I've been in this gig for a while, and have been watching the cycles you describe, as well. As time goes by the thing that comes to my mind is the question of whether or not these (allegedly) BTC inspired/driven cycles will continue to hold true as BTC dominance gradually decreases. When we started tracking the halving trends, BTC had 95% dominance; today it is in the 40-something percent range.
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Absolutely. That's why I'm saying that even if it is a BTC inspired cycle, the psychology now that comes with it self-reinforces it to a degree. So maybe the cycle will smooth out a bit over time, but I still think it is very much in play for THIS cycle.