Model Madness 2020: Major Conference + Wednesday Tournaments

Today is a huge day. We are covering nine different tournaments including several major tournaments. Since there's a lot to cover, let's get right into things!

Big 12 Conference

Last Year's Champion: Iowa State

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Challengers

Outsiders

It was Kansas and Baylor that led the Big 12 this season and it was Kansas that came out on top after a disappointing season last year which saw them not finish with at least a share of the Big 12 regular season title in over a decade and a half. This year they asserted their dominance. They are number 1 in three models and number 3 in the EDM. Baylor finished in the Top 5 in the same three models and 9th in EDM which is solid for finishing second in the Big 12. Both teams are number 1 seeds regardless of the result.

West Virginia is the only lone real challenger. They struggled at times in the Big 12 and finished with the 6 seed, but their strong non-conference and solid Top 25 rankings across the models has them potentially competing for a 5 or 6 seed in the NCAA tournament.

Of the outsiders, Oklahoma looks like they are in and will be fighting for seeding during this tournament although they could really use a boost in beating West Virginia in their first game with no Top 40 model rankings. Texas Tech and Texas are on the wrong side of the bubble. Tech at least as a good EDM in the Top 25, but mediocre schedule rankings with the SPM and MASPM outside the Top 60. Texas just has mediocre rankings for an at-large bid. The winner of their game is most likely out of the field and the winner will have to beat Kansas in the semifinal to gain security in their position.

Big East Conference

Last Year's Champion: Villanova

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Challengers

Outsiders

It was a three-way tie at the top for the Big East tournament, but at least for our models, Creighton and Villanova are the two main contenders. Creighton has solid ratings with all nearly in the Top 10 and having a stellar WRI in the Top 5. Villanova is just behind them at the 2 seed. The SPM favors their schedule, but the other models were more impressed with Creighton's margins of victory. These teams are 3 seeds competing for 2 seeds.

Seton Hall is the main challenger having lost in tiebreakers in the tie at the top of the Big East. Their EDM is less impressive at 29, but they still have a Top 10 WRI and it wouldn't be a surprise if they won out. Butler comes in ranked in the AP Poll and have Top 30 rankings except for the EDM which comes in weaker at 46. Both teams look to improve their positions and consolidate Top 4 seeds in the tournament.

Providence is safely into the tournament and will be playing for seeding, while Marquette and Xavier lie on the bubble. Marquette has okay Top 50 rankings in our 2019 models, but their quality 29th ranked WRI suggests that they are probably on the right side of the bubble for now. Xavier has work to do on the other side of the bubble, with a relatively mediocre EDM rank of 74 and none of the other models making a strong case outside of the WRI (37th). Xavier has to win their first round game and would likely move into the field if they could beat Villanova.

Big Ten Conference

Last Year's Champion: Michigan State

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Challengers

Outsiders

The Big Ten Conference has been the deepest conference all year and all of the teams listed are either going to be in the NCAA tournament or are on the bubble as we speak. The conference ended in a 3-way tie between Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Maryland. The models are split between Michigan State and Maryland who hold the 2 and 3 seeds respectively. Those in this group will be fighting for a 3 or 4 seed in the NCAA tournament.

Those in the challenger group are comfortably in the NCAA tournament (6-7 seeds) and will be fighting to potentially go for a 5 or 4 seed if they win out. Ohio State has had a strong finish to recover from a weak middle period of their season. Illinois had the best record in conference of the 4, resulting in their 4 seed. Iowa and Penn State look like Top 50 teams based on their rankings, although WRI gives them credit for their tough schedules putting them both in the Top 25.

In the outsider group, Michigan and Rutgers are fairly safely positioned in the tournament field (8-10 seeds). Michigan has faded since their strong start to the season which can be seen in their strong EDM score versus the weaker SPM and MASPM scores. Indiana, the last team to mention is on the wrong side of the bubble, but with a conference so strong, it really only takes a couple of wins to correct their course. But it will be tough given their 11 seed which means they get no byes and play on the first day against mediocre 7-24 Nebraska.

Pac-12 Conference

Last Year's Champion: Oregon Ducks

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Challengers

Outsiders

Oregon won the Pac-12 Championship last year and this year they look well positioned to repeat as champions. They have won 6 of their last 7 and have Top 15 ratings in all of the models. If they win out they'll compete for a 3 seed given a much more competitive field this year.

The challengers group consists of teams that should be in the tournament. Arizona is favored the most out of the group by the EDM and WRI rankings. Colorado is favored by the SPM and MASPM due to a strong out of conference resume highlighted by their win against #3 Dayton. USC has the second best record in the conference but has a weaker WRI at 42 and EDM at 58.

