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Well you know the price / coin in the daily auction comes from the amount of ETH invested. So if there are 3200eth then you get 2x the EOS for the same price vs ICO price [ right? ]. Now, if I were to get in here, I'll automatically lower the amount of EOS ppl get for the price including myself. So I'm raising the price if I enter the auction but I'm also giving the people already in a good price if I don't :)
Makes sense?

It does.

With EOS already floating on Kraken and Bitfinex, I would suspect that Eth/round would follow the market i.e. If the price of EOS is higher then ico price on the exchanges, then contribution will also exceed 6400ETH and vice vesa.

Do you for see a chance of major arbitrage between each round and the prevailing market price at that time?

i'm quite sure ppl will game this system.