It was great to see Bitcoin's price to jump above 20k once again. It was equally a welcome trend change for rest of the crypto market as well. Hive is going up, LTC going up, Ether going up, etc. Obvious question in everybody's mind is "Is this the beginning of the bull market?" As usual opinions differ. Some claim this is short term trend change, others claim it is time for crypto prices to rise again. When it comes to market prices nobody really knows. Nobody is correct all the time either. It is all guessing game.
Hash Ribbons Indicator created by Capriole Charles on TradingView, triggered a 'Buy' signal today. It is rare for this indicator to print a 'Buy' signal, and this signal has been more reliable in the past compared to other publicly indicators. Although there was a recent time when it failed as well.
Charts and indicators are commonly used tools by traders and investors. While everybody uses different platforms, apps, charts and indicators as part of their trading strategies, the data used is same. All indicators use a different ways of calculating the same data that charts display - open, high, low, close, volume. In a sense various chart patterns and indicators serve as a self-fulfilling prophecies, because many participants of the markets are making their trading decisions based on the same price feed data.
After this weeks Bitcoin price action many indicators triggered a buy signals. It is kind of obvious to make such calls after decent rise in price and reclaiming a significant price point and staying above 20k. One of the potential reasons for enthusiasm in the markets and sudden rise of bitcoin and crypto prices can the recent news about inflation, that it may be slowing down. Just like indicators, this is another way of guessing the direction of markets. Regardless what the reasons might be, market participants will continue to make sense of various situations and associate some rational reasoning behind price moves.
There are many who do not use any indicators. I personally find indicators interesting. None of them work all the time. But if some do work some of the time, this might just be enough to gain some edge. Another reasons I like indicators is because of platforms like TradingView that allows users to write their own scripts and experiment with community built indicators.
Hash Ribbons indicator is an open source script written by Capriole Charles on TradingView. To see the explanations by the author and see the full code visit Hash Ribbons by Capriole on TradingView. The author of the indicator also provides the full code for review and experimenting with. It is available for free. There are other Hash Ribbons indicators on TradingView as well. If you are going to try this indicator, make sure you are choosing the one by Capriole Charles.
Normally, indicators use various calculations on price values like open, close, high, low of the given asset. Sometimes we also see volume values being used as well. What makes Hash Ribbons a unique indicator is, it is specific for Bitcoin and it uses hash rate values.
On the screenshot above you can see at the top section the Bitcoin price chart, and at the bottom section the Hash Ribbon indicator. It has some green and yellow lines, and different color circles at the top of the indicator.
Forget about everything else, and only look at the Blue Circles with a "Buy" written under them. To understand what everything else does, or if you even would need them, you can review the code and explanations by Capriole Charles. But for the purposes of this post, let's only look at the Blue Circles. Here is how author explains them:
The "blue" circle is the first instance of positive momentum following recovery of Hash Rate (1m HR > 2m HR). This is historically a rewarding place to buy with limited downside.
You can see from the screenshot above that when Blue Circles appeared price of Bitcoin did go up, sometimes slowly, sometimes right away. The screenshot above is showing the weekly chart. We can use daily or other timeframes. The blue circles will appear on the same date regardless the timeframe.
The indicator can be used on different timeframes like daily, weekly or monthly. The higher is the timeframe, the more reliable are the signals, in my opinion. As I already mentioned there was a time when this indicator failed as well, and it was one of the recent one on a daily chart. If you change your chart view to daily timeframe, you will notice that there was a "Buy" signal on August 19, 2022. That day bitcoin's price actually had a significant drop from 23k to below 21k. Since then it hasn't reclaimed 23k yet. However, if we look at the weekly or monthly timeframe, we can see Hash Ribbons "Buy" signal did turn out to be a correct prediction of the price direction.
While charts, historical patterns, and indicators can be interesting and serve as tools to read what happened in the past and help us guess the future price action, they remain to be guessing gaming. There are always unknowns, and it is easy to lose real money in the markets. No one trading strategy fits alls.
