The Final Death-Cross

in LeoFinance2 years ago

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HIVE HAS DONE IT!

All of the moving averages for Hive are in order from from highest to lowest:
  • MA(200) == $1.13
  • MA(100) == $0.965
  • MA(50) == $0.963
  • MA(25) == $0.90

WOOF!

We can no longer death-cross in terms of these four key moving averages. It's unclear if this is bullish or bearish in the short term. Normally when put in a position like this we would expect to scrape the bottom for a couple weeks or even months before moving back up. Sometimes a consolidation is necessary.

We can see that support around 80 cents is once again holding up, which is nice to see, but in my opinion the real support is somewhere around 50 cents, which is where we are almost guaranteed to be if a recession strikes the economy. Other than that our bottom-of-the-barrel crypto-winter support is still somewhere around 10-20 cents, with 10 cents being fully uncrackable as always. I've already made a ton of money going all in around that range multiple times, and I would do so again if the opportunity arises. Hive is my main token for sure.

But I don't think it would come to that.

Hive has made some pretty impressive fundamental gains, and I have a bit of faith in this 80 cent support, and even moreso in the range down to 50 cents. I think a lot of bulls have learned their lesson with Hive and they hedge a bit better these days with Bitcoin & fiat in order to buy the dips. One can hope anyway.

polycublogo.png

Polycub at 14.7 cents.

Remember all that shit talking I was doing about Polycub? Remember how I said I'd love to be proved wrong about my decision to sell at $0.80-$1.20. Ah well, here comes that bittersweet moment where I get to say I told you so.

However, at a market cap of $800k, significantly below even $1M, this is actually fully in my buying range for polycub. If my other bags weren't getting so wrecked I would have already started DCA buying by now. Meh I'll scrape some money up together eventually here and try to prop up this low low price with the other bulls.

CUB itself has gotten super wrecked as well at a $1.4M MC, but then again the entire market is getting totally bitch slapped so I guess there are no surprises there. LEO obviously not looking pretty as well. Combined CUB and pCUB has a MC of $2.2M, which is insanely low. Considering how diehard the bulls are around here it's actually hard to imagine it going much lower... because if it does the degens can prop it back up with very little outside money coming in.

Thus I've moved all my tokens out of the kingdom and into the LPs. I'm fully willing to by the dip by algorithm if CUB somehow falls lower than this. LPs will automatically buy for me, and I can still get the 90% APY on yield. I know how people hate to be told to buy the dip after they just got wrecked but... meh... CUB/BUSD LP still looking pretty awesome at these levels. I like having that BUSD around just in case and it earns 90% APY... hard to complain.

Speaking of stable-coin APY...

The pHBD/USDC pair on Polycub has been doing surprisingly well. The peg keeps breaking to the upside because it has so much demand. Pretty good sign, but it may be short lived as the halving event for Polycub approaches. We'll see how it works out.

That being said, pHBD/USDC has crazy high demand and volume. It's very obvious that this pair was a really smart move. At these levels, 7% APR gets generated JUST FROM EXCHANGE FEES. When we consider that exchange fees are crazy low like 0.2%, that means that volume is so high that if we had an entire year of volume this high the yearly volume would be x35 times larger than the ENTIRE MARKET CAP of the LP. LOL... that's insane. Clearly users on Hive really enjoy having this connection to USDC and the Polygon ecosystem. Nice work.

The LP is also generating a nice income for the Vault (POL: protocol owned liquidity). In theory, assets in the vault will just keep getting larger and larger, and the yield generated from the assets will sustain the entire network... forever. That's the theory anyway. Still, within the context of the pHBD/USDC pair so far is working out surprisingly well despite the predicted dwindling market cap of polycub.

Changes coming to Polycub

pHIVE is right around the corner. It will be paired to Polycub itself instead of to some other random asset. This should drive value to both platforms. Don't quote me on this but I think some of the kingdoms are going to get scrapped and paired to polycub as well. In my opinion this is going to be a great move, as more liquidity for polycub itself is desperately needed at this point.

There's also bonding and the loan system to look forward to.

It's possible that bonding adds short-term downward pressure to the system if users have to sell polycub to get LP tokens to bond, but at the same time this is a huge long term development along with the loan system.

The loan system also allows derivatives to come into play.

