BTC thoughts

Let's see where Bitcoin is.
Bitcoin finds itself delicately poised within a crucial range, primarily oscillating between 69.3k and 71.4k. This range has evolved beyond mere resistance, potentially transforming into a supportive zone, setting the stage for an optimistic outlook. The significance of this range cannot be overstated, if we breach below 69k, especially with a swift and decisive 4-hour candle close, could signal a bearish turn of events, potentially cascading towards a significant correction. Such a scenario, marked by a daily close below 68,400, would trigger concerns of a "fake-bounce" scenario, with tentative support levels anticipated at 67k and 65k, ultimately targeting a bearish descent towards the 61k region.

Now let me tell you the scenarios I am thinking.

Preferred Scenario (Optimistic)

• Range between 69.3k and 71.4k acts as support instead of resistance.
  4-hour 50-RSI becomes support.
• Daily close above 68,400.
• Price fluctuates between 69,300 and 71,400 for a few hours, allowing RSI to reset from 70 to 50 before moving upwards.

Unwanted Scenario (Bearish Correction)

• Violent rejection with 4-hour candle closing below 69k, possibly within 2-3 candles.
  -Daily close below 68,400.
• Potential "fake-bounce" at 67k and 65k, leading to a decline towards 61k.

Unexpected Bullish Surge

• Market surges above 72k.
• Preference for gradual increases rather than sudden spikes before reaching new highs.

Given these scenarios, the focus is on monitoring key indicators such as RSI, EMA, daily closing prices, and market sentiment to assess the likelihood of each outcome. Ultimately, the decision to stay in or exit positions depends on individual risk tolerance and alignment with the anticipated market movements.

Posted Using InLeo Alpha