The outsiders are solidly riding the bubble going into the conference tournament. Arizona State is probably the safest of these 3 despite their poor EDM. The SPM and MASPM show the strength of their schedule, both being Top 50. Stanford probably needs a win or two to move into a more comfortable position, having a weaker SPM at 56. UCLA has the weakest model rankings, but have had strong momentum to fight onto the bubble in recent weeks. They had won 7 in row until they recently lost to their rival USC this past weekend. UCLA vs Stanford (if Stanford wins) could be a play-in game.

Southeastern Conference

Last Year's Champion: Auburn

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Challengers

Outsiders

Kentucky comes into the SEC Conference as the regular season champion and the 1 seed. They come in with strong momentum and have won 9 of their last 10 games. They are ranked #8 in the AP poll and most models have them right outside the Top 10 at 11. Auburn has the same record, but comes in as the 2 seed trailing Kentucky by 3 games. They have Top 10 SPM and MASPM rankings indicating a strong schedule, but weaker WRI and EDM ratings. Kentucky is looking at a 3 seed while Auburn is a 4 or 5 seed.

The challengers in the league are LSU and Florida. Both teams appear to be on the right side of the bubble (8-10 seeds), with LSU having the more consistent ratings and the stronger record going into the tournament. Florida has weaker SPM and MASPM ratings in the 50s and they probably want at least a win to solidify their tournament status.

Mississippi State is on the wrong side of the bubble, but have teams like Florida and Kentucky as potential opponents in the tournaments to boost their resume. Arkansas and South Carolina have decent ratings all inside the Top 80, but will probably need to win out to get into the NCAA tournament.

Atlantic 10 Conference

Last Year's Champion: Saint Louis

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Challengers

Outsiders

Dayton was sensational during the regular season and was perfect throughout league play. This tournament is Dayton's to lose. Both of their losses came in overtime to Kansas and Colorado, so Dayton is not an easy team to overcome regardless of how much talent you have. Dayton is fighting for a 1 seed and should get one if they win out. And they should given their Top 10 rankings across the board.

Richmond isn't really a challenger, but they are hanging precariously on the bubble. They really need to make it to the final to make a case, but a win over Dayton would not only give them an automatic bid, but could vault them to a 9 or 10 seed.

Saint Louis and Rhode Island both put together 20 win seasons and are Top 100 teams which would typically make them at least challengers in the A-10, but this year isn't typical. Both need to win the tournament to make the NCAA tournament as 12 or 13 seeds, but the gulf between them and Dayton is really that big.

Big Sky Conference

Last Year's Champion: Montana

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Challengers

Outsiders

Eastern Washington and Northern Colorado are the top contenders for the Big Sky Conference. The models are divided on which team they like better. The SPM and MASPM prefer the number 1 seed Eastern Washington while the EDM and WRI prefer Northern Colorado. Eastern Washington did sweep the regular season series between the two, so they have an edge there.

For the challengers, we have last year's victor in Montana and Portland State. Both teams have solid Top 200 rankings across all models, although Montana has a narrow edge in all four models which suggests they are the stronger team.

There aren't really a lot of strong outsider candidates, but Southern Utah and Sacramento State are compelling as they have decently high EDM ratings with respect to their seeding and have competitive ratings around 200 with the other models. They have the potential to be dangerous teams if they end up facing the leaders in the quarterfinals. The top teams will be fighting for a 14 or 15 seed while the others will have to be content with a 16 seed.

Conference USA

Last Year's Champion: Old Dominion

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Challengers

Outsiders

Conference USA looks like a one-bid league this year and the two top contenders are Louisiana Tech and North Texas. Louisiana Tech has the favor of the models and has the better overall record, but North Texas does have the number one overall seed and was able to edge out Louisiana Tech and Western Kentucky by a game.

Western Kentucky isn't too far behind this group, having Top 100 ratings in all models except for the EDM which puts them at a competitive 112.

Outside the Top 3, there isn't a lot to separate the rest of the league. All of the outsider teams have a record above .500 and model rankings all in the Top 200, so don't be surprised if one or two of these teams upsets one of the teams in the Top 3. Expect the winning team to fall in the 12-14 seed range.

Southland Conference

Last Year's Champion: Abilene Christian

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Outsiders

Stephen F. Austin made headlines earlier in the season when they upset #1 Duke at the time. They are the overwhelming favorites in the Southland Conference and should win this tournament. There was talk about Stephen F. Austin getting a potential at-large bid, but that looks like a long shot, so they will have plenty of incentive to win this tournament to grab that automatic bid.

Nicholls State and Abilene Christian look to be the main challengers. They have solid ratings in all models except for the WRI where they are ranked 225 and 242 respectively. Unfortunately neither team was able to beat Stephen F. Austin during the season.

Sam Houston State comes in at the 4 seed. They have a okay record, but it is against mediocre competition, which is reflected in their rankings which are all sub-200. If Stephen F. Austin wins they will be a dangerous 12 seed. If anyone else wins, they most likely be slipped in at the 15 or 16 seed.