I see a lot of people talking about the need to wait till the next halving event before we get another bull market. This might be true, but if so it's correct for the wrong reasons. The halving event is highly irrelevant at this point.
Miners no longer control the price.
Used to be that miners unilaterally controlled the price (this is why many assume that they still do). If the price of energy went up, Bitcoin would crash. If the price of Bitcoin went down, more needed to be sold in order to pay the energy bills. We saw many death-spiral situations and fears that never actually happened in reality, but the theory still stands.
Halving:
- 50 BTC per block.
- 25 BTC per block.
- 12.5
- 6.25
Half
This is prix fixe
Well what's one point?
The reduction from 6.25 block reward to 3.125 is extremely meaningless in the grand scheme of things, but everywhere I look people are viewing this event (that happens in two years) as if it's the savoir of crypto. Wut? No. Miners aren't in control anymore.
The circulating supply of Bitcoin is 19.1M coins right now. Even if we printed all 21M today that would only be a 10% increase. It's been in that near-19M range for a long long time. Inflation is irrelevant, no matter what the maximalists are saying. Most recently, the inflation of Bitcoin has dipped lower than that of the fiat targets. People make a big deal out of this... why? The asset itself is going x2 every year. A few points of inflation is totally meaningless compared to that.
First year after the next halving.
Alright, lets game theory it out just for fun. Halving in May 2024. Reduction from 6.25 to 3.125 block reward. How many coins does that save in the first year from being minted?
- 6 blocks per hour
- 144 blocks per day
- 52,560 blocks per year.
- 164,250 less BTC will be printed from May 2024-2025.
LOL... who cares?
Less than 200k coins? So completely irrelevant. Look at how controls the market now. The institutions are in control; the big money. We really think $3 billion dollars worth of Bitcoin in 2025 is going to make a difference? Please. Such asinine desperate logic (omg number go up please). It's a drop in the bucket. $3B saved is a nothing number.
Halving is a bearish event.
And this is another thing that everyone forgets. The halving is BAD. 100% of all BTC inflation is allocated to security. This is what makes it a store of security. Cutting that in half all at once on the same day creates extreme instability for no reason. We really think it's a good idea to cut the money allocated to SECURITY by half on some random day and hope for the best (even celebrate it)? That's such greedy monkey logic.
Bitcoin is never more vulnerable that it is during a halving event. This should be obvious to everyone with half a brain cell. You take away half of the money being allocated to security... then your security is going to be half as effective... on a pre-determined day that everyone knows about in advance. Does that really sound like a smart play? But again, the greedy apes celebrate it like it's the best thing ever. Mindblowing really.
Conclusion
Yeah, we might have to wait another 2 years before a bull market. That has absolutely nothing to do with a halving event and everything to do with the recession we find ourselves in. Coming to conclusions like: "the halving is going to save us" is such dangerous logic. What if the timelines coincidentally add up? Then the assumption carries on to the next halving after that in 2028, where it definitely isn't going to matter at all. Bad data leads to bad conclusions.
Inflation rate doesn't matter. Inflation itself (and the proper allocation of it) is the killer dapp. The fact that Bitcoin has very little inflation doesn't make it superior, it makes it secure and boring with very little risk over long periods of time. It also makes the price extremely volatile and unstable due to having zero elasticity.
Those are put their hopes into the halving event like it's the ultimate bullish thing are going to be hugely disappointed. If not in 2024, then definitely 2028 guaranteed. These aren't the developments that matter. We need to keep developing real solutions, not create volatile supply shocks that are completely unhelpful to an economy that craves stability and dependability.
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I can't help but to think of the 4 year cycle that some attribute to the halving, but on of the cycles have been all down or all up. I can't say we've hit the bottom, but there is a realistic chance for some recovery along the way and ups and downs. I don't think btc has seen it's all time high, but it could take some time to recover in this economy.. Doesn't mean we can't see $40k. I just don't know what to expect right now, but if we see any major fiat currencies fail, we know that people tend to turn to btc during those times.
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Don't expect anything and you will never be disappointed.
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Nobody can predict that. Remember when it seemed relatively stable - then Covid made its debut?
I remember
we are basically already almost in the next bull market; probably one more leg down. In 2 years it is more likely that the bear will start again
lol so true.
Everyone still has PTSD from the last crypto winter in 2018/2019.
This one isn't going to be two years long.
Everyone always thinks they have to wait too more years after shit hits the fan.
I believe the problem arise from the approach to the halving case. In fiat monetary system, there is no other party to confirm the transactions but for the central banks. Yet, in blockchain, you do not reward the miners; you actually pay a tax to them as a thank for securing their digital assets on a chain.
IF the transaction fees paid to miners cannot compensate for the halving, then there is a serious concern! In the ideal scenario, BTC always goes up while the emission rate is going down. What if we add some other parameters such as global concerns and more attractive cryptocurrencies to flow the liquidity on? Then, the game becomes interesting...
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Luckily Bitcoin is in a very unique position and I don't think the potential loss in security will actually be an issue because it was first to market and has a community entrenched within the infrastructure already.
I like when analysis comes from a common sense point of view.
I really do mot know the technicalities of the halving and the effect it has on the price but all I know is BTC seems to be a valid investment and so I occasionally dump some money consistently in it.
But your logic of halving totally makes sense, halving might cost efficiency in the long term.
Hard to argue with this logic and I'm kinda on the same page here. I remember waiting for the 2020 halving thinking it will solve the price and it didn't. The bull came months later and people still attributed it to the halving.
I feel like people in general miss the obvious catalysts for uptrends and downtrends (like a recession or a money printing event) and then they just make up a narrative that makes the most sense for them.
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deepsigh expect the worst , hope for the best . In the past 13 years, there have been three 'halvings' and each time the price of Bitcoin has dramatically risen temporarily before decreasing to a new more stable level. This might be a reason why some peeps feel the next halving of btc will herald a bull run !
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You maybe right with the decreasing importance of BTC halving. Didn’t see it like this before.
It's actually good to prepare for the unforeseen circumstances if you expect less then when it's rains it's will be a plus to the investors
This is a good point. But if the experts are celebrating it, most will follow. That alone could help, at least if there are few if any articles like this one 🤣
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yeah the perception is reality effect is something I forgot to mention in this one.
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One needs to differentiate the difference between a bullish phase and a new bull market. A bull market is indicative of creating new all time highs. Even $50K in 2 months time would mean nothing apart from a bullish phase.
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