I was reading what is more likely a fanciful story of a billionaire, who thinks that it is possible that in twenty years from now, there could be a million people living on Mars, setting up a colony with the aim to be self-sufficient - with the first people making the trip at the ten of the decade. The billionaire is Musk of course, and while it might be up there like the flying cars that are still yet to grace our skies in any practical sense, it did get me thinking.
Would I make the cut?
No.
Putting aside that twenty years away I would be closing in on seventy, as well as all the health issues that would rule me out, and of course that I get travel sick if I feel my stomach go even slightly up and down - I just wouldn't make the cut.
Would you?
A million people sounds like a lot in the sense of a small city, and it might be easy for us to imagine that it would be a bit like a city of the same size on earth - but it would have to be nothing like that at all. Because in almost every way, it would have to be the "perfect" model of a city where everyone has a vital role to play in adding value to the community and having to rely on and trust that others are doing their jobs accordingly. There would be far less room for error, and everyone would have to be reliable as can be predicted in skill and in health.
There would be no padded resumes.
And, for that kind of undertaking, I would assume that the average experience and intelligence of the million would be incredibly high, with some of the smartest, most capable people earth has to offer will be present. There would be very little room for wastage of human resources. And this gets me thinking about what that community might function like, as they would have a common goal of survival and growth that ties them together, interdependencies on skills that require them to collaborate and high intelligence that might be able to overcome some of the problems we have on earth.
Would there be violent crime?
And, it isn't that smart people don't commit violent crimes, but on earth it is done with a certain amount of security involved, where no individual is very vital for our existence. The irony is, there are some individuals who might be one of the catalysts of our non-existence. Over seven years ago I wrote an article called "The Spock Effect" which explores some of the possible potential of extreme human intelligence - and this came to mind thinking about the million on Mars.
That wouldn't be extreme intelligence.
But far higher than the average population on earth.
Who knows, perhaps my daughter might have a chance to go to space in her lifetime, but if she were to be one of the first million on Mars, she would have to carry a pretty solid kit of technical skills with her to offer the community, right? At that point, it isn't a city of artists, it is a city of engineers and scientists. It is a place where they are able to problem solve highly complex issues, and be ready to overcome hardship and adversity at any moment. Even when things are running smoothly, they would always be surrounded by existential risk.
Money doesn't buy answers on Mars.
What is their mental health condition like? How would the average person on earth cope with the extreme conditions they might face on Mars? How many of the current crop of Gen-Z even have a chance to be considered - even if they have technical skills? I would assume that the selection process would be about as stringent as it gets, and look into a whole range of factors that wouldn't be legal to ask about on earth.
If I could go though...
If I had the skills, if I had the body, and the stomach for it. I would go. If I could take my wife and daughter - I would go. Just imagine what it would be like to live in a city where everyone is valuable, where everyone is working together, where everyone is looking to make things better.
Pity we have to go to space for it.
Taraz
[ Gen1: Hive ]
There are 5 parts to the poll, so I have given you 5 votes.
I can math good.
The idea of one city on Mars is wrong, indeed it is dystopian, because the city government would have even more control over you than on Earth.
The most attractive aspect of Mars is the ability to "avoid Imperial entanglements" to start society again, very small with no government and only a very limited number of rules.
It is entirely possible for a small group of like-minded people (eg Hiveans) to start their own colony and be self sufficient in the basics: energy, air, water, food, shelter and trade with other communities and Earth for specialised goods.
Cryptocurrencies and decentralised blockchains like Hive provide building blocks.
Cheap and plentiful energy from Solar Power provides self-sufficiency.
Yes, it is dystopian, but I don't think it would be a true city at that point anyway - it would be a large factory. That is why the skills for roles would be important. The citizens would be employees of a sort.
Also, one city is too risky anyway - but it would make the post something it was not meant to be, to go too far into any of that :)
Can Bitcoin be mined on Mars? ;)
You would have latency issues mining main chain BTC on Mars but there would be Mars based Cryptos that were linked / wrapped to BTC.
No way for me! I am a true land lubber, no space and no deep water. Feet firmly planted on the Earth. If the Martian city was populated by the inhabitants of Earth, you can bet their would be crime, violent and white collar. Their would be petty squabbles, jealousy, lethargy and some folks would have to shoulder all the work while some other folks would be playing video games on the couch..fuckers! I don't care how vetted they would be...if you put one million humans on the same planet, they're gonna fuck it up.
If my toes don't touch... :D
I reckon it might take some time for the real crime to start - to begin with, they might be too reliant on each other. But, in short order - regression back to the mean.
I’d recommend reading the ‘Red Rising’ trilogy of books. Science-Fiction of course but it gives an account of the changes to society that the human race felt necessary to conquer space. As you say, no room for passengers within a colony on another planet. Ultimately the off world colonies defeat those of earth and bring about a society where all people are born into a sect (colours) ruled by the super human ‘golds’.
Of course they are gold..... :D
Honestly, I don't think we are going to get anywhere near off-world colonies that are viable - we are too violent.
The reality is I'm already too old and out of shape. But if by some miracle the opportunity came up, I'd jump at it.
Interestingly, for the last question, I thought about it, and came to the conclusion that hyper-intelligence isn't a great survival trait. Yes, you need some hyper-intelligent people, but you also need farmers, plumbers, electricians, construction workers etc where skill with decent intelligence is more useful. If everyone is hyper-intelligent, they'd all want to be in charge !
It might also make sense if a colony was a cluster of smaller settlements in a region rather than one big city. It reduces the impact of any single catastrophic failure. Contrary to what most people think, I also reckon the focus should be on the lowest technology possible to make things work. High tech means high complexity and higher chances of failure. Simple technology is easier to fix in the field if the main repair depot is on the other side of the sun.
