I'm seeing... red!
Stock market got a bit wrecked today, took Bitcoin with it as per usual. Until we get back to the doubling curve at $35k this will continue to happen pretty consistently. That being said we are only a 7% drop away from that level at this point, which really is nothing in terms of crypto movements.
My gut feeling says we are hovering into incredibly bearish territory. The only solace is that my gut feeling is wrong like 80% of the time and betting against it is always a good bet on the average. Still, that leaves another 20% chance that we just continue to get wrecked as we head into the summer, despite a pattern of 18 months between bull runs. If you get dealt pocket AA in poker and you lose, you didn't do anything wrong, you just got unlucky. That's just how gambling works. Plan accordingly and never bet the farm on a single outcome.
At this point the FED really has their hand on the lever of recession. Inverted bond yields are also a terrible omen. Increasing interest rates to "mitigate inflation" seems like a really terrible idea, but they just keep signaling higher and higher rates.
For me it's comical that people call this "inflation". The prices are going up, so that's automatically "inflation"... right? But the prices are going up because the supply lines are jacked. This is literally deflation of goods and it's being spun as inflation and an increased money supply which is somehow magically going to be fixed with increased interest rates. This kind of magical thinking can only lead one place eventually: recession.
To be fair we've been on borrowed time and due for a recession for years. It's been 14 years since 2008; quite a long time indeed. Many people have been talking about the "everything bubble" for quite some time. An economy with crippled supply lines is the perfect catalyst for such an event.
I find myself in pretty awkward positioning for all of this. Truly very few people are mentally prepared for another crypto winter, and even less are financially prepared.
The actions of the FED lead me to believe that despite all the "inflation" and "printer go brrr" memes... we are actually heading into a period where the dollar is legitimately strong and many entities worldwide owe the debts back via USD, which only makes it stronger. This is all a very weird combination and sequence of variables. Time will tell how accurate this prediction becomes.
Bitcoin still king.
Bitcoin has something that stocks don't have: an entire alt-market that is known to retreat back into Bitcoin when shit really hits the fan. I guarantee if a recession occurs everything will flash crash, but it's very possible many assets will not recover as the alt-market gets used to prop up Bitcoin just like we saw in 2018/2019. Again, dominance levels can and will go back up to 60% if the entire economy goes down the crapper. And maybe that's a good thing.
With so much adoption and development going on, crypto has already proven that it's here to stay. That doesn't mean it won't take a year or two in order to recover from such things, but as we all know: bear markets are great for building. A recession at this stage of the game could actually be the best thing that ever happened to the cryptosphere as a whole in the long-term.
Conclusion
These things take time, so hopefully this alarmism comes a bit early. That being said, I really have no faith in the world economy as a whole over the next year or two. All the variables are adding up to a situation most dire. Longing the market at this juncture should be the last thing on anyone's mind.
Maintain balanced positions that are acceptable no matter what happens. Be ready to buy the dip, because a COVID-level flash-crash could take BTC down to $20k for the last time ever. That kind of panic is easy to capitalize on. Keep a level head during periods of massive volatility and you'll find you do quite well on the trading field.
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The strong dollar point you made was interesting for me. Living Bi-costal, Japan/US I keep an eye on yen/dollar rates. What is happening now has me scratching my head, the yen is at a 20 year low against the dollar. Both countries have had the printing press going since COVID so I am wondering what else could be causing the deflation of the yen, traditionally a safe haven.
For one thing the Ukraine/Russia BS has accelerated inflation in Japan. Our energy bills, electricity & gas have doubled in the past 2 months. This is absolutely painful for us. On top of that food prices have jumped 20% almost across the board. So I think Japan being an importer of too many goods could be the driving factor hurting their currency. Or is it the NWO purposely tanking it because Japan is not 100% on board with open borders and other aspects of the NWO?
What I do know is the multi-millionaires I work for are pissed and very worried. One of them laid off 200 employees at his mortgage firm the other week. He is furious at the state of things. Another one whose home we are working on had us wait a week for our next draw, something he hasn't done in 4 months of work. When those types of people start complaining and take longer to pay you, you know the shitstorm is coming. I am on the front lines of feeling the recession, it's here, prepare accordingly.
