Hi smooth I made a question post few days ago about HBD daily for transactions but didn't get so many answers. You may be the right person to answer my question/doubt.
Besides the cool thing of pay a coffee with hbd using mobile phone, and according to how the things exactly work at the moment for the generic cases, we are talking about 60 or 70 example but it can be 1000 or 2000 in the future (someone pay in HBD, local store convert HBD to Hive on internal market and send to Exchange to buy fiat), in practice don't you think this ends always in sell pressure to Hive?
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The sell pressure comes from the payouts. If you pay out HIVE and people want to cash out their rewards, it's sell pressure. If you pay out HBD and people want to cash out their rewards, it's sell pressure for HBD, which then the stabilizer or someone else has to buy and convert to HIVE, ultimately becoming sell pressure for HIVE. So either way it is sell pressure for HIVE. When you pay people out in something they don't want, there will be sell pressure.
Where HBD can help is the stable value removes the urgency to sell it. You might still want to cash out, but it becomes less important to do so right away to not being taking a lot of risk. So perhaps you let it accumulate in your account for a while, or perhaps you stash it even longer term in savings to earn interest. The stable value is key here because otherwise it is just another speculative token people want out of if they aren't in the mood to gamble. So as HBD has become more stable we should see people more ambivalent about rushing to sell it.
Also, people using HBD for transactions gives them a reason to hold it without cashing out, since they can spend it to someone else who can spend it to someone else, and so on (though ultimately someone along the chain of spending may want to cash it out, the longer that chain, the less intense the selling pressure).
Thanks for the reply. I understand and agree with you, it's all about sell pressure, at some point everyone will sell, unless they want to plant the assets in the garden.
This is the theory, in practice the HBD businesses are all converting HDB to Hive and then to fiat but it may be different one day.
About the stabilizer I've also one doubt.
If more exchanges list HBD and HBD start having more liquidity, sell pressure, etc, it will not be a great pressure to stabilizer to keep the peg on internal market?
I don't actually see that. If you look at the Hive Sucre businesses, at least some of them just sit in the HBD they receive without selling it. I'd guess they'll sell it eventually but they don't appear in a hurry to do so, which is downstream of the value stability being good.
I don't think exchanges make much difference to this directly, though the would give it more exposure which is overall a positive.
Have you run the numbers on that?
By observation but if you have numbers it would be awesome if you share with us. From the 60 or 70 business right now in hive accepting HBD, how much of them are sending money to exchanges and how much are keeping the HBD. I'm not criticizing, they have to pay for what they sell to suppliers.
The 51 businesses on my list are collectively holding 1,998.512 HBD + 9.8 in savings. That's about 9 times the weekly average value transferred (based on 13 week MA). It will take a much more complex query* to compare overall flows, ie. how much is sold each week, how much is kept in business accounts, how much cycles back into local Sucre HBD economy.
Edit: A better comparison is that it represents more than the last 7 weeks in transfer value summed.
*It would have to not just track transfers but also market orders, savings etc.
So it means that those 51 are holding 9x more than transferring, right?
My idea by observation was not that but I believe more in your numbers, that's great! 👍
Rather, they are holding 9 average weeks worth of transfers in HBD.