This was predictable.
Hollywood is cooked, at least when it comes to employment for many. Generative AI is going to take over the industry. This is one of the most exposed since it is not regulated nor are there safety issues in play.
Those two factors are what make an industry primed for disruption and it is coming.
AI is going to destroy jobs in the entertainment industry
CVL Economics did a study of what industry executives are thinking regarding AI and the impact upon their business (units).
According to the results,
the firm found that 75% of survey respondents indicated Gen AI tools, software and models had supported the elimination, reduction or consolidation of jobs in their business division.
This was taken with 300 senior and middle level executives from companies within 6 entertainment industries.
To break down the responses even further, we have:
According to the report, 55% of leaders expect sound designers to be most affected in the next three years. Over 40% see music editors, audio technicians and sound engineers as vulnerable, with around 33% anticipating impacts on songwriters, composers and studio engineers.
Unfortunately, for those employed, this is likely understating the issue.
Changing Outlooks
The problem with these surveys is the responses are based upon what we know at this moment.
We saw this with AI experts when surveyed about the prognosis regarding reaching AGI. A few years ago, the average was 80 years. In other words, the consensus in 2019 was we would not see it until after 2100.
What happened in the last few years?
Things exploded in the AI realm. ChatGPT changed everyone's outlook regarding this technology. Not surprisingly, the forecasts among these "experts" has been moved up.
As of the most recent study, done in 2023, the consensus was 8 years. Source
It went from 2100 to 2030 in a matter of 4 years. And this is from the leading AI minds we presently have.
What do you think the outlook will be with Hollywood and entertainment executives is the capabilities of AI keep progressing like we saw in the last 24 months?
The likelihood of the capabilities of the technology and, thus, job disruption will be greater than people expect. If the AI experts were underestimated what is taking place, we can almost guarantee that a bunch of entertainment managers are doing the same.
In Accordance With Technology
This is nothing new.
It is how technology works. Disruption is very powerful and, while it can start slowly, it keeps picking up speed. What we have taking place has not been seen in over 500 years.
The last major disruption of this type was the printing press. That radically altered the time to took to generate information. Naturally, the original was not sped up but the reproductions saw a major upgrade.
With software, we are seeing the time it takes for originals to be generated only taking a matter of seconds. Think about the time it takes to write an article. Compare that with one of the chatbots and how long it takes to spit out a few hundred words.
This is unparalleled.
Of course, for the moment, the capabilities still lag humans. That will not be the case in the future. Whether you are looking at text, video, or sound such as music, we will see them to continually get better.
What makes all of these even more disruptive is the fact that training and using these systems will never be as expensive as it is now. The rate of change in cost is outpacing even Moore's Law. This means we have more powerful software coupled with cheaper compute systems.
We are suddenly talking about a massive Flywheel Effect.
The cheaper software will only foster more computations, i.e. people using the systems. This will only further feed the need for more training.
There is one problem. Many are expecting a shortage of data. When we consider how much is generated, that is amazing. Nevertheless, these things are data hungry. It is why many are looking into synthetic data as a solution.
Either way, you can bet Silicon Valley will solve this problem.
As they progress forward, many in the entertainment business will find they are moving closer to being out of work.
And this is before we even enter Web 3.0 into the conversation.
Posted Using InLeo Alpha
Time to get a job as an AI prompt writer. We will always need people to tell the machines what to do and keep them in line!
We will see. The fear seems to be that we will not need that and the machines will proceed on their own.
Sounds a lot like Skynet to me. I know how that ends!
That’s crazy to think there will be a shortage of data. I need to look into synthetic data and see what that’s all about!
Guess it shows how much it needs.
Just data that is created from other data.
I think it's natural to underestimate how fast things are moving, since we look at it linearly when things are actually moving exponentially.
The availability of these tools for free or at a very cheap cost will be a great contributor to kicking off the Flywheel effect, then everything will move exponentially faster.
I think I've read the shortage of data somewhere else as well. They were saying that the AI are learning at insane speeds and there will come a point that they would have gone through everything. Unfortunately, they can't create something new/unique on their own. They can't invent a new art style or programming language, at least not yet. Until that time, I think we will see 'geniuses' pop up in web3 where they are able to introduce new information for these AI to use.