Metaverse. Metaverse. Metaverse.
It is all we hear about today. Scroll through YouTube and you will see any number of videos touting "The Top 5 Metaverse Stocks To Buy." This is truly baffling.
In this article we will breakdown some of what is taking place and how outrageous things are getting.
Hype Cycle
We have to remember that there are many pieces to what will eventually be the Metaverse. This is also going to be a drawn out process centered around development. There are a number of technological challenges before we arrive to anything that resembles a working model. In other words, do not expect the Ready Player One experience anytime soon.
What we are witnessing is not uncommon with technology. In fact, it is usually part of the process. Technologies go through hype cycles that follow a predicable path.
The Metaverse concept is on that right now.
Garnter developed a model detailing how this works. We can break down the basics to this.
Here is the Gartner Hype Cycle:
Source
As we can see, the attention that Metaverse received is easy to pinpoint. We are progressing up the first slope, heading towards the Peak of Inflated Expectations.
Of course, Metaverse isn't really a technology but, rather, a number of different innovations compiled together. Nevertheless, we can apply this concept to what will take place.
The excitement around the Metaverse is going to die out. The reason why expectations crash and push things towards the Trough of Disillusionment is because they get ahead of technological capabilities. A new innovation is introduced and everyone gets excited about it. Articles are written causing people to purchase or utilize what is created.
What ends up happening? It sucks. The first generation of any new technology is slow, clunky, expensive, and full of bugs. This causes a major crash in what people think about it. Of course over time, things get better with upgrades and further development.
The challenge with Metaverse is trying to find it.
What Is The Metaverse?
We are to the point right now where there is not an agreed upon definition of what the Metaverse is. Here we have the problem of how do we size up something we cannot even define.
This makes no difference to those who are actively promoting it.
What we know is that it is going to be a future evolution of the Internet. Unlike some are proclaiming, it is not likely the next generation. Instead, it will be something much bigger. It makes sense that our next iteration will be Web 3.0, another component of the much larger Metaverse.
Either way, this is not tempering the expectations whatsoever. Grayscale even got into the action. They published “The Metaverse, Web 3.0 Virtual Cloud Economies”.
In this report, two things stand out. To start, they believe the Metaverse is already here with users. While that is not technically wrong, it is truly not in keeping with how things are unfolding. That is akin to saying that television watchers from decades ago were satellite users. Certainly the broadcasts were beamed via satellite, most people simply turned on their television to watch the signal that was received via an antenna on the roof. Yet, would anyone say that those watching television in the 1960s were satellite users?
The second piece to this is the fact they believe it will be a $1 trillion opportunity. Here is where things make no sense. What the heck are their criteria?
Obviously, the lack of definition and hype is clouding things. If one is taking the Metaverse to mean virtual, then that encompasses the entire Internet. Obviously, future iterations will move this from 2-D to 3-D. However, even in a world of screens, this is virtual.
They also seem to want to have it pertain to cryptocurrencies. If that is the case, the $1 trillion opportunity was far exceeded since the market cap is near $3 trillion.
We also have people who want to focus upon the mixed reality (AR/VR) experiences. To them, this is the Metaverse. While that certainly is going to bring on a new iteration of things, this only captures a small portion of what is going to take place.
As we can see, there is a lot of confusion surrounding the Metaverse, something the mainstream media is not delving into. They found a buzzword to hook people.
How Big Will The Metaverse Be?
This is going to top Grayscale's prediction albeit in a much longer timeframe.
The Metaverse is going to be worth many quadrillions of dollars. It is also going to take decades to unfold. This is not something that is a near term innovation.
Essentially, it is the ongoing progression of the Internet. Looking at what took place, the Internet of the 1990s is not the same as today. This version is far more encompassing. We also see a great deal of development went into generating our experiences that we presently have. One of the biggest advancements was the evolution of our communication systems. The infrastructure of the Internet is a great deal more robust than it was 3 decades ago.
