It is very difficult to judge what causes the price of an asset to run. Often, it is the overall market sentiment that moves things. As traders know, "the trend is your friend". A large portion of assets will move together within a particular market.
For example, when equities are on a bull run, most stocks see gains. There will be a few laggards for whatever reason and those are often ones to watch out for.
The same holds true in cryptocurrency. As Bitcoin started to take off, slowly, over the ensuing year, other tokens started to follow.
That said, the market is its own entity. It moves how it wants, when it wants. Thus, trying to apply "rules" to what is happening is impossible.
Over the years, we saw a number of pumps in the crypto world. With many tokens having extremely small market caps, this is easy to do. It is something we see occur with frequency in the penny stock world.
Basically a couple of money players come in and "play with the tape". This leads them to moving the price up by causing a momentum play. In the end, the price crash when the manipulators exit the pump, taking their money with them.
Traders do not care about pumps. In fact, they love them. These people look for momentum and depend upon it for massive gains. To them, the asset is really of little importance.
Investors are a different breed. They are thinking longer term and do care about where their money is going. This means they look for certain signs that align with what their research reveals.
Which brings us to Hive. For the past year I maintained that token price is secondary. It truly is a lousy barometer as to the value of what is taking place. The development is the most important thing since that is where the user base will come from.
In looking at the chart, we can see something that is very telling.
Using the 90 day chart from Coingecko, we see this move:
This is one of the most boring 4x runs anyone will ever see. Nothing here is real exciting to the trader. Instead, we see a chart that screams "slow and steady".
It is something, however, that is vital to investors. People want to see something that is growing. For those who understand what is taking place on Hive, development is growing at an accelerating pace. This will eventually be reflected in the token price.
HIVE legged higher while also spending time consolidating. This is a wonderful way for an asset to behave. Each pullback resulted in a "higher-low" meaning it was still higher than where it started the previous burst.
We have a case where we are seeing healthy moves in the market regarding HIVE. This should bode well in the future.
To contrast, let us step further back and look at the 1 year chart.
Notice the difference from the last time. Look at the move in early May. The price of Hive went straight up. Unfortunately, when the market pumps, it often dumps. That is exactly what happened.
While applying "fundamentals" to markets is always tough since they basically do what they want, here we could make the case that this pump is inspired, at least in part, by the development that is taking place on Hive.
Ultimately, any blockchain is going to have to depend upon what is taking place on it for its long-term success. While everyone loves the publicity and marketing game, in the end, chains with little taking place will end up having little value.
If we want an example of this, look at EOS. This was a chain that started with great fanfare yet since it went live, it has seen difficulty. As we found out, there is dispute between the direction of Block.One as compared to the developers on the chain.
The question of what is taking place on there is a valid one? In fact, this applies to all blockchains. People tend to look at price without really inquiring what is really going on there. After all, the market values it greatly so it must be worthy. This is a grave mistake because markets often misprice things.
Hive is in a totally different situation. It does not take a lot of effort to uncover the development that is taking place on here. We are rapidly moving to another level as more options are developed for users. The existing applications are providing upgrades offering new features while new projects pop up on a weekly basis.
All of this is leading to the idea that Hive could really be a success based upon its development. That is what is going to lead it high over the long-term. There is no hype surrounding HIVE and this is a good thing. It allows for those building to focus upon what they need to. All the rest is really noise anyway.
Is the overall market trend helping the price of HIVE? Most likely. If the market drops, we can expect a pullback in HIVE also.
However, what is shaping up is a point whereby the market participants start to realize what is taking place. As the token legs higher, it provides confidence to outside investors. Bigger market caps offer that confidence as long as there is something to substantiate it.
Hive is working on the substantiation each day. We see more being developed which also will inspire that trust from the investment community. This is a slow process, requiring a lot of grinding away. There are no shortcuts. Confidence is something that has to be earned.
So while we are not there yet, the progress over the first year is remarkably. As it will, the token price was all over the place but the progress of the ecosystem was steady. We are now seeing that reflected in the chart.
As long as we see the development continue, we will, over the long-term, see this play out in the market price. There are going to be ebbs and flows but the overall trend will be up.
This is what development based pumps look like.
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I think while the price of HIVE has went up, it is probably most likely due to the Bull market. The price of BAT and WAX were both pumped up. I think we are onboarding more users daily but I doubt these are people who are actively pumping the price. HIVE was fairly oversold around the $0.10 range though so a pump was expected.
I think HIVE's primary use is for RCs so I think Project Blank is going to help the price of HIVE at current prices or increase.
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Just like in stocks, technicals can be used to call/justify blips, but the rock hard fundamentals are what really count towards value.
I am very confident with the work here as well.
I already see our solid 1 $ soon!
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Ever since HIVE has claimed the $0.15 level it was clear that it wasn't in a pump but an uptrend. One year after it's launch and Hive is quite a competing blockchain and has probably gained trust of investors rather than just the attention of traders. It's somehow influenced by the whole market swings but it matters a lot also how it will hold future gains over the bear market that's about to come. LINK is an example of doing good during such times and Hive might replicate that to some extent. Once it peaks it will dump, but to what level. I doubt we will ever see it at $0.10.
