mal irgendwo gelesen.
So einfach ist es nicht: Ich tippe nicht immer auf das wahrscheinlichste Ergebnis, sondern mein Wettrechner berücksichtigt auch die Wahrscheinlichkeiten aller anderen Ergebnisse, die ebenfalls zu Tendenzpunkten beitragen, falls sie eintreffen.
Der Wert für einen 1:0-Tipp ergibt sich beispielsweise aus der Wahrscheinlichkeit von 1:0 * 3 + den Wahrscheinlichkeiten für 2:0, 2:1, 3:0, 3:1, 3:2, 4:0, 4:1, 4:2, 4:3, 5:0, 5;1, ... , ... * 1 (weil ich im Falle eines 1:0 Tipps bei einem anderen Heimsieg ja nicht 3 Punkte sondern nur einen bekomme).
Außerdem muss ich natürlich die spezifischen Eigenschaften der Mannschaften berücksichtigen und kann nicht einfach davon ausgehen, ein bestimmtes Ergebnis würde, pauschal betrachtet, am häufigsten sein.
Ok! Dennoch wären am heutigen Tag bei beiden Spielen ein 1:1 Tip goldrichtig gewesen 😁
Das ist ja zum Mäusemelken! Seit ich mit dir diskutiert habe, endet plötzlich jedes Spiel 1:1! :)
Davor, als noch keine Einzelergebnisse getippt werden konnten, endete jedes zweite Spiel - wie auch gemäß der Buchmacherquoten als am wahrscheinlichsten angenommen werden konnte - mit 1:0/0:1.
Ich werde nieee wieder während eines noch laufenden Wettbewerbs mit dir über Wahrscheinlichkeiten diskutieren, haha!
Haha 😂
Tut mir ja echt leid aber ich glaube nicht dass die beinahe Alle jetzt 1:1 spielen weil ich so getippt habe. Im Übrigen würde ich alle Viertelfinalspiele wieder 1:1 tippen 😁
Ja, und bei Frankreich gegen Argentinien wäre ein 4:3 Tipp goldrichtig gewesen ... :-)
Ich fahre dennoch, auf lange Sicht gesehen, besser damit, mich am statistisch gesehen Sinnvollsten auszurichten ...
Da eine WM aus relativ wenigen Spielen besteht, spielt der Zufall eine große Rolle. Anders sieht es aus, wenn man z. B. eine gesamte Bundesligasaison tippt.
I am sorry to say that - But I really hope most of your tips won't work out and we will see a few more goals and higher results than 1-0 :P
Of course not all games will end 1:0, but as I cannot foresee which ones, I decided to follow strictly the calculated single event probabilities. :)
Unfortunately so far we only had to pick the winners, but not the correct score. In that case many of my 1:0 picks had come true already ...
Sure, according to statistics you probably have to bet that way.
Glad we already got more (dream) goals though!
Hab Dich gerade auf steemworld zufällig auf 67.999 stehen sehen. Konnte es mir nicht nehmen lassen, dir noch einen kleinen Schubser zu geben. Beim dritten hat's dann gepasst :D.
Glückwunsch :)
Danke - Auch wenn Steemit und Steemnow noch 67 sagen 😅
Steemit hängt halt mal wieder hinter her und Steemnow habe ich seit etwa einem Jahr nicht mehr genutzt. Steemworld und steemd sind jedenfalls up-to-date ;)
Yes, that's a really fantastic game to watch.
(But even if the game ends 7:4, I get one point for my 1:0 pick. :) )
Getting close to that 7:4 :P
:)
excellent information, expect positive results, the best is yet to come..
Did you mean Croatia maybe? I liked their group stage games a lot, but today, they had a hard time against Denmark: somewhat surprising for me ... But finally they reached the next round.
@jaki01,
I think Uruguay will win against Portugal this time!
Cheers~
I also would have guessed so, but my betting calculator 'forced' me to bet on Portugal. :)
Omg, @jaki01 I saw you got the 2nd place, congrats!! You are so good at it :-) Wish you luck!
Thanks! :)
Of course in a comparable short tournament like the soccer World Cup beside of statistics also pure luck plays an important role. If the competition was for a whole soccer season, let's say the German 'Bundesliga', the influence of luck would be much smaller.
Entra las selecciones que pueden ganar estan uruguay y francia porque eliminaron a unos de los grandes y favoritos como portugal y argentina, y ahorita estoy viendo el rusia españa y creo que ganara rusia,saludos.
Tenías razón en lo que respecta a Rusia. :)
Saludos!
Muchas gracias, ssludos ahora a esperar, brasil y croacia otros favoritos.
haha witzig. hab gerade deinen Post gesehen und im mehr oder weniger selben Moment hat Frankreich den Elfer bekommen! 😁
Sind dann doch noch ein paar Tore mehr geworden ... :-)
Viel Glück und spannende Spiele! Frankreich ist auch mein Favorit vs. Argentinien.
interesting screenings but for me in the game of spain and russia you get to penalties and it is very interesting to know how the game is going to be and with the missing games you are going to be very careful about luck and the way you play because nobody Argentina was expected to be a good team and is out of the world
One cannot calculate 'luck' ... same as when you roll the dice you cannot know a soccer result in advance. However you can try to calculate probabilities as good as possible.
You are the leader of footballOn the site steemit
Good luck and i hope that your picks will be right, but at the end of the day games should be really excited, and in my opinion whatever games and results we saw that were really surprising and at the same time amazing to watch.
