The dPoll by @vimukthi prompted me to try a cursory valuation of Magic Dice.
Formula: Value of an Asset = (CF_1)/(1+r) + ... + (CF_n)/((1+r)^n)
- CF_1: Cash Flow in period 1
- r: Discount rate
- n: Number of periods (years)
Assumptions:
- 7 - 10 million $ in "dividends" p.a.
- Business is straight forward ~ 2% from the top. People like to gamble
- Could be inflated by hype (novelty) and airdrop is ongoing. Warrants a 7,5% discount rate for the business
- Current crypto volatility warrants another 10 to 15% additional discount rate
- Further discount because tokes are locked up until SMTs are released
- Because of rapid change in the field, only 3 periods taken into consideration
This yields a combined discount rate of 22,5 to 27,5 % (no SMT scenario)
| Min. value | Max. value | |
|---|---|---|
| Discount Rate [%] | 27,5 | 22,5 |
| Dividend [million $] | 7 | 10 |
| CF_1 | 5 | 8 |
| CF_2 | 4 | 7 |
| CF_3 | 3 | 5 |
| Total | 13 | 20 |
These assumptions yield a value for the business Magic Dice under current conditions between 13 and 20 million $.
An update of these assumptions is warranted when the market for crypto has stabilized, SMTs have been released and the airdrop is complete.
@remind-me on July 1st 2019 12:00
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