Here's my analysis of the situation.
The correction started on March 14th, on Thursday. I believe it was a short-term plan that involved provoking the correction until the weekend. The complicated part was to keep the daily candles red on Thursday and Friday when ETFs were on the other side buying. Whoever planned this needed all the help they could get, like massive liquidations of long positions.
The pushdowns began early in the morning (night in America) before Wall Street opened for business.
To the max, it dropped something like 7-8% on March 14th, then buyers kicked in when American markets opened and it only dropped something like 4-5% at the end of the day.
On Friday, a similar scenario, on a higher volume. Bitcoin dropped significantly early in the day and recovered a big part of the loss after ETF purchases started.
Then Saturday came. No more ETF activity, since Wall Street works on banking days, and weekends are off.
Bitcoin dropped again, as in the previous days, but never recovered, because there was nobody on the other side to buy continuously in significant volumes.
Note the volume on Saturday is lower than on the previous days but higher than the "regular" weekend volumes, which means the pushdown was resisted.
Then today came. slightly in the green. My impression is that whoever provoked the correction can't afford to keep pushing against the tide, knowing that tomorrow ETFs start to play again, and they are less motivated to push down.
Regarding ETFs, why would they still be the "fouls" that keep buying, no matter the price? First of all, the price is low for them, much lower than many anticipated given how much bitcoin they amassed. Secondly, I believe they won't reverse course until they have a much more sizeable investment in Bitcoin or until it becomes way harder to buy them from truly strong hands. Then they will switch their play, but I imagine by that time they will have the necessary derivatives in play so they can earn on the downtrend as well.
Now, this is where the story of this correction ends, or I am wrong and we enter a few months of slow bleeding, side movements, and fake signs of recovery, as we had in the past. We might still have that. But I believe the market is not ready yet to go down. Right now, however, it doesn't seem very convinced to go up either... Maybe they wait to see what happens tomorrow...
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I hope you are right, as I just bought some. In the long run these prices are still cheap.
Well... I bought it back after a small speculation. If the market continues the downtrend, then I bought back too soon. If it goes up, for now, as I suspected it would, then I made a small profit and am ready for the next wave.
If you can buy with fiat, it's still cheap!
Is this the last correction of the bitcoin halving? But if there is a big correction, it should go down by 40% to 45%. But at the moment I bought some coins and now at a bit of a loss although I hope to get a good profit from them soon. thank you
I don't think this one has the strength to keep going down or even to keep Bitcoin in range. We will know more tomorrow.
Is it safe to go outside yet?
I don't know. Kind of a chilly wind, lol, but they say spring is coming. 😅
I don't think any one knows for sure yet. Weekends traditionally have been bad for BTC, but I think we will see another push towards the all time high again. Monday will tell us a lot. Problem being is when you get investors who are all profit driven those stop loss sales kick in and further drop the market.
I'm still optimistic though!
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Nothing is certain, of course, in the markets. Stop loss for someone is 'buy the dip' for another. And a constant buy pressure from ETFs, for now, from my impression.
Very true!
Would be good to be in the mind of market makers 😅 will have to wait Monday I guess
Sometimes market makers themselves can't have it their way. They abandon a plan if it becomes too expensive to sustain it or they can't convince enough people to do what they expect them to do.
I have seen a few similar posts that discuss this. There is usually a few weeks of correction before the halving, but some are saying this time's correction might be shorter because of the ETFs. I do hope that is the case, since the alts took a dip already.
Here's where alts are at a disadvantage. In a scenario like the one we saw playing in the second part of last week, everything dips, but unlike Bitcoin, alts don't have ETFs to save the day, and remain down.
Yeah. One of the few advantages of ETFs.
Yeah. That and marketing, but not for crypto, for ETFs. Indirectly, people will know of Bitcoin, and maybe a few will reach it and crypto without ETFs.
I think it's hard to really predict. We are in a new cycle and I don't really know if everything will stay the same as last time with the ETFs. We can only wait to see.
I agree. That's why I try to factor in ETF effects on the market. I'm sure everyone is trying the same thing, and no one will 100% succeed.
It will be nice if your predictions work out
I’d be so glad
We'll know more certainly tomorrow afternoon after ETFs are back in business.
That pullback provides an opportunity for those who want to add or to catch up with the bull run.
It sure does. Pullbacks are beneficial.
Others expect a continuous run and are afraid of pullbacks.
I know. If they have confidence in their holdings long-term, then they should stop watching the price when pullbacks happen.
We might be experiencing a massive dip soon
Everything is possible. But define "massive". Until it breaks ATH again, Bitcoin is still in the halving pullback scenario, theoretically. And it can go as low as 51k. But we will see...
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STOPWe are quite in for some massive dip for a while