That's a pretty good view on the situation, thanks for the post.
I'm still in two minds on how to go about this. I think in the end I will follow both ways, get in at the start and then get in again in a few months time. I only have small amounts that I can afford to put in so I'm not expecting to get rich on this anyway but we'll see what happens.
dan promised to post about the game theory options one has in this ico! so stay tuned and maybe it will help you make the best decision