There’s a reason why these big exchanges like the CME and the Cboe have been waiting on this decision from the SEC. That’s because futures contracts are legal agreements. These big exchanges needed to be sure that Ethereum wouldn’t fall under the SEC’s jurisdiction. Now that there is no conflict, there’s not much in the way to prevent these big exchanges from adding Ethereum futures contracts to their listings.
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According to investopedia.com, a futures contract is a legal agreement to buy or sell a particular commodity or asset at a predetermined price at a specified time in the…future!
So let’s say you want to sell Ethereum on some date in the future, but you want to set the price right now.
Since the price of cryptocurrencies is pretty volatile, there is a lot riding on this future date and price.
You can either gain a lot by setting a price that is higher than what the current market price is at that future date, or you can lose a lot by setting a price that is lower than what the current market price is at that future date, and vice versa for those who want to be the buyer of a futures contract.
A more common way to say buyers and sellers of a futures contract is to say if they take the long or short position of that contract.
A long position means you agree to buy when the contract expires and a short position means you agree to sell when the contract expires.
Futures contracts are often used by investors as a means of hedging their cryptocurrency investments.
It’s a way for them to kind of skate around the market volatility by knowing that when their contract expires, they are guaranteed to buy or sell at that agreed upon price, again because these are legally binding contracts.
You can make futures contracts even more "fun" by adding the ability to use what’s called margin trading.
This means you’re allowed to trade with more money than the collateral you’re required to provide. This also means if your found on the ugly side of a trade, you’re responsible for covering the total cost of this trade, margin included.
This is of course awfully tempting for some because in the reverse outcome, if your trade is profitable, you end up gaining much more profit than you would have seen without using that leverage.
But you better hope you don’t get margin called.
If you want to get into this, please educate yourself on the high risks involved and how to best avoid getting liquidated.
I referenced it earlier in this video, but you may remember when Bitcoin futures were first unleashed.
This was a big deal for a couple reasons:
- First, it was a way for big time investors to get exposure to Bitcoin.
- Second, it was a way for these big time investors to begin shorting Bitcoin.
The timing of these Bitcoin futures contracts was nothing less than ideal for those wanting to short Bitcoin.
These BTC futures were released right when Bitcoin began its epic ascent to $20,000. No doubt it was this price spike that also spiked the interest of these exchanges. Ironically, it shouldn’t be hard to see now with hindsight how these investors could see a great opportunity to short Bitcoin.
They saw the price breaking out well past its previous all time highs and now they have a chance to short it without having a whole lot of exposure to the coin itself.
When all of these new futures contracts expired, and these sellers had to sell at certain prices, it was the beginning of the decline into a bear market for Bitcoin, of course with the other alt coins following suit.
So it’s quite understandable why many people are nervous to see Ethereum futures now on the table for these big exchanges.
But I read an interesting article which presented an alternative perspective.
Bitcoin futures certainly ushered in the bear market, but with prices being as low as they have been for as long as they have been, perhaps these big investors can see the potential gains to be made by going long on futures contracts.
If that’s the case, it’s not hard to imagine that Ethereum futures could very well help lift cryptocurrencies out of this bear market and into the bull market that we all know and love.
Additional Reading/Sources:
SEC Clears ETH as not a Security
BTC Futures explained
What is a futures contract?
Different Perspective on ETH Futures
Thanks for useful info...:)...
I love how you discovered this @heiditravels. Your thought process is very logical. Yes, Ethereum futures are another investment vehicle for Wall Street to get in. We will see what happens in the coming months!
short term no, mid term no, long term yes
Hopefully, bitcoin futures pushed prices up like crazy, eth futures should probably bring a new bull run
Hi Heidi!
Thanks a lot once again for this new video.
Sorry but I do not have a lot of time lately so I am not really able to comment on every post. But really amazing work and thanks for helping the crypto community.
Hi wow thanks a lot for your upvotes. I really appreciate that. Thanks.
Well since BTC CME futures came in we've seen a study decline in the price since the first futures contracts expired. I don't see how financial derivatives on cryptocurrency benefit the ecosystem as a whole. All they're doing is hedging bets against the growth of what utlimately should replace the system they're currently using. It seems like a way to bleed out crypto in its infancy and slow down its impact, its only really delaying the inevitable shift. Innovation cannot be stopped
To the question in your title, my Magic 8-Ball says:
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When bullish trend comes, ethereum will the first to take the flight.
eth has been mnore bullish than btc lately
I don't think that Ethereum futures could turn the market around but it could definitely help push the price up once the bottom of Bitcoin is in.
That said, in the long run, I don't think that the Ethereum network will be able to handle all the dapps built upon it.
Legitimate dapp projects may use Ethereum as a testnet, but they are likely to build out their own Blockchain for their livenet. Additionally, a lot of these dapps will likely fail because they can't compete with centralised competition. So I think, in the long run, the Ethereum price with crash and its current market cap will be absorbed by Bitcoin.
Thoughts?
Let's be fair, the futures are created merely because it is a great way for exchanges to attract new customers and generate larger volume, in turn resulting in higher income.
As for the uncertainty, I am quite sure that the Bitcoin futures are cash-settled, meaning that the buyer or seller of the contract gets the difference between the market value of the asset and the contract price, ETH, in this case, added or deducted to their account. No ETH is actually transferred.
No, it will drive eth down.