I've been looking forward to this post since Friday night, as we're marking a historical event this week. I wanted to see where we stand, so let's get to it, but before I do, I want to say a few things about what happened on Friday night, for those who don't follow the news.
They say Trump announced a 100% tariff on China on Friday night and the news created a cascade in the market, the worst one in history. We don't know if this was the real reason, or not. There are other details regarding the event, but I'm not going to full my post with these now.
I'm going to quote Quinten here, to show you the magnitude of the event in numbers. Hive was not spared either obviously, but we'll see how out asset was affected in a bit.
The monthly candle is far from being closed, there are more than two weeks to go, but it is important to look at the current situation and see what we can expect, given the changes.
We have a bullish gap, that has been holding price for 54 months, since April, 2021. It was already fully rebalanced in June the same year but never inverted. In August, 2024, price came back into the gap again and since then, it has been slightly above or inside the gap, till now.
On Friday, price managed to sweep the all time low (ATL), which was sitting at $0.1015 since November 2020, establishing a new ATL at $0.0327!
Again, the current monthly candle is not closed, so we don't know what is going to look like, but the good thing is, price had a nice bounce that day and at the time of writing, $HIVE is trading at $0.1463 and it is below the gap. If price manages to climb back and close inside the gap (from where we are now, I wouldn't dare say close above the gap), we have a chance for bullish continuation. If price closes below the gap, the gap becomes resistance, but we'll see at the end of the month.
On the weekly time frame, we got a very ugly bearish engulfing candle, with a long downside wick. There's not much to say here honestly, it makes me sick, but that's my problem. I have to be professional so I've marked the swing high that can be next, which is $0.2151, if we get some momentum to the upside next week.
On the daily time frame chart, we have a bit more clarity. This violent drop has left a big bearish gap, which is acting as resistance now. For bullish continuation, price needs to get back and close above the gap, at $0.1785, in which case we can target $0.1945. In case of more weakness, the swing low is the new all time low (ATL), at at $0.0327, which I hope it'll never be revisited, but then again, technical analysis is not about what I hope or want.
From trading perspective, the h4 chart is an ugly one. We have 3 bearish gaps on the sell side, one of which is huge. Since the drop, price is meandering at the current level, trying to gain momentum, but it's the weekend, so don't expect much. For bullish continuation, price needs to invert the gaps marked on the chart and close above them, or at least above the first one. In case Monday brings more weakness, I'm looking at $0.1336 to be swept, as swing low, or maybe lower.
In all honesty, this is an unprecedented situation, I'd like to think what was worse is over, but in so many cases, on Monday, there can be another drop, to shake leverage out, so trade with caution.
$BTC had an interesting reaction. Priced dropped down into the lower range, almost touched range low, but at the time of writing, it is back into the top range. Close inside the top range and we can target mid-range.
The daily ETH/BTC chart is finally one that I like. Here price had a nice recovery today, we can see momentum and there's a chance for price to close above the bearish gap and invert it.
The shutdown is still on, so the economic calendar shows Tentative as data is not going to be released, unless the shutdown is over. Fed Chair Powell is going to speak in Tuesday. What he says could move the markets, but this is all supposition.
Remember, technical analysis is not about forecasting price, but about reacting to what price does.
As always, this is a game of probabilities, not certainties. Also please note, this is not financial advice, it's my view and understanding of the market.
All charts posted here are screenshots from Tradinview.
Come trade with me on Bybit.
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