In order to determine if a price movement (or market capitalization movement) is genuine, we need to check how the crypto community is thinking and how their behaviour is changing.
One way to look at it, is to check out the trading volume. Let's examine the volume in the last year. During the bull run from september 2017 to january 2018, the market cap of all crypto's increased together with the volume. That shows that the increase in price is probably the consequence of an increased interest and activity.
In the same way we see that the price dropped from january 2018 to april 2018 together with the volume. The last weeks, the cryptocurrencies market capitalization is increasing again and as you can see, the volume is keeping up with it. As long as there is no significant drop in volume I think we can see these moves as the start of a bull run.
As the volume is increasing, the chances of a 'Bull trap' are decreasing and the probability of long term bull market increases.
Keep in mind that this is not financial advice and just my own personal opinion. I would like to hear what you think about this.
To the question in your title, my Magic 8-Ball says:
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