Many noticed that Bitcoin has never in its existence made an all-time high before its halving. Well, that pattern is broken. It not only did it this time, it did it twice... so far. And we are not talking about two consecutive days where every day is a new ATH, we are talking about an ATH, followed by a flash crash of 10k which probably scared the hell out of the newcomers, and then a V-shape recovery to a new ATH at 70k.
You can see all of them in the screenshot below from TradingView:
Even more, while both the previous ATH and the following flash crash happened during weekdays with the buying pressure from bitcoin ETFs going on, this new ATH happened last night when Wall Street firms were off for the weekend.
Many expected (and I still do) that the bull market would have two waves, with the major one coming a good while after the halving event, after the market cools down a bit from the pre-halving pump.
But we are already in new territory with the pre-halving ATHs, and if the market keeps going up, I wonder: is it possible to have only one major wave this time around and maybe for the bull market to end (much) quicker than anticipated?
To be honest, I don't believe in this scenario. We are heading into a supply shock for Bitcoin, and the halving event will only amplify it, at least psychologically, because in reality the majority of Bitcoin has already been mined.
So, what should we expect? A mega-wave after the pre-halving one? When I say mega-wave, I refer to its amplitude, not to its time extension, which I expect to be similar if not slightly shorter than previous ones. Maybe...
But what if investors got a little carried away in the first wave, and we'll have a higher than usual first wave and a "normal" second wave, but still higher than the first one...
Hmm, if we get to 100k pre-halving like I've been reading and an according effect on alts (I don't think we will, but I don't exclude the possibility), I wonder how would that affect our plans for this bull market.
That would be an unexpectedly high price so early. I think I would take more profits than initially planned, but also at least partially re-enter the market if we have a cool-down period of a few months after the halving with at least a 30% fall from the highs, expecting the second wave.
What's your thinking about potential scenarios?
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You sound like you are getting more bullish now!? I am not sure I will trade BTC during a possible supply crunch, but I do understand people wanting to take some fiat profits.
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I am less certain about how this bull market will look like than I was 2 weeks ago. That is probably a good thing, we don't want copy-paste scenarios, or they will stop working.
Bullish? I was always bullish.
I think right before the halving we'll see a nice push followed by a sharp sell off. I'm waiting to buy some more until after that drop. I'm loving this run so far, it's been awesome!
If this goes on until shortly before halving, we might see very high prices... The selloff would be almost a certainty.
I think the fact that many people are referencing the previous 4 year cycles means the ATH/crash will happen earlier than the timelines in the previous cycles, and BTC reaching 70k before the halving event is probably another data point that validates my thinking (but it could be the ETF factor). I think we are at the lukewarm stage now, not early, but it's too early to take profits off the table. But that's just all guesswork.
What if BTC goes to 100k before halving? Would you say the same thing?
Haha of course not.. If BTC is at 100k, it's not early anymore.
I think this is the effect of the ETFs. A lot of BTC was bought up before the halving, and a lot of people are scrambling to get more. Just from the basics of supply and demand, I think BTC should continue to increase before and after the halving. And if that continues and Web3 gets more attention, the best case scenario is that it doesn't crash, and just goes sideways.
I don't like this scenario. I don't have enough crypto to embark on an 8-year bull, like gold did after its first spot ETF was approved. 😅
I have sometimes compared BTC to gold. If BTC follows its footsteps, I don't think a lot of people are ready haha.
I don't really know but anything can happen. I think the big ETFs and hedgefunds can push prices as they wish. As much as we don't like manipulation, it can definitely happen so I don't know where things will go.
Yeah, they are the biggest unknown during this bull cycle.
I am so sure that this is just the beginning and trust me there are many more to come before the day ends. Bitcoin will still go higher in price
Well, for the time being, it seems we keep pumping. It looks like ETFs are hungry. Let's see for how long.
I feel the price will still go up up
We just have to be optimistic about more Bull run coupled with the fact that the BTC halving is coming very soon
That's what the bull market usually does... until it doesn't. But right now I think it's still on its upward trajectory.
I am so much optimistic about the price of bitcoin this year and I strongly believe this is just the beginning though
Well, the beginning was at 16500... But it can get (much?) higher, that's for sure.
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Do you think hive will pump too?
Yes. If for nothing else, thanks to people considering this chain their home and returning parts of their profits from the bull market into HIVE.