At the same time, we are now in a mobile world. That was not the case back then. Here we have an innovation that changed society a great deal.
Asking what is the opportunity in the Metaverse is like trying to apply to that the Internet. How much is the Internet worth today?
Cisco famously put a price tag on it in 2014 of $19 trillion. Another attempt was made by an individual a couple years ago, and the value was around $30 trillion. In reading the analysis, it is easy to see this person took the bare components. Obviously, the Internet's value is a great deal more than just its "organs".
Ultimately, it is impossible to truly value something like this. The same holds true for the Metaverse and what it will do for humanity. Eventually, the Metaverse will encompass everything. We are in the process of seeing much of our physical world digitized. There is a layer being constructed on top due to 3-D mapping and the "trillion sensor economy". We also are going to see digital twins of many physical items such as factories, automobiles, and wind turbines. Almost everything that is in the physical will have a digital representation.
Then we have our multiple avatars which will enable us to increase our experiences by a couple orders of magnitudes. As software capability advances, we are going to see this coupled with digital representations that allow for us to operate in different multiverses simultaneously. Think if it as bots but on steroids.
For all of this to occur, we are going to require latency levels that are not seen today. This means enhancing our communication systems even further, ultimately getting edge computing to the point where most processing is done away from the cloud. Localizing all of this necessitates overcoming a host of technical challenges. It will be done, just not in the next few months.
In Conclusion
None of this is written to be a Debbie-Downer. It is an exciting time to be witnessing all that is unfolding. We are literally watching the future being developed on a daily basis.
However, that does not mean that things are not getting ahead of themselves. Our evolution towards the Metaverse is going to be incredible. Over the next couple decade, most aspects of life will change. While progress will be rapid, it will also be very lethargic.
Development takes time; large scale development takes a long time.
Therefore, pay attention to what is taking place while also not buying into the hype. Have no fear about missing the "early days of the Metaverse". It is going to be a long process. At the same time, when the crash in hype occurs, do not believe the Metaverse to be a misplaced idea that did not work out. The development is going to keep on even after the attention fades away.
Presently, we just have to deal with the Metaverse Madness.
Other articles about the Metaverse:
- The Confusion Around The Metaverse
- Cryptocurrency and Blockchain: The Foundation for the Metaverse
- Metaverse: Interoperability and Portability
- Splinterlands: Welcome to the Metaverse
- Metaverse: The Replacement for the Nation-State
- Metaverse: The End of Hollywood
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Great post!
Priceless. Or at least not definable. The value of the internet as a technological thing is varies from people to people, from country to country. Nowadays the internet is providing a living to many people, while others are using it only for entertainment. So the value of the internet is very subjective, but that is certain that it is very valuable. Nowadays our whole lives would be very different without the internet.
That is certainly true. There really is no way to price it. What we know is the value is greater than just the pipes that it is built upon.
If I had to guess, I would say it is worth well over $100 trillion. Just think of how 5 billion people's lives are different because of it.
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Hmmm, i think i only see a portion of this article. Very strange!
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As expected, great content! Re-blogging it for my reference.
Reading your articles have been a very enlightening experience for me, but then I wonder why most people I know seem to be unaware about the great technological change that is happening right now.
I think I have to do my homework to catch up with your thoughts.
Thanks!
They simply dont pay attention. It takes time to investigate what is taking place and to link things together. Many people do not have time to do that. That is why I write these for people to follow along.
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The metaverse just seems more like an abstract concept right now but I wonder how long it will take for it to fully develop. For some reason, I have the feeling it will take at least 20-30 years before we can define it.
As for The Top 5 Metaverse Stocks To Buy, I think I saw an article about it a week ago or so. So it's not just Youtube videos.
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That is a good way to describe it: it is abstract at this time. Over the next decade plus, things will clarify as we move closer to it.
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Great article / post. I often think about how hype influences things over the short term yet when there is value and utility the projects and teams will have a lasting influence.