The hardest thing about crypto loans is how collateral is liquidated to cover bad debt. Khal has a pretty good plan for this, and once it's implemented for Vault loans, it can basically be copy/pasted to allow derivative assets to be minted on the platform (like a stablecoin collateralized by xpolycub). That would be a MASSIVE development.

scarcityrare diamond.jpg

At the end of the day it all takes patience, trust, and a willingness to bleed while we use our diamond hands to hold through the bad times. I'm personally very hopeful that Bitcoin will perform well during a recession and this will give us a huge opportunity to buy back into alts at a discount down the road. One can hope anyway. Stay frosty.

Summer gambit

Personally I'm still holding out a lot of hope that summer earning season will prop up the market a bit (or a lot). I really don't want to think about hedging further before June, but it's hard when so much crazy stuff is going on in the world. Then again we are seeing a tiny bounce today, so perhaps there is some hope in the short term after all. Just remember how easy it is to ping pong around and get greedy or fearful at the worst possible times. I know from experience: STICK TO THE PLAN, DAMMIT!

HBD Haircut

Many people on Hive are worried about buying HBD because they think the peg will break like it has before when the haircut gets activated. I actually did the math yesterday and calculated that, at these levels, the HBD haircut will not come into play unless Hive price crashes all the way to 25 cents. And let's be honest, if Hive crashes that far that fast, are you really not buying the dip with the HBD hedge? This number also assumes that no HBD was converted into Hive during that crash, which also seems highly unlikely. The actual number could be more like 20 cent Hive until haircut. At this point that shouldn't be a concern to anyone.

Also Blocktrades and the other witnesses have already signaled that the haircut percentage will be raised multiples higher. I think something like 30% was talked about, which is x3 higher than it is now. With a 20% yield on the savings account, HBD has never been a more viable option for storing value on this network. The 20% yield alone makes it perform better than the vast majority of stocks out there. Pretty wild honestly. Definitely consider loading up, because anyone who holds Hive's debt is not only hedging their own stack, but is also propping up the value of Hive itself.

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Conclusion

Many coins have bounced off support. Bitcoin & BNB & Hive all bounced off of the most obvious support lines today. Unfortunately the more that happens the weaker that support line gets, but it will be nice to take the small victory today.

Hive has death-crossed it's final death-cross. Impossible for that to happen again without a golden-cross. Hopefully the consolidation phase will be short lived and we can see some action for once instead of constantly trading in range.

I hate to say this over and over, but honestly the best way for this community to conserve its value is by implementing extreme hedges. HBD and BTC are hugely viable options for value conservation. We'll talk more if BTC crashes to $35k or below. Until then try not to get wrecked; easier said than done.

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My soled focus is getting back on track and building my HBD too,I sincerely see the HBD as a way out in coming days

The charting unspoken rule is clear: either the price touches the averages or the averages touch the price, one has to give eventually

I can't see Hive going down further, so I would expect the price to stay around here and the averages to be pulled down and touch the price. Would like to see the opposite, the price going up to the averages, but the sell pressure is there....

Hive under $0.80 for me is always a reserved buy in now at least from earnings. I have a feeling Hive has a better chance at pushing to $1 (but in reality it only needs to hit about $0.90 in that year to counteract the 20% APR on HBD. I feel there's more I can do with Hive over HBD as well.

I gotta say I'm not happy about any of the CUBs right now. There's been talks and promises of grand things for over a year now and it just keeps tanking. The team needs to seriously come up with some good ways of restoring value to LEO, CUB and PolyCub here soon.

I'm also a little iffy on Hive being added into DeFi. Not that I don't want it to be but Hive for some reason feels like that token that had value because it was so damn hard to get it liquid and once it was it was difficult to really do anything with it. With it being added to Polygon and later Binance it opens it up to some serious trading and liquidity that was never there before and I'm very unsure if that's going to tank the price or skyrocket it. My feeling is almost that it will be a exit point to buy Polygon and Binance over trying to get more Hive as those cryptos to the masses looks beautiful and many people are cashing out on hive treating it like a ATM. It's going to be interesting to see how it all plays out.

pHIVE is right around the corner. It will be paired to Polycub itself instead of to some other random asset.

