Price Projection of EOS ICO token - Data Analysis

in #eos7 years ago

I would like to share my data analysis of the EOS ICO. The ICO has been running for two days, so there is plenty of data for making some projections about the final price of the EOS token for this time window. However, please understand they are just speculations based on the current trends visible in the data. The real final price may be very different for example if the trends change or some other unexpected event arrives.

The whole analysis was done using a script I made which you can find here on github, so you can take a look and play with it if you want. I also welcome pull requests if anyone of you wants to extend the analysis further.

The analysis has three steps:

  1. Inspect all transactions sent to the EOS ICO ethereum account
  2. Find a good model for final price projection
  3. Look at how EOS tokens are distributed between accounts

The Model and the Projection

Now to the actual analysis. On the figure below you can see the cummulative amount of all ETH sent to the ICO (blue line). The big jump which happened around 24 hours after the start of the ICO looks like the investment from Yunbi exchange, which was announced by @dantheman on Telegram in advance (although it is 150k ETH instead of 120k). When not taking this single investor into account the trend seems to follow a logarithmic curve (orange line). Which makes sense for me, because this ICO is designed as a price discovery mechanism and it seems to be converging to the final price as less and less investors are contributing.

The final projection is the red dashed line which goes towards the amount of 250k ETH at the end of this ICO window, which means the price of 0.001250 ETH per EOS. The logarithmic curve was a surprisingly good fit for the data up to until around 5 hours ago. Since then there is some visible uptrend which might be connected to the recovery of ETH price. People making profits are usually looking for places where to reinvest them and EOS might look like an appealing destination. I am curious to see how the trend unfolds.

Token Distribution Between Accounts

Token distribution is a very important factor for each blockchain, because decentralization makes sense only when the influence of it's shareholders is distributed and not centralized in the hands of a few. Also the fair distribution was one of the main goals of this ICO, so let's see how it looks.

From the first figure it was visible that a major investor took part in this ICO. Their stake currently accounts for almost 62% of all ETH collected. On the following figure you can see how huge this investment is compared to all others.

If we leave out this whale and look at the other top 100 accounts participating in the ICO, we can see a familiar power law distribution. The second biggest investor is at 1% of all stake. 

The rest of the accounts and their stakes follow the same curve:

I'll wrap up with some interesting statistics:

Number of addresses taking part in the ICO: 8538
Amount raised: 75,157,924.99 USD / 242,122.59 ETH
EOS price: 0.3758 USD / 0.001211 ETH
Predicted EOS price: 0.3880 USD / 0.001250 ETH

As a future work I am planning to analyse the rest of the 351 auction windows.

I hope you found this post useful. Thanks for reading!

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Thank you for your effort.

This post received a 3.7% upvote from @randowhale thanks to @thinkagain! For more information, click here!

Awesome post and thank you so much for upvoting my post [Having The iPhone But Missing The I]

my last post contains a free gift Happy New year everyone!

@hr1
Thanks for sharing these statistics.
I am following EOS from minute 1 and I have the information that surely interests us mutually.
About the project itself, beyond the current price speculation that we should not detract because it continues to have EOS present and visible to those unaware of the project and serves us. EOS and is my humble opinion, goes beyond everything that is did in the moment.
That's why today I only limit myself to:
An analysis of the short-term price leaving aside any type of external data.
Let's see what you think
Greetings and thanks for sharing that information.
@thomasawa

https://steemit.com/eos/@thomasawa/eos-30-01-2018-i-write-and-analyze-only-eos-usd-price

Everyone is keep talking about it, maybe I should buy some?

It's wonderful to see now where EOS has landed many. Some wonder whether it's too late to get into it, but honestly Dan's work has only just begun!

There is so many new coins coming it has become difficult to be on the "coin" I am completely lost when it comes to cryptocurrency

Very interesting post @hr1 and very useful when reading and understanding about it. Thank you for sharing and i will follow you and regards from me beginner in steemit.

Hay my friend.. please follow me and vote me pleaseee

that's really in depth! (Y)

Ernst

Interesting analysis, i am watching the coin and planing to jump on one of the auction days. By the way, you recently voted on one of my blog posts and I wanted to come and return the favour because I really appreciated it. Have a great day.

As a future work I am planning to analyse the rest of the 351 auction windows.

I would be interested in that.

What I want to see is the promising applications from EOS. Good in-depth analysis. @hr1

@cryptopie got you a $0.01 @minnowbooster upgoat, nice!
@cryptopie got you a $0.01 @minnowbooster upgoat, nice! (Image: pixabay.com)


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Thank you so much for this! I didn't care about the data as much I cared about how the script was made. I'm learning Python myself, and this gave me a chance to make my own script to get some basic info from coinmarketcap using their API. I learned about using the JSON module and the requests module which I haven't used before; thanks so much. You definitely got a follow from me!

Thank you hr1, I really appreciate that you're not afraid to talk the math.

t. mathematican

According to this, the price is very high at the moment. (If I'm reading this correctly)

helpful info

@hr1 thank you for visiting

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Hey man @hr1, thanks for your vote up in some of my posts. By the way, very interesting post, thanks for sharing. Have a good day!

Cool, thanks for sharing!

Sorry... When it comes to me, you could have just as well written this post in Greek... lol... I was lost from the start, but it looks like it was very well thought out... Have a nice day...
@pocketechange

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Wow! Awesome ...Following you for more.
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omg he looks so crazy and funny

LOL haahaaa

Great analysis, thank you for your efforts :)

Thanks, hope it helps!

you're welcome :)

thanks for vote share & support

EOS will really take off like steem. There is massive headroom for improvement. thanks for sharing this post

@hr1~

[Korean Link-Project] It's Members get the benefits more, because of your strong vote! I'm here for say 'Thanks!' to you. have a nice a day!

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tip! 0.500

Postingan yang indah @hr1
Saya sangat salut tentang postingan anda
Anda sangat rinci menjelaskan poin demi poin
Memang anda @hr1 sangat luar biasa
Saya sangat takjub

Thank you so much for voted my post!

nice post.thanks for inform.

I like that @hr1
if you an visit to my post

Great post, very helpful. Thank for sharing ~^^

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i haven't got into ethereum yet just bitcoin. Would you say one is better than the other? I know this is off topic but i noticed you upvoted my song "Really Needin' You" well i just posted a music video snippet for it . If you have time check it out. Here's the link-https://steemit.com/rap/@kenentertainment/really-needin-you-make-em-scream-ugghh-music-video-snippets

Gracias excelente aporte

UpVoted ... This is a good read @hr1 and a sharing of useful Information...

Any decent way to get the in the states? I have been looking around. Interesting to see what they will be in a year.

Depends on what is decent for you... I think you could use a VPN

Wow !!! Good analyses...

I havnt integrated playing with ICOs just yet but i see why theyre attractive!! Well thought out post!

Another masterpiece by @hr1 ! Very nicely put together, awesome info I have to say. I need to learn a few tricks from you man.

Keep it up, you have my full support!

That's why I linked the script I used for it! So that you can learn from it and hopefully improve it.. :)

Btw is this script live? I'm not so familiar with Python but the are graphs there which go to 12000 instead of 8000.
Really cool stuff, I was working with R before but I do know OOP (Java, iOS)

Congratulations for your great analysis, keep up the journey :)

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