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It is like people claiming NFTs are in a bubble. That might be accurate. However, do not mistake something bubbling for being a non-factor in the future. We know there is going to be a lot of use cases for NFTs in the future.
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Now i can see the entire article! For some reason, only the first few sentences were showing in the mobile app.
At any rate, i am pretty sure as you are, that what hype is being shared is for marketing purposes! Lol old tricks which will continue as the 'real' metaverse becomes! It surely is an exciting time to be among the front lines and to see what is emerging before us! How on earth can one value the existing internet?!! There are so many layers to it. Many intrinsic in value, like my ability to receive a video call from grandma! Let alone giving a future value to the meteverse! It's so far beyond that! Not measurable by what we know now, maybe. Exciting. Definitely!! Great article. I always appreciate your contributions Task.
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Thanks for the support. Glad you enjoy my work.
Yes it is truly beyond what we can imagine at this point just like, the present form of the Internet was beyond what most could foresee 30 years ago.
There might be a few with some insight but, for most, we only can perceive a small sliver.
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You really shed a lot of let on metaverse in a way that a layman would find it very easy to actually relate to. I've been seeing diverse posts about it on twitter as well, I believe the hype is probably because the possibilities are almost unbelievable, but would it live up that hyper expectations? It's generally left to be seen. One thing you've stated, time would take it's toll to making it better
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The point I wanted to drive him is that it will take a while. We are very early in the game and things need to progress on many levels for this to become a reality.
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I very much enjoy reading your insights @taskmaster4450, thanks for sharing them! Both the frequency and quality of your posts amaze me! How do you do it!?!
I'll add a piece to this 'metaverse' thing from a network architects perspective... to me, the metaverse is more about how connected things are, and how interoperable they are amongst each other. We still have a ways to go before your Splinterlands NFT (game card) can be used in another game. At the same time we are very much evolving in that direction.
Crypto is the connecting glue, or 'protocol' if you will, that allows interoperability amongst disparate systems... much like TCP (transmission control protocol) and IP (internet protocol) allow for interoperability between different networks.
But as you've pointed out on a number of occasions we are still so early in the evolution of cryptography's merger with networking, that we are just now seeing some of the foundational peaces of the 'metaverse' being built... Cross chain interactions for example, which simply put, are cryptographic communication channels between different databases... different stores of information.
I often like to imagine it like brain synapsis being organically developed... and the 'metaverse' is what comes from all the synapsis interacting together. I think it's fair to say that we are in the 'zygote' stage...
The fact that the concept is actually growing... I guess that might explain all the pregnancy hype? LOL but... is it a boy? or is it a girl?
(I hope my humor comes across and your laughing ;).
Universal NFTs are another thing to consider. Having the value be the NFT instead of the attributes since those can be swapped out depending upon the game we are in. Then we move to another game, we get different attributes but the value is still there.
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Interesting article. I've always considered 'The Metaverse' to be like a multilevel digital representation of possible worlds/social hubs. As such it is really hard to define it as a singular entity. Instead it feels like it is the creation of a new technological interface for our basic human need form social bonds. Except that rather than being limited by the traditional channels of communication and limited by the scope of our current perceptions of time/space/possibility it is more open ended. Where one group can realize a reality different from another group which can be vastly different from a third, and so on.
I completely agree with you though we're are the very early stages of this cycle, the question though for me is how quickly we will pass through the other stages. Indeed, technological development is moving exponentially doubling around every 18months (I believe) and with this we see faster and faster leaps forward. It will be exciting to see if the early ideas/hype meet any of our expectations. Or if, in time, we'll look back and say that we never even imagined just how the future could look. In the meantime let's enjoy the ride, haha!
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Nice article @taskmaster4450 !
Some people are going to make money out of this hype and it helps to pump things up when there is not much there yet. I like your analogy to trying to put a price on the Internet. And we can define that better but as you say, the metaverse means different things to different people.
Exciting times ahead though!
Wow! Nice post :)
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