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BEER.The real strength of HIVE is its communities and I love how many individuals and groups are creating variety of Projects & Developments. The ecosystem is rich and community is one of the most active one's I have seen. There are so many options to invest especially with the 2nd Layer tokens on Hive-Engine. One can build an interesting portfolio on HIVE itself instead of buying other Alt Coins from the market. $2 by the end of year is quite fair.
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I like how Hive is consolidating but some large pumps from time to time can spice things up :)
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That got me laughing there, though the slow and steady is what I prefer, it gives us time to keep accumulating and above all it is not going to suddenly pump to some ridiculous figure and come crashing down ridiculously as well.
As long as the Hive chart continues to scream slow and steady I will continue paying attention!
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Outside of sorting through all the posts is there anyway to find all the new projects/
This is probably what you're looking for: https://hiveprojects.io/
I'm seeing prices way higher than the one we have right now, because there is an altseason going on right now and hopefully will stay all this year long, and because there is so much development going in HIVE as well, both things will make the price moon sometime this year, the problem will be to get a base price when the FOMO is out on 2022 or 2023, but it will be achieved by having some good fundamentals as a base for HIVE and all its communities.
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Yes, but maybe a little advertisement/marketing about it would not hurt. Just more people would meet this blockchain and the projects on it.
If I remember correctly, the pump during Hive's early days was due to an incentive offered by an exchange where they would airdrop extra tokens for those who deposited Hive with them. My memory is kind of fuzzy so I could be wrong.
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The pump during the early days was due in large part to all the press associated with the stake fight and ultimately the fork away from the steemit-controlled Steem blockchain.
Happy with development growth over a normal pump as we are here for the long ride. I have been looking around and not being biased just honest there is very little that comes close to what is going on here. Undervalued big time comparing with others and surely that is only good as it means the price will go up constantly once people see what we do.
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I was thinking it was due to the 1 year birthday today and figured people would be buying up hive to power it up or something to celebrate. However looking over the last month it's just been a steady increase with not much of a correction back. That's actually looking rather bullish and I can't say it's because of the rally on other coins because it hasn't really mirrored them at all.
I believe we are just starting to see more people enter into Hive and Leo as they are small buckets of people at the moment. Plenty and I mean PLENTY of room for growth and CUB has helped bring some light to that.
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I'm glad to see where we have climbed to, on this first anniversary of Hive.
As much as anything, I tend to be a "volume watcher." Price rises on anemic volume seldom go anywhere; meanwhile, those to "spikes" in the Hive chart were accompanied by explosive volume... typical of a lot of "churning" but generally it's all caused by day traders trying to fill their pockets on trades that often last from minutes to hours. They are nice, though, because they can help create a "higher low." What's happening right now... for the last couple of weeks... is awesome! Steady upward price movement on "increased" volume that's not out of control... to me, that signals accumulation, rather than pump/dump activity. And that's a good thing!
Thanks for an interesting post, as always!
=^..^=
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Very soon with the look of things hive is going to a dollar
Shout out to the "old sunburned crew" who said Hive would be five cents by now ... nope...
Slow and steady wins the race...
Here's to the coming prosperous years.
Cheers
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I think we will see some take profits, some buy-in.
If the "hungry for fiat" people sold out, there will be not many people left that want to sell IMO.
So it's all a matter of time :)
Hello @taskmaster4450,
I was awake at night waiting for a hive Pump, I swore that the hive would arrive more than 1 dollar, but unfortunately what I predicted did not happen. I went to sleep, and woke up to see what value Hive would have reached but I confess it was not this time.
Luck and success in your path "
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In my view, price isn't that important for HIVE blockchain to work and its users to have quality experience. Steady drip of HIVE with 0.25 US$ is preferable to the flash flood when it pumps to 1 US$ only to be followed by months and years of drought when it dumps back to 0.1 US$ during inevitable bear market.
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We saw that Hive in its early days was pumped up with euphoria and optimism after the fork of Steem. In its current state, the increase in its price is due to the constant development of Apps on the Hive blockchain.
Being honest and without exaggerating, the Hive blockchain should be among the top 3 blockchains with the most activity and development. Without forgetting that it is one of the fastest and with unbeatable transaction rates.
There is nothing left but to help her grow, I would like to know about programming to help her development with projects, but I will still help to push her as I can.
Vimos que Hive en sus primeros dias fue bombeado por la euforia y obtimismo luego de la bifurcacion de Steem. En su estado actual, el aumento en su precio viene dado, por el desarrollo constante de Apps en la cadena de bloques de Hive.
Siendo honesto y sin llegar a exagerar, la cadena de bloques de Hive, debe estar entre las 3 primeras blockchain con mas actividad y desarrollo. Sin olvidar que es de las mas rapidas y con tarifas por transaccion inmejorables.
No queda mas que ayudarla a crecer, quisiera saber de programacion para ayudar a su desarrollo con proyectos, pero igual ayudare a empujarla como pueda.
I'm not waiting for the pumps, I've turned on the hive power and I've been playing for a long time, at least 2 years. rapid heights without development are not worth waiting for and the fact that the hive is developing is a fact.
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