Hello SPIers, the bullrun is officially over for this cycle. We've entered a bear market and if you've not sold, you'll be waiting another 4 years assuming President Musk has not started World War 3 by then (prob bullish for BTC tbh). The markets have a funny way to trick us and the Crypto Gods are laughing their asses off for us having faith that things would repeat.
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BTC has become a stable coin over the past 3 months and ALTS have dropped 50-80% in the same time. OH, what a time to be alive! What is the narrative for this cycle's ALT season? In 2013, ALT tokens were new and sexy, in 2017 we had ICOs and cefi, in 2021 it was NFTs and defi. We thought this cycles ALT season would be powered by AI and Gaming blockchains, but nah, what did we get?
Crack cocaine in the form of meme tokens supplied by pump.fun with people killing animals, causing self-harm and doing outrageous things to promote them so they can rug a few thousand dollars. This is crypto! This is what happens when the level of entry is a JPEG and $3 with no boundaries/rules attached.
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A quick interest search shows there are over 36M cryptos in existence today and we're on track for 100M by the end of the year. Luckily only around 20,000 of these are considered active and just over 1100 are actual blockchains so 99+% of tokens created are now dead. This will also increase we most tokens created these days have a lifespan of under 4 minutes.
I've seen people say they think ALT season has not arrived yet because there are too many tokens and money is being spread thinner between them all. I mean that does sound right and makes sense but you can check and see that BTCs dominance over the total market is 58% so im not sure anything is being spread out when BTC is 58% of the total market. The total marketcap of all cryptos is $2.9T and the top 5 cryptos hold a combined marketcap of $2.35T. This means that the rest of the crypto market is worth a mere $550B.
I think the ALT season has not arrived yet because the last ALT season in 2020-2021 brought in lots of new crypto investors who missed the top, watched their bags get nuked 70-95% during the bear market and now they are waiting to sell. With Trump back in office and Elon running the country from Twitter, people are panic-selling and the FUD is real.
This does not mean things will not pump. We can say the cost of living, inflation, and high interest rates but crypto is manipulated like every other market and the ones that pull the strings are not affected by any of the stuff that is hurting normal people like you are me. It's more like, we're just on the ride and things will happen are not happen.
During the past bullrun years, there's always been a pump from the start of the year until Spring, a market correction of 30-70% during the summer and then a massive pump from autumn till year-end. In this bull cycle, we're 100% not getting the pump from the start of the year. So what does this mean? 1 of 2 things.
1/ This cycle is running early and the pump we had from September till Nov was the first pump and we are now correcting 30-70%. If this is the case, we have 1 good pump left in the cycle before things take a turn.
2/ We're late and the markets start to pump within the next few weeks with a correction during late summer and the last pump in winter till year-end.
Sadly we have no way of knowing because the correlation between previous cycles and this one has been broken. This puts us in a tricky spot because we know there's a pump coming sometime this year but will it be a quick pump, correct, pump, decline into a bear or will be it a slower pump and then decline into bear?
We have to wait and see what happens. Things have been declining for almost 3 months so either way, it cant get much worse. One thing I can say for sure is planning for the next cycle 2026-2029 will not be as easy.
The bullrun might be over but I've not seen reports or videos from any respectable crypto analyst advising to sell yet. There is alot of FUB out there but im not worried long term. For SPI, we wait for HIVE to pump. In 2021, HIVE went from $0.15 to $0.80, down to $0.22 and then mooned to $3+. This cycle so far, HIVE went from $0.17 at the start of Nov to $0.68 and it dropped to $0.25 a few weeks back. I feel there's 1 good pump left in the cycle, a correction and then a mini pump Oct/Nov but not all-time highs.
Please Crypto Gods, dont do us dirty, 🙏
Getting Rich Slowly from June 2019
| Token Name | Main Account | Link to hive-engine |
|---|---|---|
| SPI token | @spinvest | SPI |
| LBI token | @lbi-token | LBI |
| Top XV token | @spinvest | XV |
| Eddie Earners | @eddie-earner | EDSI |
| EDS miners | @eddie-earner | EDSM |
| EDS mini miners | @eddie-earner | EDSMM |
| EDS-vote | @eds-vote | n/a |
| EDS DOLLAR | @eds-d | EDSD |
| DAB token | @dailydab | DAB |
| DBOND token | @dailydab | DBOND |
| RUG token | @rugem | RUG |
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Way to totally depress me today!
It would be a cool time to buy the dip again but I already spent it on the last few dips, lol. Guess we'll just hold...
yeah, I hear you!
Love your 2 analysis charts. Seems to me the "experts" mostly say, "if this happens/we reach this level we'll go up", "if this happens/we reach this level we'll go down", "if neither of this happens we'll go sideways for a bit". "Or there might be a black swan event and then all bets are off the table". 😂
At this point, we could any of the 3 and i would not be surprised. lol
Exactly! 😂
I feel the real wrench in the works this time is the American stock market. It is way too inflated, just waiting to burst. We are right at that historic line of resistance, set by the 1929 epic bull and the dot com bubble. Both that and the buffet indicator shows us way too high. With Trump just out to enrich his friends while Musk dismantles the US gov, this bubble could go at any time. How will that affect the crypto market...? That is the X factor to me.
Ah well, let's just play it by ear and see what happens, eh? Good luck!
Fun Fact, Im sure your aware the US dollar used to be fully backed mainly every dollar in the world could be claimed for gold. Today the total marketcap for gold is $19T which is the same value of the top 8 companies on the US stock market.
The bubble is real and it could be a 1929 style crash
Hopefully not that bad. I can easily see another dot com level crash but with a much longer recovery than last time, but at the same time I could see it being much worse. As I've posted about on Hive a few times, we shouldn't panic, but we need to be aware that this is something that could easily happen and we should have some kind of plan for how to deal with it if it does happen.
The inflation situation is out of control. It's hard to say how this draw down absolutely crushed investors.
Plus a lot of Degens have turned to sports betting.
I am of the opposite opinion. I do not believe that the cycle has ended.