Whats the most painful thing that could happen for people now in crypto? it goes down and wrecks 80/90 percent of peoples portfolios or it takes off and leaves 20 percent of people still not in or not enough vested in the dust. We going down with tech stocks because things are going to bite hard and most likely recession and major hard times. Its also May and those with money that have been propping this shit show up are going on holiday for summer.
Not sure people are really seeing where the world is right now. We are in the stages of collapse and war. Im not sure anyone will be able to believe what kind of shit has gone down in 5 years.
Especially when we look at statements like "you will own nothing and you'll be happy.
Clearly some unbelievably fucked up shit would have to happen.
yeah thats had me thinking a lot about as well. Kinda like when i heard David Icke talk about digital currency. Kinda fascinated me. Iv come to the conclusion he's referring to the Metaverse or something like that. Most stuff will be virtual at that point, people will be mainly buying virtual trainers and other NFTs. Virtual lambos, Justin sun cruising around in a 40 million pound gold lambo NFT and people building virtual property empires and advertising empires. That along with even nerds banging 5 virtual birds a night and socialising in ways not seen before, everyone might be happy as a pig in shit. Sat in a dark room with nothing in it except pizza and water.
A virtual world cuts down on deadly disease transmission and also green house gases. The stress on the planet hugely reduced in every which way possible.
I don't believe in coincidences.
That’s fine. This just gives us more time to keep building and growing our stacks.
What are you betting? :D
Btc down
$->BTC (Wait)->ALT (wait) -> Next alt -> $
I think in summer it will be more clear what the next 12 months will happen. For now is everything random because of BRRRRRRRRRR and war and other retarded shit.
Load up de coin if nobody wants them in massive scale! thats da plan!
No worries either way. After the bears, comes the bulls. I don't have plans to go vacationing in the Bahamas anytime soon anyways...lol
Keep a level head during periods of massive volatility and you'll find you do quite well on the trading field. — top notch advice for ardent crypto investors, know this and know peace.
I am actually worried for the stock market a bit because nobody will blink if it drops to like 10% but the FAANG companies are fine. However, when things hit the fan like they do now and the FAANG stocks no longer look so gear, everyone is scared. I have a bunch of videos in my Youtube feed about people wanting to sell out and it's pretty crazy. Either way, I think BTC will be fine but the fiat value might tank while the bear markets happen.
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I think much of it is down to the transition that is going to take place, into the meta verse basically. Nobody knows how it is going to play out and where the winners and losers will be. Facebook was a screaming buy after the crash it had.
I have noticed you haven't used your favorite Bitcoin annual cycle pie chart. Maybe time to retire it?
I am somewhat surprised that we probably won't have a summer rally; something that I have been arguing for for over a year now. We can still go down to ~29k and have a rally though
The cycle chart is fine. Summer and Winter are earning seasons. There are many circumstances that make it not apply... like billionaires moving in manipulating the market and a global pandemic and a recession when crypto has never performed during a recession. The cycle chart applies much more heavily when the other variables are dormant. Doesn't change that fact that Summer is still earning season and it's very possible the market has tried to foolishly price in a recession right before an earning season.
I really feel so bad for this dump. Ethereum already hit my stop loss. And Doge is at the edge of hitting too. To the moon to the moon!! Cannot even take off from driveway since last year.
If stock market correlate with Bitcoin, if means the economy affect bitcoin which means this coin is not decentralized.
Except if am missing a point.
Keep accumulate Hive whether its bear or bull :))
Ok thanks for this advice friend @hiro-hive
That be awesome. If Btc goes down to 20k, I sell some of my silver. And use it to buy 0.01 Bitcoin !
I really appreciate this because experiencing inflation and deflation of price is definitely a win-win scenario. Thanks for sharing.
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STOPCheck out the last post from @hivebuzz:
I pray your 20% gut comes true. Waiting since a long time for the opportunity, god knows when 😁
I don't know what to feel seeing the market but reading this kind of given me that so-called glimmer of hope to have another chance at BTC if it dumps to 20k hehe.
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I often get discouraged to see how little understanding there is and how any serious price jump is automatically associated with inflation. And if you treat a patient for the wrong illness, maybe he doesn't die, but he will get worse.