It is pleasant surprise to see bitcoin and hive prices going up for a change. I personally do no expect any significant price movements this year, maybe even next year. But 2025 is probably going to be the year bitcoin will make new all time highs. I will happy to be wrong and see new all time highs sooner. Keeping expectations low is better than having high expectations and being disappointed.
Have you used Hash Ribbons indicator? Let me know your thoughts in the comments.
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Finally glad to see someone create some TA that is directly tied to the hash rate. Thanks for the in depth and very well delineated post; very helpful to all that take the time to read it.
I don't use any indicator, I trade in forex and follow price action strategy
The way Bitcoin has performed last week, if it continues this week, it will comfortably go to 25,500. As soon as the market gains more, new investors will come and wells will come, so we can see up to 40,000 in the next three to four months. All indicators and express are saying that Bitcoin will go to fifty thousand dollars by the end of this year. The holders also want the Bitcoin move on now because they have been waiting for a long time.
BTC is now a buy. My holdings already gained $10 since last week, perhaps should accumulate bit more !
elaborate significant ;)
would 40k be significant this year?
2x isn't really significant in crypto terms. :D
But it would be significant to someone's portfolio haha
We have already seen 40k. So, that wouldn’t be significant.
okay, to me 40k would already be significant. 100k is a new ATH so deifnitely still going to take some years. 2025 should be the cycle high
Surely as you say there will be no significant movements, in the sense that the historical maximums will probably not be exceeded.
In any case, I think it will be a good year to continue to accumulate, for now the prices are still good to buy at a good price.
Im not making any speculations or forecasts, but I think that its going to be a bull market for a few weeks perhaps months. But I think it would most likely crash again and consolidate around the current levels and the by the years end it would be full on bull run again...
Its just going to run a bull now and be done with it🤣 but most proper bull runs happened before december soooo
I haven't heard of this indicator but I really don't care where we are with the current market in the first place :D. My strategy is classic DCA. Just buy each month if you can afford it. It is a slow but guaranteed strategy.
im not prepared for 100k this year, lets make better 200k in 2025 :D
need to buy more splinterlands cards, buy more btc, buy more all altcoins while its cheap, just give me like few months :D because now 1$ can be 10$ in 2 years.
As it seems dollar is losing its value and crypto/gold will be gaining. Interesting times ahead.
Regarding Bitcoin I am following a german guy who is using Elliot Waves analysis to get an idea of possible future moves. I am not a trader but it helps to have a better feeling about price targets and sentiment etc.
Haven’t heard of the indicator you mentioned but kind of nice he shows a positive momentum. 👍🏻
For me following other people’s trade tips or advice never worked. I do better when I come with a trade idea myself.
It’s not that I am following certain concrete trade proposals but it helps to get an understanding of a certain situation.
I believe strongly that 2024 is the year bitcoin will experience a new massive ATH
Glad that BTC has some green action and the community lighting up. It is swings like this that remind us. If we are to make the most of the markets investing is a continuous process. Even though analysis is but guessing it makes things fun and might land you the big break of not constant gains as one improves at it
Gold has been increasing at the same time. This trend might be related to the FED's future interest rate policy.
I am not into trading, neither I understand how these indicators are read. I bought some crypto on public opinion. As you mentioned, I also think that no one's view is the right answer. Only the time reveals which opinion proves to be right.
Seeing the crypto price going high is something satisfying, but I am also in doubts if it is short term or the bull run
no. never used that one, but it is nice to see crypto moving now..
geekgirl? i see why you are called that, a girl smashing and doing justice to every thing "TRADE" if that ain't girl power then i don't know what it is.
keep doing what you know how to do @geekgirl i learnt a thing and two from your post
keep it up👍
I see a great future ahead for Bitcoin.
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I have not used the Hash Ribbons indicator, so thanks for the heads up about it. It's just great to see Bitcoin, Hive and the market in general growing again and some positivity for a change, hopefully it will last a while, and is not just a temp bounce. The jury is still out..
@geekgirl I found your article very interesting about hash rate and the bitcoin candles. This is really a good article for me thanks