The last one wasn't about survival itself, but rather just tied to the article I linked. Super intelligence wouldn't preclude farmers either. I think if people were truly super intelligent, they would realise what is actually required and what actually has value - rather than the smartest people on earth, building financial derivative products to generate monetary wealth.
For sure. But, it wasn't the point of this piece! :D One city is a major risk factor. Centralisation sucks :D
Did the voting... Not risking it at all lol.
A million people on Mars would sound cool, but also big mess waiting to happen. Imagine messing up your job and suddenly everyone’s air supply is at risk. No pressure, also, no fast food, no random late night snack run, just eating scientifically optimized space meals forever. I’d probably lose my mind. And yeah, the idea of a society where everyone is actually useful, I don't think so lol. No influencers, no reality TV stars, just people who actually know how to fix things. Maybe Earth could take some notes from your blog before we start shipping people off
I am guessing you are pretty young? :D
Society doesn't need most of the jobs currently being performed.
I'm 3 years away from 30... So yeah not that old... That's why it's always good to follow guys like you to learn some stuff before I get there
Well that has screwed the Gen-Z group and I doubt the next batch will be any better.
:D
We made it to Mars - everyone took selfies, edited them with AI, and then died of starvation.
I did not answer the Part 2 because I don't know what "the skills" for the mission are. Most of my skills are "useless" but I also have a bunch that would be useful.
And I did pick something for part 5 but polls make my life difficult again because I'm being a fence sitter again thinking hyper intelligence would solve most problems but would also create more problems. Hopefully the hyper intelligence also applies to emotional intelligence so the more problems could also be dealt with x_x
Not that I would go at all, part of it is just a mental block of just how much I hate colonialism, and a bigger part is that to even bother expending the effort to think about moving there would have to be virtually guaranteed and massive benefit to doing so and a new colony doesn't sound like it.
There is a very non-zero chance that 20yo me might have gone along for the adventure but given that I didn't even go to Melbourne when I was thinking about it and I had even less useful skills then than I do now I probably wouldn't have made the selection criteria never mind the cut XD
I am surprised that so many people think they have the necessary skills. :D
And in part 5 yeah - it would create new problems. The interesting thing is - we have no idea what it would be like to be hyper intelligent, let alone have a society filled with it. I suspect that if we really were at that level of smart, we would be content much easier, focusing on real value rather than perceived value. Wealth wouldn't be useful.
Melbourne is scary.... ;D
Actually, I almost got shot by the police there when I was 15.
If Musk is involved, it would be dystopian, all but guaranteed. And why a million people on Mars? Maybe a million robots, sure.
BTW, for anyone interested in fiction about Mars, I’d recommend Kim Stanley Robinson’s Mars trilogy (Red Mars, Green Mars, and Blue Mars).
I think dystopia is all that lay in front for humanity for a while.
I would not go, despite my love of science fiction I realize that a trip like that is a one way ticket to Hell. I would rather build a small Paradise on Earth for myself and my family. I don't see why the best and the brightest would want to sign up for this extremely challenging one way mission.
I wonder how bad things would have to get for the majority of people to leave earth?
Has to be pretty dire... If the planet is dying and average life expectancy is around 30 years it might be worth a chance of going to Mars :)
In 20-40 years, there will be a million robots and several dozen people on Mars. People will have to make a base deep under the surface, since the radiation doses are very high on the surface. The same underground city can be made on Earth. But why - when there is beauty of life on the surface of the Earth. I don't want to go to Mars, but I would visit a planet similar to Earth in another star system.
That beauty is surprisingly fragile from the human perspective. A few A-bombs and it all changes.
I think that the Earth will be inhospitable for livingbeings due to the climate change as Venus once upon a time. Thus, I would have liked to go, but I don't think that I will see those days. Let's say, it will be like in the way of Titanic, poors will stay here...
Floating away on a piece of drift wood into space... :D
I heard a podcast with a former astronaut, and he was explaining why he wouldn't go to Mars just because of what you cited. Mental health will be a difficult challenge to face the extreme conditions of the planet. The planet suffers with extreme radiation and weather. He mentioned that the first group of humans there would give a nice reality show with one fighting with the other and with big fights.
People need to remember that a trip to Mars even talking about 20 years will be a trip without return. It will be comparable with the first Europeans in the Americas, arriving to a new land without structure, but with terrible environmental conditions.
In twenty years from now, the conditions of Mars might be better than on earth at the rate we are heading down a slippery slope to oblivion! :D
Maybe...but what is going to be cheaper? "fixing" Earth ? or making a new Earth on Mars?
I assume the idea is to build a sustainable Mars, and then leave earth to die - and the 99.9% with it.
I can't see this now since the terraforming would cost much more than avoiding a bad future here ! That could change of course in the next 20 years... For now I see Mars as a pit stop to refuel and get more food so humans can explore further the universe xD
I want to get a mars land right now. Tomorrow will be too late.
It is all about location, location, location!
Did you hear about the latest scuffle at the Antarctica base? Imagine that happening on Mars and then you don't have any way to get back home. Last I saw several of the people are wanting to leave Antarctica now. I don't know how accurate that is.
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STOPI would not want to go. As much as I fear that humanity and earth are doomed Earth is still my home. Also I may die long before extinction of humanity. That would be preferable.
I may be mistaken(from what I remember nazis were all about creating a a pure race) but weren't they also not fond of old and sick people as well? Well maybe this is not coincidence...
I'm feeling a bit tired to make this trip.
I realised I voted the second choice for all the parts. That said, I don't have any issues if nations and companies dedicate resources on space exploration, but I am personally focused on making the best out of my life on Earth and these stuff seems too out of reach for the man on the street.