What is Quantum Computing?
Let me briefly explain what quantum computing is, and why everyone is so concerned with it. Quantum computing isn't the next level computer, in fact, it is quite limited. It is only good at certain tasks, but math is one of them. Cryptography foundation is built on math, prime numbers specifically.
Quantum computing allows for a computer to represent a state other than on/off or 0 or 1. In fact, it can represent multiple states at the same time. The reasoning behind it is very complicated, but it allows quantum computing to compute math functions extremely quick. This will trivialize cracking modern encryption methods.
Let's put this in perspective, if you were to attempt to crack 2048 bit RSA encryption, it would take you around 300 trillion years with the top computing hardware currenlty available to mankind. That same encryption could be broken in just over 100 days with a quantum computer potentially available in the next 10 years. Google and IBM both want to have quantum computers beyond this level within 10 years.
So why is it a threat today?
We take encryption for granted and have so for over 40 years. We trust it so much we leave our data everywhere in encrypted form. While this is considered safe for even goverment level data, it may not be in 10 years. The thing is though, large organizations and state actors can (and are currently) collect highly valued encrypted data now, and decrypt it in the future. Much of this data would still be critical in 10 year time.
Many companies and countries are putting billions into developing quantum computing. It has been assumed by many that countries are collecting encrypted data to SNDL (Store Now Decrypt Later). This can be used to infiltrate other countries or even their own citizens.
Unfortunately, there is little that can be done to protect yourself against this. A lot of times it is completely out of your hands are you are dependant on third parties to protect your data (for example your bank).
Blockchains will be a big target when quantum computing arrives. Everyone is aware of this and most of them are already working on methods to protect against this.
Post quantum encryption
Encryption is safe because largely because of how difficult is to compute very large numbers used by modern cryptography. Quantum computers won't have this difficulty, and we will need other ways to protect data. While these methods use very complex theories and not something I can easily explain, many organizations are hard at work to release new encryption techniques that use something other than large prime numbers.
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I agree with you one hundred percent! It will be a reality in the next decade and all our current encryption will become a joke. It's a good thing blockchains are preparing for this because it could be used to steal crypto and could permanently devastate the industry.
What's scarier to me is that I doubt the government or military will be ready and will be among the first victims. Like you said many states are stealing as many encrypted and non encrypted files as possible. That's why China is working so hard to achieve quantum computing!
First victims? More like the first guilty of using it against us! (government)
Then we will have the quantum computing pandemic!
Yep, and is one of my biggest fears in this space. This is why it’s crucial to not put all your eggs in this fun little crypto basket and move profits into hard assets like metals, real estate, or building a real world business. That’s my plan at least. For example, my profits have been going into my homestead farm, 3D printers, and bullets, lol. 😂
Best financial advice!
But… I am not a financial advisor, so we’ll call it life advice, lol 😂
I hope I have finance within my life! Hahah
Oh fo sho… Just saying, 😂
This + Ai in 10 years + exponential progress in that area + better quantum and better AI big data analysis,
yes everything is fucked, lmao
But crypto is not target number 1 by far, way more important systems are target number 1.
It also can take 20 years to come to this level beyond prototypes
I look forward to your posts on this important topic. !BBH
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I remember at university in my computer science classes in the late 90s talking about quantum computing. It was mostly theoretical at the time. It's both exciting and scary that we keep getting closer to the reality of having powerful working quantum computers.
I'm sure (or I hope) blockchain wallets will eventually update with more powerful encryption to protect us, but I wonder about all the abandoned BTC wallets. Seems like they may be free for the taking soon enough for the government or corporation that gets there first with their quantum computer.
I kinda got a thing for prime numbers.. you said large prime numbers.. I had to Google the largest prime number...
Looks like Patrick has to much time on his hands... seriously
Prime numbers are usually found by algorithms.
If you can discover a new reliable prime number algorithm you can become rich and famous.
Has anyone discovered 13 yet?
Will the general public even know when quantum computer's have become strong enough to break encryption or will malignant state actors keep it a secret?
I'm more interested in what else we are going to be doing with quantum mechanics. We're getting into some serious territory with where it might lead. Encryption will simply evolve, or as a species we will figure out something else...
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Thanks for this great explanation of what this all could potentially mean! I had no idea.
Yes I agree with you that quantum computing will make many of the current encryptions no longer effective. New encryption methods must be found to secure data. This is one task that has to be done in the near future.
It's funny how easy and simple it was for you to explain this 😄, thanks for the contribution ✌️
Interesting topic for sure and another concern for me is how few people understand the technology. There needs to be more undergraduate and Masters courses in our Universities catering for Quantum theory.
It's an area that any young engineer or tech student should be reading up on and gaining familiarity with even if it's not their major. Very interesting times ahead.
Yes, encryption that is not quantum-proof should really only be considered temporary encryption. And we really don’t know when quantum will be able to break modern encryption methods. Could be 10 years, or 20, or 5.
I was at a conference a couple years ago where the head of quantum for Microsoft gave an update on the state of the technology. Most of the limitations are purely engineering, not theoretical.
We know everything we need to know, we just need better ways to build the machines. Most of the needed advances are in material science. And I have no doubt that the recent advances in AI will fuel some of those needed material science advances.
A thought-provoking exploration of the current threat posed by quantum computing
I wonder how much technological balance there is in this? As in, as soon as someone builds "a better mousetrap," someone else builds "a smarter mouse."
Since this is a known situation, and we have known for a while... surely there musy be those who are working equally hard on developing countermeasures. Perhaps even those at the forefront of quantum computing, since I doubt they'd want their own encrypted data hacked by someone else's quantum computer...
=^..^=
A big issue will be the limited nature of quantum computing. You won’t see it in the hands by anyone but the largest organizations for the foreseeable future.
The solution then lies in quantum physics, probably. Difficult to explain and I have no way of inventing it myself. Has to do with some atoms and how some exist at all times but don't exist until they're observed combined with how they react accordingly to events in advance, before the actual event took place. In essence it would be like creating a virtual universe to hold the data and the key was already explained in a really basic shitty way. Could word this better but don't want to since no one will know wtf I'm talking about anyway.
nah, Quantum Computing is a hoax. To have quantum states near 0° Kelvin might not help with computing at all. And if it does we might have like 5 Quantum-supported Supercomputers world wide, that are most likely not even close to what people like you fear.
Also in a mathematical sense it should be quite trivial to crank up the bits on encryption and make it safe again. Sure the whole IT-Security apparatus would have to make a lot of old certifikates invalid and stuff, so in reality it might somewhat of a hustle, especially if you are only protecting against 5 dangerous machines.
The urgent need for organizations and governments to invest in post quantum encryption methods to safeguard sensitive data in the face of future advancements in quantum computing technology can't be over emphasized.