February 28th 2024 - Up Bitcoin, Down Hive

As the price of Bitcoin, fuelled by insatiable appetite of recently approved ETFs in USA, appears unstoppable in its reconquest of 2021 ATH, most of the cryptosphere appears happy, almost to the point of euphoria, feeling that the next crypto bull run and previously unimaginable profits are just around the corner. There is, however, one segment of cryptosphere that appears to be much more subdued in expressing joy over latest Bitcoin price action, and, instead, express sorrow, disappointment and even anger.

Those are, of course, holder of HIVE. While price Bitcoin is approaching stratosphere, price HIVE not only stays the same, but is actually significantly lower than it was a year ago, in a time when the future of Bitcoin looked much less certain than it looks now. Whenever price of Bitcoin goes up, price of HIVE takes expectedly downward turn, like it is anchored to the levels of 0.30 US$ or less. If current trend continues, HIVE will struggle to have its price in triple digit number of sats.

In this situation, when HIVE looks like it loses much of its worth, it is quite understandable why so many of HIVE enthusiasts feel disappointed and even willing to abandon their favourite blockchain for the sake of something that at least looks healthier and more profitable. And, like in many such situations, those who remain channel their frustration into finding convenient scapegoats, mainly witnesses and projects that apparently failed to deliver their promises upon receiving votes. Such displeasure haven’t been seen since 2020 and split from the Steeem blockchain, with some even drawing parallels with what had happened four years ago.

While there is certainly many things within Hive ecocystem could and should be improved, HIVE is still at the mercy of forces beyond its users’ control. If HIVE is indeed as strong, innovative and superior to other blockchains as some of its most enthusiastic supporters claim, then the whole business of crypto market cycles should matter very little. HIVE would rise and fall based on its own merit, regardless whether Bitcoin or any other major cryptocurrency goes up or down.

Sadly, this is still not the case. There is still a very limited user base and still relatively small market cap which allows all kinds of manipulations. Furthermore, HIVE still haven’t evolved out of the shadow of other crypto projects nor its users have proved different than the rest of cryptosphere when it comes to market sentiments. In short, HIVE holders still treat their assets as a tool for getting rich quick and, as such, their behaviour predictably follows Bitcoin-dictated broader market trends. In other words, when Bitcoin goes up, HIVE goes down, because HIVE holders sell in order to join FOMO orgy. When Bitcoin goes down, HIVE goes down, because HIVE holders are still convinced that another crypto catastrophe is around corner, so they panic sell.

Ironically, based on previous experiences, only period when Bitcoin appears to be crab walking and maintains relatively steady stablecoin-like price, HIVE has a chance to recover and bring something like a smile to their holders’ faces. But, judging by the way newest ETF-fuelled rally creates new batch of market lunacy, Hivers would have to wait at least until Bitcoin halving before situation becomes clearer and more stable.

(image source:coingecko.com)

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