Wishing you an great day and stay blessed. 🙂
Thanks! :)
Welcome. 🙂
it looks good France is one of those that has great opportunity Argentina unfortunately does not have a team to compete so far so according to the forecast that table is the most likely
I think that luck has played a decisive role in this world cup, since the favorite teams have had to depend on it to win some games ... Spain has just officially stayed out of the world and no one expected it like the Argentines and portugal ...
Luck always plays a role in soccer. However, in the long run statistics is your best friend when it comes to betting.
I really thought that Portugal was going to reach the final, but Uruguay has a great defense, and.. well I think Argentina played very well yesterday but there was a moment of carelessness
Portugal against Uruguay was very hard to predict. Bad luck from my point of view that Uruguay won ...
Concerning the game France against Argentina I think that France has some very fast and athletic players which finally made the (small) difference between these teams.
Hi @jaki01 i'm agree with you about Belgium,Croatia,Brazil,Spain and Switzerland, i think colombia,uruguay and argentina can do it better. Regards
Yes, maybe, just let's see. :)
That is valuable post and great information
Thanks @jaki01
Have a great day
I think france is most powerful team in this world cup.
Yesterday they played very well, indeed ...
Prediction is good but your prediction on porutgal was wrong . Let's see next what happen .
Predictions are based on probabilities. If I predict that the number 6 appears once in case that I roll the dice six times, that's a very good prediction ... but it is still a prediction only which need not to come true (if I roll the dice 600 times, then for sure we will see the '6' roughly 100 times) ...
@jaki01 - Sir like you predicted France won the match...
+W+
For a time I don't agree with your prediction @jaki01, but I still respect with which you expect.but unfortunately one of my favourite team portugal had to go home early at the Russia 2018 World Cup.But seeing France qualify for the quarter-finals of the World Cup has made Russia increasingly edgy.
With which of my predictions you disagree?
I agree with you, Portugal and France will win. but in my opinion francis able to excel with a 2-0 score
According to my calculations the probability of 1:0 is about 18 %, the probability of 2:0 is only about 12 %. That's why I chose 1:0. Of course that doesn't mean the game will end 1:0.
Do you also take part?
it is just a prediction. tend to change.
I do not have time to follow from the beginning. because of my solid activities.
so I do not follow in this extraordinary part
Predictions should always be based on probabilities. :)
If I predict the number 6 appears once if you roll dice six times, it is a very good prediction based on the probaility of 1/6 of the 6. That doesn't mean it always comes true ...
The more often you roll the closer reality approaches to probability ...
maybe your prediction is right.
Maybe ... :)
I guess you've put better selection in tournament. Hope you'll win this contest.
Waoo is excellent your precidicion have been fulfilled I hope they continue to fulfill greetings @jaki01
Let's hope together, haha. :)
That's right hehe 🙊😘
I have found a harsh predictions haha excellent greetings what you do I hope your next predictions are fulfilled greetings new follower from now 🙋
lots of surprises at the world cup in russia.
very many goals, far from people's predictions. such as french vs argentina.
but that's football.
many big clubs are returning home early.
@jaki01, I think Spain has more opportunity for win FIFA world cup. but unfortunately German lost from south Korea.
Also Croatia won all matches in first round. They have also opportunity coz they already shown their talent.
I like your picks. Probably both teams cannot take goal within 90 minutes.
well messi need to play in defence hopefully he don't mess up the scores hahah anyways all the best nice selection there
You have done amazing job in group 1 now i hope your preditions will work once again all the best sir.
Your selection is really awesome.
Wow fantastic selection ! Best of luck.
Thanks, let's see what will happen ...
Sir, Your team selection is great, but this is a prediction. Can not say which team will win, All teams are playing very well and will have their full effort to win the World Cup. I hope all your productions are perfect and you win this contest, My prayers are with you Best of luck!
Thanks! :)
Most welcome sir.
I agree with you with the results of belgium vs japan, because I'm sure belgia will be a champion in this world cup event ☺️
very accurate prediction. impressive idea to share it @jaki01
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very good that selection of players for the world cup I think they will win
Hm, selection of players? Anyway: thanks for the upvote ...
All matches talented once. Your selecting goal scores better @jaki01. First two game prefer to watch.
This is my picks:
In my predicted, Argentina get the same number with in fact. But, France win in the fact. 😀
France will become champion of this world cup .
Let's see ...
You are rocking sir,i am so glad about your predictions,its a tough job but you have done very well,luck favours the brave.
Great selections sir,hope you will surely win.
Great predictions sir,i will surely pray to the god and i hope you win.
Thanks a lot, but it's still a game only ... :)
Hello @jaki01,
Extraordinary good selection & incredible prediction you made of top 16 matches.
~@mywhale
Your statistics seem to be precise. I also guess that Portugal will win.
You mean you guessed ... we both guessed wrong, but that's soccer. :)
Good picks & willing to see who wins the end
Hope yor prediction comes true. I had seen in previous matches. Your picking had come true. Hope again ot will be same as you say.
Perancis menang 1
I think you will hit most with the results, although I would like to see Argentina fight more to the end (although it is unlikely).
Adding, hopefully not all matches end 1: 0, as for example the England-Colombia. I'm sure there will be many goals in that match.
Another match that will not be fit for the heart will be Uruguay against Portugal, we will see how Luis Suarez manages this time against the portuguese team.
Do you also take part in this competition? Would be interesting.
Even if you 'feel' that in the game Columbia against England there will be some goals, you have to decide if you choose 1:2, 2:1, 2:3, 3:2, 1:3, 3:1, ... and so on. The probability for every single of the high scoring results is lower than the probability of the 0:1 (and you can only choose one of them ...). :-)
And yes, Uruguay may win indeed, but my betting calculator 'forced' me to opt for Portugal. :)