I wonder... Do you recognize this daily chart?
I purposely didn't include any details in the screenshot. I'll give you a hint: it's not from the present.
If you want to guess what is the chart for, and especially, from what period, take a pause now from reading and think about it, because I will divulge these details later on and spoil all your fun. 😀
Scroll down for the rest of the post...
Ok, I guess we are down enough if you don't cheat. 😀
Ok, let's see what we were looking at. The portion with a distinct background is what I showed up there, but in this screenshot, I prefer to widen the view more to see the context better.
As you can see, this is the chart of Bitcoin, around the time of the previous halving in May 2020. Not long before that, on March 12th, we had a major one-day crash after Covid-19 was declared a pandemic.
It's interesting that in 2020 we had a V-shape recovery until a few days before the Bitcoin halving, something that cannot repeat these days because we didn't have a crash.
We can also notice a peak in June 2019 at 14k, almost a year before the halving. That again didn't happen this time around. Our peak was mid-March 2024, but we are now quite close to it again, and we can't exclude the possibility of another ATH soon. Just as we can't exclude that it could go down significantly from here. I'm more inclined toward the second variant because we need a valley between the two major peaks.
But since we had our first peak much later than in 2020's bull run (if that was the peak this time around in March 2024), we won't have as much time between the peaks, if we still believe in the theory of two peaks for this bull market. I'm considering the possibility that we might have only one major peak this bull market, in which case, we'll keep going up, with some periods of relief or pullback, but without long valleys between major peaks.
It is said that history doesn't repeat but it often rhymes. I'm not very convinced it will rhyme with the 2020 bull market, but I do think the cycle can still be relied on. Although I am watching for signs that something like gold can happen to Bitcoin after its spot ETFs were approved. When the first gold-based ETF was created it entered into a 8-year uptrend.
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I remember the corona crash very well and I told my friends that this was another opportunity to buy but they didn't buy and how long they were worried afterwards so everything was going exactly the way it was. But we have to get profit in time.
Yep, those who purchased then experienced another huge bull run until 20k. I remember buying a little too. Certainly didn't sell anything.
Very good analysis there! Yeah I think it won't replicate fully but it can be used as reference points.
Thanks! Yep, we can always learn from the past, especially with such a quick and clear cycle.
I know a lot of people might not be ready for it, and so am I, but sign me up for that 8 year uptrend. It would be great if altcoins also make a big run up with it.
I could use another "normal" cycle, lol.
Anything can happen and I think the cycles are just a reference. Things can still follow the general trend but work out differently. Just plan for the worst but I do hope that the cycle follows through.
So far the cycles were quite spot-on. The small details within the cycles varied, but the cycles themselves were incredibly predictable. It doesn't mean this will continue.
I am still believing in the cycles, but this time seems to be playing out differently.
I also think the cycles are still strong. I'm not so sure if we will have one or two major peaks this cycle though. That we'll have to see.
yes, its all still open and no one can predict that. i stick with the cycle and think we get a new ATH next year too.
I'm still thinking this is the most likely scenario.
I don't think we will get the same bull run like 2020, but something interesting should come, I wonder when
We may get a more interesting one.
If the previous halving could bring up a crazy pump, I feel people are getting more familiar with cryptocurrency day by day so the pump may even be better
All cycles ended with crazy pumps so far. I see no reason to think this time will be different. The only distinction is in the details, but they can be important.
Hello, @gadrian. I love your 8 year up prediction! Thank you for the lesson on the chart. This is very good information to learn. Barb !BBH !CTP #ctp
That's not necessarily a prediction. That's what happened to gold when their first ETF was approved. But it doesn't necessarily mean it will happen the same way with Bitcoin. Personally, I'd prefer if the cycle continues the normal way at least one more time.
I understand @gadrian. Maybe it will continue this way. I sure hope so because we need more positive things to happen now. Yes, I prefer the cycle to continue the normal way too for a long time! 🌟😀👍
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We may really get a more interesting bullrun than the 2020 who knows
I think it will be just as exciting, only with higher numbers.
I am really so optimistic about the future
We often are during bull markets...