Crypto market has not change AT ALL - Bitcoin falling wedge Ethereum to ATH

Always take in consideration non of this information is financial advice or official announcement from any specific project, I’m no financial advisor, trader or expert, this is just my personal opinion on certain project mention on this article, cryptocurrencies are extreme high risk assets and you must do you own research, never follow what I or other people say on internet

Crypto market has not change AT ALL - Bitcoin falling wedge Ethereum to ATH

Its been a few days since I made a post but have been busy trading and with some IRL stuff, if you follow me at Twitter @cryptoxicate or Dbuzz @rombtc you can see some of my positions and some of my analysis.

Nothing against Institutions or Banks because I LOVE THE DOLLAR but those who have been on this market for a short period need to know this kind of things for their own good, I really don't care if ppl become millionaire good for them but its all the pumpers out there putting content everyday misguiding ppl that end up buying ATH and holding to eventually sell at a lost most of the time.

People are blind and putting too much faith in "Institutions and Banks" buying Bitcoin, we humans forget so fast that this are the same Banks and Institutions that have created and been bail out on most financial crisis that have ever existed and that's the reason Bitcoin was create to eliminate the middle man so nobody only you have custody of your assets your crypto currencies.

Bitcoin

But Sir Sir Institutions are buying....

Lets get real

Bitcoin Daily Chart

I'm not going to come here and tell you I call the top because I don't call tops or bottoms but I pay attention to what has happen in the past and take my chances after reviewing previous behaviour and price action, people often say Technical Analysis and Fundamental Analysis doesn't work with crypto, sad for you but it does work. (I was out of Bitcoin since $30k was the last time I sold and after that didn't buy neither).

1- When it feels it's too easy to make money then something is wrong

Thats how it felt since November 2020 when the price of Bitcoin started to accelerate real fast after nothing have change, no significant advance, no significant adoption, Bitcoin is still a way to generate wealth.

2- People buying at those levels, already ALL TIME HIGH saying they are buying for the ""LONG TERM""

Cmon you are buying all time highs for LONG TERM, this was a signal FOMO and Retail were DEEP into Bitcoin and was about to pop

3- Bitcoin, January 04 first drop over -15%

This drop got bought real quick, this drops usually are signals, dropping 15% at $35k is not an easy thing to do, this is a cascade effect coming from big money taking profits but "Institutions" were buying right? meh

4- MACD daily cross after a parabolic move

People sometimes underestimate the simple things like a lagging oscillator but as we can see on the daily chart same thing happen on 2018, in January, after ALL TIME HIGH, after the price felt overextended.

5- Institutions buy OTC and retail pumps the price

Why is this? because they get discounts and better deals buying out of the exchanges, buying directly from miners large amounts at a fix price instead for the miner to go into the exchange dump their coins and bring down the price so this large purchase doesn't feed the price is just retail and traders who FOMO into the asset and pump the price.

Assets don't HAVE to do anything, there for BITCOIN doesn't HAVE to go up because institutions are buying.

Bitcoin Daily Chart Micro

Right now Bitcoin has been very lucrative to go short every time it hits the top part of the descending wedge, I was able to catch the third touch at $38k but now its in a no trade zone either futures or on spot, since the drop from $42k Bitcoin has not given any signals of bullish price action, it has played out the Fib retracement very well so far and the golden pocket at the 0.618 would put Bitcoin between $24k - $22k this IMO would motivate algos and traders to jump in but now there is no strength based on how the price has behaved. Right now I think there are either two patterns playing out, both dangerous for the price, either a descending wedge that is usually bullish but could be a double edge knife because if it breaks the bottom part it will create panic and that's when retail start selling or worst if it's a descending triangle testing $29k multiple times to then break down.

Is there a bullish case for Bitcoin now? Yes and the reason is to drop hard to shake out people, IMO $29k wont create panic, the price already visit three times that range this month so that wont create panic, now I think the best thing that can happen to the price of Bitcoin is to drop to $24k zone and then start going up, $24k IS STILL OVER $20K 2018 ATH.

But again the price of Bitcoin doesn't HAVE TO DO ANYTHING, it could shoot up to new ATH but is very unlikely on the short-term, long-term still BULLISH

Bitcoin dominance

Now that Bitcoin hype is fading away temporarily, we have seen altcoins going up like Chainlink, Ethereum, Celsius Network, Uniswap all this projects I have talked about for months, we can see how Bitcoin dominance drop dramatically and braking that uptrend, same uptrend has become resistance and while the 50 and 20 EMA have cross bearish for the first time since June 2020 the last time we had this event, coincidence that was the DEFI explosion and many altcoins moon so hard so now Bitcoin dominnace has to revert and it doesn't look like doing it anytime soon for now.

Ethreum BITCOIN Weekly Chart

Ppl are sleeping on Ethereum because of its USD price and I think this is because most altcoins just drop on their BTC value FOR EVER with few exceptions and Ethereum been the father of ERC-20 the network with the most tokens in the market keeps recovering on BTC value, recently broke out hard the prev resistance with a potential cup and handle patter to now retest back what was resistance.

Right now Ethereum BTC chart looks very bullish, do I think it will go to all time highs on BTC value, it can but I think its a bit hard at the moment and with its listing at CME futures most likely is going to dump but I can go to all time highs before it gets listed since most of the time an asset hits a significant futures exchange it just drops. Ethereum has other advantages that can catapult the price higher for example staking, ETH EIP 1559 both will take Ethereum out of circulation in the meantime its mainstream game becomes stronger. Take in consideration that it also depends on Bitcoin price, if Bitcoin doesn't die in the next three weeks meaning go sub $29k we can see Ethereum skyrocket before it gets listed on CME.

https://hackmd.io/@timbeiko/1559-updates/https%3A%2F%2Fhackmd.io%2F%40timbeiko%2F1559-update-006

Ethereum Accumulation

This chart shows how more and more Ethereum is going out of exchanges for multiple reasons between them accumulation and staking, I have been trying to do the opposite of what I did when I had the chance to accumulate Bitcoin years ago under $3k, Ethereum right now is only $1k that could easily shoot up to $5k on this bull market that IMO still not done yet, whats going right now is just a bump in the road but its clear many traders and investors are accumulating Ethereum.

I do this type of articules mainly to document and express my thoughts on the market so it helps other avoid making the same mistakes I do and improve my own Technical Analysis.

Stay safe

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