Very thorough analysis. I find it very interesting the way the Hive price matches the early days of Steem. That is a rather odd coincidence. The key, as with any crypto, is going to be adoption. If Hive can get it's name out into the centralized platforms as a legitimate and better alternative then it can grow its base of users/investors exponentially. Plus, once people are here and see what Hive has to offer as an ecosystem, I think they'll be able to see the potential and will want to stick around for the ride. Time will tell, as always.
Hive has far more to offer than what Steem had to offer in late 2017. Steem managed to attract quite a lot of users around that time. Market cap and persistent marketing and promotion from people like Jerry Banfield would have helped a lot. Sadly, we were unable to keep many of them. Steem had many problems back then. Steemit may have been the biggest of those problems. Hive has less problems and more to offer. If Hive can attract similar numbers that Steem did, I believe we will see a much higher retention rate and possibly even continued growth during the bear market.