Part 5/11:
The Myth of Certainty and Risk Management
Despite the optimism, the speaker emphasizes uncertainty remains. There is always a chance, estimated at around 30%, that prices could go 50-60% lower—especially if manipulated leverage or external shocks occur. However, the prevailing odds favor a recovery comparable to past crises like COVID, suggesting that the dip is primarily a reset rather than a top.
Participants are cautioned to avoid reckless selling, as liquidations and panic have already driven prices to levels that, historically, have preceded substantial gains. The sentiment warns against purging holdings or attempting to time the absolute bottom—those tactics have historically resulted in missed profits or severe losses.