Buy the rumor?

• I have been in cryptocurrency a relatively short mount of time, compared to the people I call OGs like @anomadsoul or @khaleelkazi , but to some of you newer folks my six years plus in crypto makes me an OG to you...
• So as a gift to you who see me as an OG I am saying the Rumors are flying that Bitcoin is going to have a big bullrun in the first quarter of 2024.
• The stars are lining up, in a metaphorical sense, as the approval of a Bitcoin Spot ETF is currently rumored to be happening in the first quarter of 2024.
• Also the rumors of a bullrun after the Bitcoin halvening in March are also in the air, like smoke around a small campfire. Just whispers at first, then suttle repeated phrases, soon to become songs of a chorus and lastly shouts like noise in the soccer stadiun when our home team scores a important goal in a soccer game.

Fortunes are made by what you do before the bull run

• If we look at what the people I see as OGs are saying, and the people they see as OGs are saying, we see a consistent theme.
• Buying during a Bull run may net you some impressive gains, but the buys you buy before the bullrun are what net you the most impressive gains.
• Buying Cub at 1 cent will net you far more gains if it goes to 50 cents during the bullrun, a 50x versus buying it at 25 cents and riding it to 50 cents during the bullrun, an impressive 2x or 100% gain, but far from the 50x ...
• The same can be said for Bitcoin, Ethereum and your other favorite Altcoin. Prices are low now, and buying any altcoin is truly a gamble, so choose wisely, but they suggest you chose now, so you get the best prices, and the biggest gains

Gains can definitely be made during the next bull run

• Don't get me wrong, if you sit on the side because you are unsure which cryptocurrency is going to see big gains, there is nothing wrong with the strategy.
• Always remember: It is your money, it's your research, it's your plan, and it's your job to decide what you think is best for your money. Because you own the wins and you own the losses.
• If you choose to sit on the sidelines until it is clear who the winners in the next bullrun are going to be, and you enter at a point where you think there is still a 2x or 3x upside, you can still be sucessful, and possibly the odds will be more in your favor with this strategy.
• The important thing is that you think it through and you do what you are comfortable doing, and you OWN IT as in take responsibility for your actions. Don't do anything with your money because I say so, do something with your money because you say so, as in act on your own thoughts, assessment and tolerance for risk. It's your money.

Investment can be distill down to "Probability of Success."

• Please realize that no one has a crystal ball to see into the future, and all investments stocks, bonds, gold, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Hive or Leo are gambles.
• When we play poker or buy lottery tickets, we are gambling that we know the probabilities of success and we are placing our bets with best calculated probability of success.
• When we invest in stocks, bonds, gold, silver, BItcoin, Hive or Leo we are also placing our bets with best calculated probability of success.
• Let me be clear and you must be clear with yourself, most investment involves risk of loss of capitol. Which is a fancy way of saying you lose all your money.

Lastly, be clear that investing in US treasuries is different from investing in Bitcoin.

• If you buy 100 dollars worth of US Treasuries they will always be worth a 100 dollars.
• That is a safe and an easy investment, because it is a high probability event, meaning you can be very sure that your treasuries will be worth 100 dollars in a week, a month, and in a year .
• Additionally you can trust that there us a very, very low possibility that your 100 dollars of US Treasuries will not be worth 100 dollars.
• Bitcoin or cryptocurrency is not like that.
• If you buy 100 dollars worth of Bitcoin it could be worth 50 dollars next week.
• The value of Bitcoin is not predictable like US Treasuries, as in you must acknowledge the possibility that it will be worth less, and possibily much less.
• I personally think there is a high probability that it be worth 100 dollars in a day, week or month, but I must admit to you, that the probability for BItcoin is lower then the probability for US Treasuries. And while it is probably impossible that US Treasuries will be worth less, I can't say the same for Bitcoin.
• Investing in US Treasuries near a 100 percent probability of capitol preservation and near zero possibility of capitol loss.
• Bitcoin is definitely not a 100 percent probability of capitol preservation and definitely not a zero percent possibility of capitol loss.

Understand Probability and Possibility of Loss

• When we buy Bitcoin or any other cryptocurency we are investing, or relying on what we know and understand about it's probability of going up in price and the possibility tit will go down in price.
• All investments are gambles, where we seek to understand the probability of success and the possibility of failure, then make our decision based on what we think is right for our money. And then own that decision, as our choice and our choice alone.
• We are the Captain of our team, so we take the fame when we win, and the blame when we lose.
• But more importantly we practice, learn and get better at the game.

Posted Using InLeo Alpha

Posted Using InLeo Alpha