The Economy of the Future :  6 Trends that will Change the World

It is no secret that the world is changing rapidly. 20 years ago, the number of Internet users did not reach 3 million, but today they are almost 2.5 billion. Machines are robots. A weapon can print the 3D-printer.

All of this - not just features of technological progress, but things that can neither more nor less than to turn the world order. Analysts at Citi Research together with the University of Oxford named six global megatrends in the coming decades.

Trend 1. The world is becoming more integrated

A growing number of democracies, and more open borders. Over the past couple of decades, nearly half a billion citizens have a choice - where to live and work. Even non-democratic countries, such as China, to increase its contribution to world trade. And, of course, greatly influenced by social media.

Implications for the economy

The more open borders, the lower the tariffs, which facilitates the export and import of goods and services. For example, India. In the 1990s, its tariffs on industrial production surpasses 200%, and in 2009 became lower than 10%.

This graph clearly shows everything: the dynamics of tariffs of India, China and the world.

Reducing tariffs also encourage investment. Regional trade agreements now pursue broader goals - a deepening economic and political cooperation and integration.

Trend 2. The planet's population is aging

Here are the main reasons:

Reduced fertility (birth control became more accessible, and women as well as men strive to get an education and a career).

Reduced mortality (due to the fight against poverty and diseases).

The generation of "baby boomers" - those born in the baby boom period of sharp - becomes transformed into "generation old" older and in the near future.

Implications for the economy

In 1950, the world had 200 million people over 60 years. By 2050, their number will reach 2 billion. Working people will be proportionately less. This means that seniors issues come to the fore. For example, in Greece, the average life expectancy for men - 78 years and the retirement age comes to 57. That is, the state has more than 20 years to fully take care of the person stopped.

Here is a chart of age trends in all regions of the world (as a percentage). How many people older than 60 was in 2013, and will be in the year 2050:

Trend 3. "Technology of the Future" will be released on the global market

And it's not mobile Internet technologies that come to mind first of all, say experts. No application for smartphones to radically change our lives, and nanotechnology breakthroughs in genetics, 3D-printing, etc. They will cause a revolution in the global market.

Implications for the economy

Today, 3D-printing market amounts to $ 2 billion, but by 2021 will rise to 12.5 billion, according to Citi. This print is already being used in dentistry and other medical fields, as well as jewelry. Special hopes are connected with the possibility of printing organs for transplantation.

Trend 4. The world economy would depend on developing countries

It is expected that by 2030 the global economy will double. And by 2050 - will double again, predicts the Organization for #Economic Cooperation and Development. And it's not population growth, but the fact that developing countries show a steady and widespread increase in income and living standards. That is what will give impetus to the world economy.

Implications for the economy

Representatives of the middle class in China and India will become the largest consumers in the world, which means that the market will largely be guided by them. Take a look as radically change the situation: in the early 2000s, the share of these two countries was almost zero, and the main consumers were the EU and the US middle classes, by 2050 everything will be in fact the opposite:

Trend 5. Integration increase systemic risks for companies

Various disasters and catastrophes, natural or digital, local, regional or global scale, can significantly affect the international business. And the most unpleasant that no business leaders or politicians are not ready for this threat.

Implications for the economy

In today's world everything is so interconnected that the companies produce different parts of their products in different countries and on different continents. So if something happens where a major disaster, affected supply chains and production as a whole.

Natural disasters have led to a major slowdown in production and financial losses. For example, due to the heavy rains of 2011 in Thailand, many businesses were closed for the production of hard disk drives, and it is 28% of world production. Issue laptops and digital recording devices actually stopped. In the fourth quarter of 2011, Intel profit fell to $ 1 billion.

Total losses from the flooding amounted to 45.7 billion dollars (this is roughly equal to the GDP of Kenya!).

Here's how to increase in the number of natural disasters from 1900 to 2013:

Trend 6. The system of global governance has become obsolete

Government alone can not withstand international risks, but together they do not cope well, at least within the framework of current international organizations. They were created at the time and are not adapted to the new world order. In 1945, the year was 2.5 billion people appeared the UN, the world population and global GDP - 7 trillion dollars. Today, the population has increased by almost 3 times, and the GDP - 10 times.

Implications for the economy

In the workshop of typewriters can not fix your computer - as well as the organization of the 20th century are not able to solve the problems of the 21st century, analysts conclude. Take global climate change: all agree that this is indeed a serious problem, but almost do not do anything to solve it. So some international debate is not enough - you want to complete the reorganization of global governance systems.

If you have any questions, please write them in comments.
With you was Vyacheslav Smirnov.
See you soon!!