This "P" is becoming more of a thing everyday, I'd say someone who took a month break from the chain might think they're in another blockchain, with the way it's going. I like the challenge and the fact that there's something new to expect almost every time.

I have been surprised by Hive, by all means we're doing well.

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Haha the last part though... Easier said than done indeed 😅

I really can't start writing how much I've learned from just this post of yours... I've recently started to explore this community and I realise from every post I read that I've been missing out big time.

But it's never too late, I'm here to learn and these terms in this "Not too long post" 😆 will be easier for me to teach others about.

By the way, my thoughts about Hive and it's price is the same anytime and in whatever situation... Buy the dip and hodl 😅 easier said than done

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Last time I remember reading in the news about death cross in the stock markets it did not take less than a month and stocks soar. I don't know if I trust those death crosses. !LOL

Why was the banana denied bail?
Every judge knows bananas splits.

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(1/6)

It's a very fickle metric.
Then again a metric only has to work 60% of the time to make money on average.
A 40% fail-rate is a professional fail rate when it comes to day trading.

The LP is also generating a nice income for the Vault (POL: protocol owned liquidity). In theory, assets in the vault will just keep getting larger and larger, and the yield generated from the assets will sustain the entire network... forever. That's the theory anyway.

Will this theory ever be proven?

When will we be able to see prices and POL required to reach an equilibrium?

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"When will we be able to see prices and POL required to reach an equilibrium?"

A mission-critical point I have made several attempts at touching on in Discord, AMAs, etc. Specifically, I have asked about when we would have an "executive summary dashboard" which displays PolyCub's POL and RFV.

The resulting response?

Well ... What would be your first guess? 😉🤷‍♂️

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Sauce. Some things are time sensitive. Hope this article didn't go over people's heads. I would take advantage of the 20% because the market is unpredictable and we are early.

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The death Cross in Hive,is happening as a results of the bearish trend, stock and Crypto currency are facing. I hope it will not affect Hive much because of the new improvement that's happening in Hive ecosystem.

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LEO is dumping too... (

I have no idea about the terms but okay... I think it's interesting and makes people look into learning abt trading some more.

Hive is moving in a progressive state and am excited to witness the platform achieve more success for a better and brighter future.

I totally agree with cub and polycub drama. I didn't see anything forthcoming for cub and sold off all my earnings and it saved me a lot.

Well, I always buy the dip for hive, BYC and cake..

So yeah.. I can range hive steadily from 0.8$ to 1$ every single time.

I don't think with a bad recession, hive will ever go to 10cents or 29cents

HBD Haircut

Many Hivians forget, that there was already a price feed manipulation on steem. Price was on exchanges 10 cent and the internal price was 17 cent to 20 cent. And not for a day, for weeks.

That's another way to "haircut". i remember the inflation talk on trending page and all this drama.

That being said, pHBD/USDC has crazy high demand and volume. It's very obvious that this pair was a really smart move. At these levels, 7% APR gets generated JUST FROM EXCHANGE FEES. When we consider that exchange fees are crazy low like 0.2%, that means that volume is so high that if we had an entire year of volume this high the yearly volume would be x35 times larger than the ENTIRE MARKET CAP of the LP.

I think pHBD-USDC is really a good deal and taking advantage of the opportunities while it's still available is very important.

Like you said that this high APR might be affected by the halving process, it means the earlier the better.

Thanks for this revelation and for the general thoughts on your post, it's worthwhile reading. I've always admired reading contents from this end.

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Been focusing more on building my HBD stack too, along with the HP and LEO one; 20% and compounding are a sure win!

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I would like to just add that after reading this I'm still very confused. It's me and my noob mind.

One thing I think I understand is, have liquid tokens in case there is a dip. To buy buy buy.

I think there is demand for pHBD but there isn't many people unwrapping pHBD right? It makes me wonder where the HBD is going if it's being traded so much.

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Holy fuck, #CUB looks like shit though.

I wasn't aware it dipped so much.

A good time to buy?

I have been playing in the 0.77 and 0.80 range and have pulled in a few dollars, but the EMA's that I have marked indicate to me that the price may go down further, perhaps to 0.60 cents, but I am hopeful that it will return to the $1.00 range.

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HIVE is technically very bullish, I don't use much indicator though, price action says bullish Hive , about which I have made a post today. I think hivers who are withdrawing may think about this zone as it is a key level for buyers. A big upside rally can be seen in the HIVEUSDT or other hive pairs in the coming days.

Apart from that crypto market is booming. So crypto traders and investors gotta sit back tightly. "Miles to go before we sleep"

why is it very bullish? if it's has an unlimited quantity?

buyers are heavy compared to sellers, that is called bullishness, brother. and if you are a trader, you must have to be bullish or bearish, trading is a battle game of bear and bull, because, wherever you trade, you have to buy/sell a currency or coin while at the same time you wil be doing opposite activity there, suppose, if you buy HIVEUSDT, at the same time you have sold USDTHIVE. and you become sellers and buyers in those coins.
In this zone in the HIVEUSDT chart, buyers has stepped into the market before and has taken control. You can visit my latest post where I describe the price action with mutiple timeframe perspective.

hope it clarifies your doubt, otherwise you can contact me on discord,
my dis. id is @tradersaan#2354

tell me what's the price prediction to hive in 2022? ))ok, i will read. thank you

technical says it's bullish, Hive can have a nice rally upside, but in the longer term, fundamentals(macro, micro stuff) are more important than technical level. so I can't predict that much with much confidence, but anyway, the fundametal of hive is good now, and the world economy is in uncertinity, cryptos are taking over other currencies or commodities, so good to go with crypto now.

I've been watching DXY. It looked like it was topping out. Then it burst up through resistance and I was expecting a snapback. And now for the last few days it just seems to be consolidating while the technicals cool off. I think DXY is the new VIX. As long as its going up, financial assets are in trouble.

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which is where we are almost guaranteed to be if a recession strikes the economy.

The question is not if here but WEN?
I have simply no clue about TA and death crosses. My plans are and always will be long term. I bought HIVE when it was at 30 cents so even if we go back into the 50cent range I am still looking at nice gains over the time.
HIVE is there to be powered up and to grow my influence in the network. HBD is there as my retirement plan. I moved out of pretty every ETF or STOCK before the war started.
And a good portion of that money is coming into the polycub and hive ecosystem. ah wait those too are the same with pHIVE coming SOONtm

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Based on macro I would say this is bullish. Many projects are on major longterm support levels.

"Remember how I said I'd love to be proved wrong about my decision to sell at $0.80-$1.20. Ah well, here comes that bittersweet moment where I get to say I told you so."

You told us.... you'd be wrong? Well, congratulations, you called it! :P

Nah I said I love to be wrong about going bearish.
Seems as though going bearish was pretty good.

Ohh. Too many triple negatives?!
I have not been able to predict the BTC chart since late last year, shortly after I felt the pattern in place for 10 years had finally ended. As for Hive I agree with you about support between here and 50c, and that it will ultimately rise again. I'm a little concerned with the way so many content-creators and investors are being pushed off the platform right now by whale bullies with an agenda, including my wife and I now. If that continues, and there's nothing stopping it right now, could be looking at another stretch in the 10 cent range, as most interest gained in the past year or two goes somewhere greener. Impossible to predict that fundamental, of course. Good luck to all.

I'd love to be proved wrong about my decision to sell at $0.80-$1.20

Kinda struggling to find a single negative in that statement.
The word 'not' does not appear. (can't, isn't, won't, not, no, etc)

The police are at it again eh? Fun.

LasseCash earns 131283878656679% APY huh?

Just sayin?

I know you've heard of the term "lying by omission".

Dropping this information in the context you've presented it is clearly misleading.

EDIT:

Checked the post you linked and I see that the 3400% was already factoring in APY. You know the 20% on HBD is APR right? Yet another manipulation tactic to juke the numbers. To be fair the APY on 20% APR is... 22%. But then I could just go on to talk about how HBD is a stable coin and 22% on a stable asset is better than Warren Buffet's entire trading career.

The yield provided on any given coin isn't a metric of value unless the coin it self is stable. Obviously LeseeCash isn't stable or it is the best crypto ever made in which case I should buy some. Although I've yet to hear about any other utility than arbitrarily high yield, so I'm going to wait on that information first.

You read the comment before I was able to get the edit in.

dont know where you got this number?

I got the number from you, when you compared 20% APR to 3400%.

Obviously you were implying APR if you're comparing to another asset's APR.
That's not my bad, it's your bad.